WebGIS of RIICE

The RIICE project
year one results and observations

Andy Nelson
REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES
Acknowledgements
IRRI
Tri Setiyono, Emma Quicho, Aileen Maunahan, Prosperidad Abonete, Arnel Rala, Hannah Bhatti, Jen Raviz, Pongmanee Thongbai, Nel Garcia, Gene
sarmap
Francesco Holecz, Massimo Barbieri, Francesco Collivignarelli
GIZ
Roman Skorzus, Jimmy Loro, Antonis Malagardis, Aniruddha Shanbhag, Jutathup Tanyaphituick,
Allianz
Michael Anthony, Thomas Heinz
SDC
Ninh Nguyen,Yves Guinand
National partners
PhilRice, PCIC (Philippines), ICALRD (Indonesia), CTU, IMHEN, NIAPP (Vietnam), CARDI (Cambodia), RD, GISTDA, DOAE (Thailand), TNAU, AICI (India)
Contents
RIICE project overview Remote Sensing background information Example products from the Philippines
Remote sensing of rice area Yield estimation Tri Setiyono Delivery via webGIS Arnel Rala
Accuracy of area and yield estimates Results & observations so far
Frequently asked questions

How much area was planted this season? What was the yield in each town or province? Was production more or less than last year? Was the harvest early or late? Was there a storm, flood or drought?
Where and how much area was affected? How many tons of rice were lost?
What DO we know about rice?
We know that it is valuable

value of forrice all crops Rice is valued at 150 billion USD a year Rice is grown on 160 million ha a year Rice is grown by 200 million farmers a year
Total value Value of crop of rice production production in USD in USD perper hec hec (for 120 crops)
We know many depend on it

90% of the worlds rice is produced and consumed in Asia Over 70% of the worlds poor are in Asia
Rice Consumption Annual consumption per capita <25kg 25-50 50-75 75-100 >100kg
Poverty Each dot represents 250,000 people living on less than $1.25 a day, 2005
We know where/when it is grown
Rice is grown in every country in Asia

Rice is grown in every month of the year Rice is important; politically, culturally, economically and nutritionally
We know rice is a vulnerable crop

Most of Asias rice is grown in the wet season Rice is vulnerable to storm and flood damage Late rainfall or lack of rain causes drought damage Opportunity to develop low cost crop insurance
Crop Insurance terminology

Indemnity-based traditional insurance
Single risk assessment and individual loss assessment where payout is based on actual loss
Named peril (i.e. flood), or multiple peril
Index insurance
An index is used for settlement rather than information from the insured unit
Weather index (rainfall, temperature) Area-yield index (average yield per geographic unit) Remote sensing (vegetation index, crop health)
Crop insurance provider viewpoint

Big market 25 billion USD in premiums Underdeveloped market in developing countries Government support to insurance exceeds 50% of premium value! Quality issues with the information required to develop insurance products to assess losses and make quick payouts Crop insurance usually runs at a loss, but opens doors to other products/loans/credit.
Crop insurance end user viewpoint

Rice farmers are generally poor Marginal livelihoods Vulnerable to natural catastrophes Low access to credit or other income Crop insurance often viewed as unavailable, expensive, not trusted, too slow to payout
Crop insurance R&D viewpoint

We know how to use remote sensing and crop modelling to map and monitor rice Need to develop better and quicker estimates of crop area, production and loss Need a reliable way to deliver the estimates Need to reduce cost of monitoring and to design more efficient sampling/fieldwork Need to train and educate actors
The RIICE project

Remote Sensing based Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging Economies Public Private Partnership, 3 year project 1. develop technology for rice crop monitoring and damage estimation 2. demonstrate low cost and timely insurance solutions based on that technology 3. build partnerships and networks to deliver rice crop insurance solutions, and 4. obtain government level support for food security applications
The RIICE project
National partners in eight regions across seven countries providing export knowledge, baseline data, fieldwork and monitoring
BARC ?
IMHEN
Thai RD TNAU CARDI CTU
IRRI PhilRice
RIICE partners. Coordinated by IRRI University or government agencies with expertise in agriculture and mandates related to rice agriculture.
ICALRD
From technology to delivery

The remote sensing data is linked to a crop growth model to estimate and forecast rice crop yield by district or village The rice crop is observed by remote sensing and fieldwork through the season, resulting in rice crop status maps
Area, and yield information are used to develop insurance products that cover the farmers shortfall in production due to natural disasters. Distribution channels (rural lending banks, cooperatives, rice mills) are being identified and trained to roll out the insurance product.
Local insurers sell the product through a distributor and reinsure the risk through an Allianz-led reinsurance pool.
Remote Sensing basics

weve come a long way since someone had the idea of strapping a camera to a pigeon
just some of the earth observing satellites in operation now
Optical remote sensing
19
Rice from optical satellites
Clouds are a problem
21
Radar remote sensing
22
Rice from optical and radar RS
How does radar work?

