Why a Long-Term View for Chinese Economy

An Introductory lecture EH207

Debin Ma Oct. 2012

150 Year of economic transformation through the prism of a city Shanghai in 1817

Shanghai in 1920s: one city, three governments

The Bund in about 1932:

Shanghai 1990 vs. 2010 as the show piece of the Reform era

What is this course?

This

is a unique course.

a 150 year perspective a comparative perspective a multi-disciplinary approach (economics, history, political economy, international relations, sociology, business).

Some notes about the course

This is not a typical history course, but familiarity with Chinese history will be extremely helpful. When needed, you should consult standard history textbook or internet sources on China. Neither is this an economics course but knowledge of applied economics will be useful. Be ware there is no set text but mostly journal articles or book chapters. Be prepared for debates and controversies and be prepared to be critical.

Why a long-term view

China is huge

In terms of population, it is almost five times the US, three times the EU, ten times that of Japan. Indeed, some of the larger provinces in China are nearly as large as Japan and Germany. China is a continent or a civilization all by itself.

But more than these,

it is the worlds largest common market unified by a single (written) language. has a unusually high degree of ethnic homogeneity for her size is also the single surviving civilization with a continuous history.

Some questions

Why was it so big and how did become so big?

Why and how did it survive?

Why was it so homogeneous? Why was it so continuous? And what do all these mean for the future of China and the world economy? These issues can not be properly interpreted without a proper understanding of history.

A map of Han dynasty China circa 2nd AD

Chinese Expansion: the Great Wall, the Grand Canal, the EastWest River system

A map of China today

The Maddison view of long-term Chinese economy

Some examples of the long-run historical legacy

The surge of Household Responsibility System as the restoration of a traditional agrarian property rights regime. The revival of national college entrance examination system and the rise of technocracy echoes the traditional civil service examination system (human capital).

The initial opening-up of coastal cities and the emergence of regional gap within China.

Questions on long-term economic growth in China

Why economic growth now? Why not 1950s? Why not 1911? Why not 1842? Why not 18th century (California School)? Why not 14th century (Needham hypothesis)?

What about economic growth in future

We hope by the end of the term, you will be convinced that a historical perspective is uniquely useful for understanding Chinas present and future.

Logistic Issues for the course

Two

teachers: Steve Ivings and Emily Tang. materials on the Moodle (updated periodically throughout the term). Lecture slides uploaded usually a little before each lecture. during lecture most welcome.

Reading

Participation

A slight change in format of exam

The basic idea of the change is to give more weight to essay type of questions.

Experience tells us that students are far more likely to excel on essay type of questions than doing well evenly across all questions.
The change will be in your favour and the details will be confirmed with you in the next lecture.

Any Questions?