Site Index and Height Growth Models

for Japanese Larch & miscellaneous

Larch Species in Denmark
July, 2009

By:
Bidya Nath Jha
SUFONAMA M.Sc. Student (EMN 08001)

Thesis Supervisor
Dr. Thomas Nord-Larsen
Senior Research Scientist

Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen

1. Research Context: Problem &
Justifications
1.1 Larch: An Introduction & Importance.

• Adaptation
• Growth, Environment and Economy
• Demand and Deficit

1.2 Site Index Model for Larch sp. does not exist in
Denmark

• Andersen, 1950.........Site B Japanese Larch

• Schober, 1975.............German Yield Table

1.3 Existing yield table Ht. growth relation have

methodological limitation:

• Graphical interpretation
• Statistical objectivity, flexibility or measure: No
 2. Research Objectives

2.1. To develop dynamic site index models for

Japanese larch and miscellaneous larch species in
Denmark

2.2. To compare the predictive performance of the

developed models with conventional height growth
models for Japanese larch and miscellaneous larch
species
 Conceptual Research Framework
for site index modelling

Theoretical Practical Process for

Background Model development

Interaction abiotic factors (soil, Dominant Height as an indicator of

climate) with biotic factors (biota) site productivity

Establishment of Age Height

Variability of forest sites in their Relationship for a given species and
productive capacity site from periodic growth data

Global and local parameter Estimation

forest growth = f (site factors, time) for given function to establish such
relationship

Volume growth is the best indicator of Testing the predictive strength of

productivity, but is impacted by given relationship (model)
management input.

Height growth is least impacted by Model application and continuous

management inputs monitoring and evaluation
 3. Data for Modelling
•Data Collection

Summary of data used for site index and height growth

modelling.
Species No. of No. of Mean Mean no. Period of
Experimen Plots Plot of records
ts Area Measurem (Years)
(ha) ent per

Jap. larch 19 25 0.1528 plot

9 1918-
2008

Misc 23 33 0.1505 11 1918-

.larch 2008
 4. Methods

4.1. Data Preparation

• Regression for the Height (Naslund, 1936; Johannsen,

2002)

• Dominant Height Calculation (H100)

Definition= 100 thickest trees/ha

e.g. plot area =0.2 ha; then 0.2*100 = 20
thickest trees
• Age from records
 4. Methods
Approach and Equations
4.1. Algebraic Difference Approach-ADA
(Bailey & Clutter,1974)
• 1) Identification of suitable model:

• 2) Choose and solve for a site parameter:

• 3) Substitute the solution for the parameter:

4.2. Generalized Algebraic Difference
Approach-GADA (Cieszewski and Bailey, 2000)

• 1) Identification of suitable longitudinal

model

• 2) Definition of model cross-sectional

changes

• 3) Finding solution for the unobservable

variable

• 4) Formulation of the implicitly defined

equation
4.3. Selected Mathematical Functions:

Model I Model IV

Model II Model V

Model III

Model IV.1
 4. Methods
Model Development and
Testing
4.4. PROC MODEL SAS 9.3.1.
• Indicator Variable Method for
Simultaneous estimation of site indexes
and model parameter;
• PROC MODEL

4.5. Model Evaluation

• Performance Criteria
• Residual Diagnostics
• Linear Regression of Observed vs.
Predicted Values
• Leave-one-out Cross Evaluation
Criteria Formula Ideal

1. SSE 0

2. MSE 0

3. RMSE 0

4. R-Square 1

5. VR 1

6. MRes 0

7. |MRes| 0

8. RRes 0

9. IRRes 0
 5. Results & Discussion

Estimates of Site Index (S), height in meter at

age 50 years
Model Mean Maximum Minimum Standard
(Equation) Deviation

Model I 23.5160 27.1972 17.4593 2.5565

Model II 23.8160 26.5424 19.5444 1.9471

Model III 23.9858 26.4363 19.6324 1.6215

Model IV 23.5716 26.7320 18.5599 2.2114

Model IV.1 23.5791 26.7266 18.6240 2.1934

Model V 23.5057 26.9726 17.8843 2.3907

 Estimated parameter and related statistics for Japanese larch models
Model and Parameters Estimates Standard Error t P value
statistics
Model I
β 0.04957 0.00261 18.98 <0.001
γ 0.40916 0.0309 13.24 <0.001
Model II
α 29.84222 0.4247 70.27 <0.001
γ 1.517837 0.0693 21.92 <0.001
Model III
α 31.27321 0.6465 48.37 <0.001
β 0.036247 0.00243 14.89 <0.001
Model IV
γ 15.9346 7.8048 2.04 0.0424
α 1.678773 0.0600 27.96 <0.001
β 7379.672 3762.1 1.96 0.0511
Model IV.1 (fixed a4)
γ 17.44244 1.49 11.69 <0.001
α 1.674153 .0533 31.38 <0.001
Model V
γ 4 3.99E85 1E85 <0.001
β 0.049175 0.00258 19.08 <0.001
α 5.462307 0.2645 20.65 <0.001
Model IV.1
 Performance criteria of the applied models for Japanese
Performanc Model I II larch
III IV IV.1 V
e Criteria

SSE 175.6 177.4 236.2 165.6 165.6 170.8

MSE 0.7837 0.7922 1.0534 .7457 0.7425 0.7693
RMSE 0.8853 0.8900 1.0268 .8636 0.8617 0.8771
R-Square 0.9788 0.9786 0.9715 .9799 0.9799 0.9793
Adj. R- 0.9769 0.9767 0.9690 .9780 0.9781 0.9773
Square

Variance 0.9756 0.9756 0.9656 .9796 0.9757 0.9767

Ratio

MRes -0.002 -.0040 -0.0079 -0.0011 -0.0014 -0.002

5 4
Linear Regression of Observed vs. Predicted
Values

• Slope & intercept values very close to 1 and zero

respectively
• Simultaneous F tests reject the hypothesis
• R-square above 97%
 OLS Assumptions
1. Independence of Residuals

First order autoregressive Model Structure was used; error

term was expanded as

2. Normality of Residuals

• Statistical and graphical interpretation of model residuals

• Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests
• Visual Interpretation

3. Homoscedasticity ( Constant Variances)

• Statistical and graphical interpretation of model residuals

• White Tests
• Visual Interpretation
Miscellaneous Larch Model:
 6. Comparisons of models

Model IV (solid lines) and model IV.1 (dashed

lines) for Jap. larch
 Japanese Larch (blue-dotted) and
Miscellaneous Larch (black-smooth)
Model IV.1 and Danish yield table age-ht.
relation for Jap. larch (Andersen, 1950)
Model IV.1 and German yield table age-ht.
relation for Jap. larch (Schober, 1975)
Model IV.1 and other models for Jap. larch
from different countries and contents
 7.
•
Conclusions
Dynamic site index and height growth models are
developed for Jap. larch and misc. larch species in
Denmark.
• They found to be predicting dominant height without any
apparent bias.
• Cieszewski models performed better than selected
Chapman Richards function.
• Traditional Japanese larch models were found to be
predicting slightly higher than the developed models.
Comparison of miscellaneous larch models with other
species specific models produce contradicting results.
• Japanese larch models can be applied in Danish and/or
adjacent countries, for miscellaneous larch models external
validation before wide applications will be a good
recommendation.