Water does not reflect any signal back to the satellite the image is black
What the satellite is seeing.
24

If there is a young rice crop, then some signal is reflected back the image is gray
25

As the crop grows, more signal is reflected and the image become light gray/white
26

Different stages of the crop can be detected if images are taken through the season = rice crop monitoring
Radar backscatter
grain filling harvesting
time
28
MAPscape-Rice & Oryza2000

MAPscape-Rice processing & product generation Earth Observation data
Rice area map Start and peak of season date maps Rice crop status maps Leaf Area Index maps Flood and drought extent (area damaged)
Crop calendar Crop practices Administrative units
Leaf Area Index field sites for calibration
Oryza2000 rice growth simulation model
Meteo data Soil data Varietal data Management data Crop Cuts for yield validation
Yield estimation and yield forecasts
Production and loss estimates
From national to local scale

June 26 2012 High resolution information on crop status
harvest scenescence peak tillering flooding water bare soil

Cosmo-SkyMed data ASI distributed by e-GEOS, processed using MAPscape-RICE
Crop Status in Leyte West on 26 June 2012
Rice monitoring examples

Late June, most areas have just established the rice crop [Blue]. Some areas still in land preparation phase [Brown].
harvest scenescence peak tillering stem extension flooding water bare soil
Crop Status in Leyte West on 12 July 2012

Mid July, area is a mixture crop in tillering stage [green] and recently established crop [blue].

End July, most of the cropped area is in peak vegetation or flowering [dark green] and some still in tillering stage [green].
Crop Status in Leyte West on 13 August 2012

Mid August, most of the cropped area is in peak vegetation [green] and tending to grain filling [yellow].
Crop Status in Leyte West on 21 September 2012

Mid September, most areas in grain filling stage [yellow], some still in peak vegetation [green] and some already harvested [brown]

End September, mixture of grain filling stage [yellow], peak vegetation [green] harvested [brown] A lot of variation in crop!
Leyte West Date of Start of Season, 3m

Most areas planted in June, some in July and some even in August
September
June
Leyte West Date of Peak, 3m

Peak vegetation or flowering occurred in July and August in most places but some patches were in June and some were very late in September.
September
June
What about flood/drought

Flood and drought are detected when the signal changes in an unexpected way
Radar backscatter
grain filling harvesting
time
Example 1: Early season flood

Flood damage? 40% of the rice area affected BUT Half of those fields had not yet planted rice when the flood occurred
Cosmo-SkyMed data ASI distributed by e-GEOS, processed using MAPscape-Rice
Example 2: Late season flood

Flood damage? 60% of the rice area affected BUT 25% had already harvested and did not lose their crop due to the flood
Cosmo-SkyMed data ASI distributed by e-GEOS, processed using MAPscape-Rice
Importance of monitoring
Flood Date 12 Jul 2012 30 Sep 2012 Rice cultivation area 5,600 ha 5,600 ha Rice cultivation area affected 40% 2,240 ha 60% 3,360 ha Planted rice area affected 20% 1,120 ha 45% 2,520 ha Difference in damage estimate 1,120 ha 840 ha
A map of where rice is grown not enough! Accurate loss estimates require information on the status of the crop at the time of the calamity. These estimates are tabulated at municipal level
Ground observations are vital
Ground observations are vital

Pre-flooding Flooding Establishment Pre-flowering Flowering Grain filling Harvest Post-harvest
Satellite Pass Field 1 Field 2 Field 3

. . . . . . . . .
Field 20
Regular monitoring is key

Monitoring from space and from the field Regular field visits improve the RS products and validates their accuracy Flood and drought can be detected with RS Area lost to flood/drought can only be assessed by remote sensing if images are available throughout the season
Crop modelling basics

