DARK STATTER

A trip into the dark side of what numbers would tell us to do

Lets start in a happy place . . . Saturdays

No-one will remember your advertising 2,000: 47: 0

Because no-one finds it additive

The Ads Are As Good As The Programmes
37.5

32.5

27.5

22.5 DA/TA 17.5

12.5

7.5

100%

Largely, they are much more worried about other things

Explicitly worried
UK economy

90%
The ability of the Govt to deliver what is best for the country

Implicitly worried

Business greed/corruption/tax avoidance Global / eurozone economy

Inflation/Prices of goods and services Poverty/inequality in the UK Unemployment in the UK Local services cuts Rising energy prices Prospects for young people in the UK Public sector cuts NHS Environment/pollution Global poverty Banking system Global conflicts Benefit cuts Housing situation

80%

Discrimination against minorities Global environment Political corruption

70%

The rise of far right parties in Europe Rising unemployment among over 50s

Health of the nation Pension deficit Education system changes

Crime / violence

60%

Implicitly less worried

National security/terrorism

Explicitly less worried

50%
Unusual weather patterns in the UK

Not worried at all

The level of immigration in the UK

40%

30% -100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Whether youre a mum

Source: Asda MumDex

Or a teenager facing a lifetime with your parents 3mn 20-34s still live with their parents

UP BY

Source: ONS

1997-2011

As an entire generation of NEETs emerges

15% of 16-24s

Source: Department for Education

Whose expectations and experiences diverge fundamentally from the rest of their generation

37% rarely leave the house 33% suffer depression, 39% stress 71% say that with the right support they could contribute a lot to the country BUT 36% believe they will never get a job
Source: UCU University and College Union

The role of brands is rarely a positive experience for many Top 20 brands that make Britain happy
8.5%

Are there any brands that make you happy? (unprompted)

6.3% 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 4.8% 3.6%

3.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 2.1%

1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

Source: GNM

Even for your customers this is not a great scene

83

Ratio: % said brand makes them happy / % use the brand x 100

22

20 18

16 15 15 14 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3

Source: GNM

In fact, only 23% of consumers say they have a relationship with a brand
Source: HBR Three Myths About What Customers Want

And thats probably a research effect in itself:

So, making loads of ENGAGING CONTENT is the answer, right?

Well according to US brand marketers, maybe it is

The connections and spaces between are where social companies make their money

No-one is going to do what you want them to

Or arguably what the media companies want them to do: As Googs investment in YT pays off
Discovery Programming Demand Programming

68% Reach

64% Reach
Source: Monthly reach TGI clickstream 2013

38% Reach

But how does this translate to brand opportunity?

Source: Pixability

Does this add up?

258,000 videos 9.5bn views

Source: Pixability

= 36,821 views each

Well . . .
258,000 videos * 1,000 per video = 258mn spent on making branded videos Just adding one zero makes the PRODUCTION cost 26p per view Or 263 CPT FOR PRODUCING A VIDEO NO-ONE WILL SEE

For videos of laughable reach

Source: Pixability

Yet, YouTube has more channels with over a million subscribers than my TV set has channels

When Google goes down, total global web traffic decreases by 40%

Source: GoSquared

50% of all social traffic

36% OF GLOBAL INTERNET TRAFFIC IS FRAUDULENT

Source: Ebiquity

54% of display ads never appear in front of a live human being

Source: Comscore

Social spam is Up 355% in 2013

$9.5BN COULD BE WASTED THIS YEAR IN DIGITAL ADVERTISING

Source: Adweek

A quick interlude
I know half my advertising isnt working, I just dont know which half

Anyone remember this lot ?

From

50%
to 5% In 8 years
Source: RWT Boys 12-16 Xmas 2004 vs 2012

That local app youve made . . . ?

In the US apparently Apps have an audience of 52 million . . .

How many of the apps on your iOS or Android device are branded ones?

Speed of Twitter uptake

3 years, 2 months, 1 day = 1 billion tweets

48 hours = 1 billion tweets

The amount of content in your newsfeed DOUBLES every 12-18 months

Source: Andrew Boz Bosworth @ WPP Facebook morning

Source: Andrew Boz Bosworth @ WPP Facebook morning

The one thing Facebook users say about the advertising experience EVERYWHERE: Why cant you make the ads better?

In the average week less than 0.5% of a brands Facebook fans engage with the brand they are fans of

Source: Facebook Fans, A Fan For Life AdMap 2012

How (in)visible is what your brand has to say?

Brand storytelling will be increasingly affected by social visibility strategies

Facebook Organic Reach

Source: MediaCom benchmarks 2013 across 1000 posts

Social network user growth is starting to tail off. Innocuous looking maybe, but it matters

Mobile is now a major platform for social networking: 70.6 million smartphone users in the EU-5 visited social sites via mobile in late 2012

How does screen shift effect your (in)visibility, let alone your engagement or your depth?

This matters to everyone

Sources: Mashable & Digital Look

Classified - Internal use

It is also why a lot of the NPD focus is at the other end of the spectrum

Because no-one is thinking about your brand

Old school Lucozade film

So we need to find ways to try and make sure they do

This doesnt include complexity, having to add things together, or indeed . . . Just listening to the numbers and not doing anything

This isnt about

BIG

data

Common sense + numbers + insight + intuition (often)= good

Common sense + numbers + insight + intuition (often)= good

Common sense + numbers + insight + intuition (often)= good

Common sense + numbers + insight + intuition (often)= good

Common sense + numbers + insight + intuition (often)= good

Source: Martin Weigel