ORYZA2000 crop growth simulation model, 30 years of research and development Requires input information on daily weather, establishment date, soil, nutrients Can estimate yield under water and nutrient limitations, i.e. it is a measure of obtainable yield assuming everything else is okay (no pest/disease etc.) Remote sensing information used to improve the yield estimation by introducing crop establishment date and observed crop growth status on key dates Remote sensing can thus capture spatial variability and introduce that into the model that would otherwise be unknown
MAPscape-Rice & Oryza2000

MAPscape-Rice processing & product generation Earth Observation data
Rice area map Start and peak of season date maps Rice crop status maps Leaf Area Index maps Flood and drought extent (area damaged)
Crop calendar Crop practices Administrative units
Leaf Area Index field sites for calibration
Oryza2000 rice growth simulation model
Meteo data Soil data Varietal data Management data Crop Cuts for yield validation
Yield estimation and yield forecasts
Production and loss estimates
LAI - Leaf Area Index

LAI is area of plant leaf per unit ground area. From 0 to 7 m2/m2 for a rice crop LAI represents plants ability to absorb and use sunlight, hence a predictor of yield LAI is measured in the field and used to calibrate a cloud model to map LAI using the RS imagery Thus RS imagery allows us to estimate LAI at key growth stages across a wide area
CCE - Crop Cut Experiments

Crop yield at the end of the season Measured in the field Rainfed yields are typically 2 to 4 t/h, irrigated yields are typically 4 to 8 t/h in our study sites This is our validation data for yield accuracy assessment
Mapping Leaf Area Index

Leyte West Leaf Area Index, 13 August 2012, 3m
Leaf Area Index

<1 12 23 34 45 >5
Yield: ORYZA2000+RS
Days after transplanting
-20 5 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 8
LAI O2K LAI O2K + RS CSK-LAI Yield O2K Yield O2K + RS Yield Obs.
7 6 5
LAI (m2/m2)
4
3 2
1 1
180
200
220
240
260
280
Day of Year
Yield (t/ha)
What about crop insurance?

Area base yield index (ARBY) insurance in Leyte, Philippines. ARBY does not provide pure indemnity for each individual insured farmer. It is not necessary to inspect individual farms either before coverage begins or in the event of potential loss. No loss is paid to any farmer in an area unless and until the average yield of that area as a whole falls below the expected or insured yield.
Insured NIS in Leyte
Partners in ARBY
Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation (PCIC): Insurer DA BAS:Yield Identifier Metro Ormoc City Credit Cooperative, Inc. (OCCCI): Distribution Channel GIZ: Product design, implementation and oversight National Irrigation Administration 8 (NIA 8): yield history NIA/BAS provide the yield history to set the trigger yield BAS provide the yield data for each NIS which is used to determine payouts
Past payouts
Result of ARBY in 2011:
2011 DA BAS ARBY kilos / hectare, wet cropping Average Area (NIS) Yield in cavans ARBY Trigger Yield in cavans, at 80% coverage Payout / hectare at 80% coverage
NIS
Difference
Bao Mainit HindangHilongos
2,953.46 2,628.38
65.63 58.41
63.464 63.464
2.166 -5.054
0 P 799.00
3,947.16
87.71
61.336
26.379
RIICE and ARBY

2012 Wet Season Compare the ARBY area and yield estimation method with the RIICE area and yield estimation method ARBY method used to determine payout, but RIICE used along side to build confidence in the approach (RS-ARBY)
sarmap maps the rice area PhilRice monitors the sites, yield data for payout IRRI estimates yield and puts all results on WebGIS GIZ, PCIC and partners assess results
NIS and crop cut location
ARBY CCE samples

Irrigation System MAINIT PONGSO Barangay Magsaysay P.Barrantes Cuta & New Road Bairan Liloan Sabang Ba-o Matica-a Magnangoy Doos del Sur Municipality Alang-Alang Alang-Alang Barugo San Miguel Sub-total Ormoc City Ormoc City Ormoc City Sub-total Hilongos Hindang Sub-total Total Number of Samples Inbred Hybrid 5 5 3 6 9 8 2 5 19 24 3 15 13 4 5 16 21 35 15 2 8 0 23 2 63 61 Total 10 9 17 7 43 18 17 21 56 17 8 25 124
BAO
HINDANG HILONGOS
Yield accuracy results 1

Yield accuracy at barangay level
Preliminary accuracy assessment of RS-based rice yield estimation
Barangay
Yield (ton/ha) ARBY CCE RS estimate
RMSE (kg/ha) 702
Amahit
Cuta Liloan Matica-a Sabang Ba-o
2.96
3.79 5.96 5.14 4.99
1.94
4.32 5.04 5.69 4.94
Accuracy (%)
85
Yield accuracy results 2

Yield accuracy at municipal level
Preliminary accuracy assessment of RS-based rice yield estimation
Yield (ton/ha) Municipality RS ARBY CCE estimate Barugo Ormoc City 4.59 5.36 4.38 4.85
RMSE (kg/ha) 392 Accuracy (%) 92
Municipal yield accuracy assessment is based only on those barangays where we had both CCE and model data
Comparison of yields/triggers
How do the ARBY and RS yields compare to the triggers?
Comparison of ARBY yield and Remote Sensing yield for 2012 WS
Municipality
Yield trigger at 95% (ton/ha)
Yield (ton/ha) ARBY RS estimate
Barugo
Ormoc City
3.62
3.74
5.12
5.31
5.63
5.56
Agreement between ARBY and RS yield estimates No payout in WS 2012
Next Steps
Creation of a Business Model to support use of Remote Sensing for Crop Insurance RS-ARBY Product approval by Insurance Commission; and PCIC Board Roll out of the RIICE WebGIS Finalization of the crop model and yield forecasting via Remote Sensing by sarmap/IRRI/PhilRice RS-ARBY Product development 2013-2014 RS-ARBY used for yield identification in 2014
Observations on PPP
Lack of clarity over respective roles of private and public sector Need for government support
Data infrastructure Education, training, capacity building Technical support on product design Creation of enabling legal / regulatory framework
Private partners often the innovators in distribution channels and delivery mechanisms
Observations on PPP
Expectations from the private sector are high Remote sensing is not a miracle solution
Monitoring from space still needs monitoring on the ground for validation.
Moving from demonstration to operation

Technological development is relatively easy
Confidence building is critical Everyone wants to know the accuracy & cost.
How accurate is the method?

Accuracy of area, yield and damage: actual and targetted
RIICE products Level of detail Field
Area
85%
Yield
NA
Flood area
Drought area
Barangay Municipality
Province
85% 92%
98%
Area accuracy assessment requires comparison data from BAS or another source Provincial yield estimate is based only on those municipalities where we ran the model
How accurate is the method?

Accuracy of area, yield and damage: actual and targetted
RIICE products Level of detail Field
Area
85%
Yield
NA
Flood area
90%
Drought area
80%
Barangay Municipality
Province
90% 95%
98%
85% 92%
98%
95% 98%
99%
85% 90%
92%
Area accuracy assessment requires comparison data from BAS or another source Provincial yield estimate is based only on those municipalities where we ran the model
Implications for insurance?

These are the first results from the first season of RIICE. Accuracy of area and yield are good. ARBY and ARBY-RS agree: no payout. Require four seasons of testing and development No reported flooding in 2012. No one wants a flood, but its hard to test the full method without one!
thank you www.riice.org

WebGIS of RIICE

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The RIICE project

year one results and observations

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Accuracy of area and yield estimates Results & observations so far

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Frequently asked questions

What DO we know about rice?

We know that it is valuable

We know many depend on it

We know where/when it is grown

Rice is grown in every country in Asia

We know rice is a vulnerable crop

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Crop Insurance terminology

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Crop insurance provider viewpoint

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Crop insurance end user viewpoint

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Crop insurance R&D viewpoint

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

The RIICE project

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

The RIICE project

Thai RD TNAU CARDI CTU

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

From technology to delivery

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Remote Sensing basics

just some of the earth observing satellites in operation now

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Optical remote sensing

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Rice from optical satellites

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Clouds are a problem

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Radar remote sensing

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

Rice from optical and radar RS

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

How does radar work?

What the satellite is seeing.

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

How does radar work?

What the satellite is seeing.

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

How does radar work?

What the satellite is seeing.

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

How does radar work?

grain filling harvesting

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

MAPscape-Rice & Oryza2000

Crop calendar Crop practices Administrative units

Leaf Area Index field sites for calibration

Oryza2000 rice growth simulation model

Yield estimation and yield forecasts

Production and loss estimates

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES

From national to local scale

harvest scenescence peak tillering flooding water bare soil

REMOTE SENSING-BASED INFORMATION AND INSURANCE FOR CROPS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES