Predicting Academic Performance and Attrition in Undergraduate Students

Mara Pita Carranza ngel Centeno ngela Corengia Laura Llull Beln Mesurado Cecilia Primogerio Francisco Redelico

INTRODUCTION
Improvement of EDUCATIONAL QUALITY

Matter of concern to all Higher Education Institutions

Develop

TOOLS to predict to what extent students are capable to:

- Reach a good academic performance - Finish their studies successfully

PURPOSE
Explore the relationship between
EDUCATIONAL APTITUDES (DAT)
ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE

ATTRITION

1530 undergraduate students from 8 different programmes of

a private university in Argentina

Accounting / Business Economics Social Communication Industrial Engineering / Software Engineering Law Medicine Nursing

DAT
DIFFERENTIAL APTITUDE TEST
Set of tests that measure different

Educational Aptitudes
- Abstract reasoning - Verbal reasoning - Speed and accurancy - Language / Spelling - Numerical ability - Space relations - Mechanical reasoning

Complete set defines a cognitive profile for each student

Why DAT?
(Bennet, Seashore, Wesman, Justo)

VALIDITY

Ability to predict the success or future performance in certain activities. Tests are consistent, the results obtained are stable, free of casual failures. Tests show low intercorrelation. The measured aptitudes of the different tests differ enough to justify the inclusion of all tests in the series. This is specially satisfactory if it is considered that each test was devised to have its own validity.

RELIABILITY
INDEPENDENCE OF MEASURED APTITUDES

DAT has a high enough reliability and a sufficiently low intercorrelation as to be considered a battery of tests with a good discriminative power.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Review and synthesis of published studies
INTERNATIONAL
The results of the standardized test scores are related to students academic performance, among other indicators, especially during the first year of the undergraduate courses.

ARGENTINA
Although it is difficult to find studies related to results of standardized tests, institutions share the same concern about the search of indicators: The studies surveyed are related to:
- socio-demographical variables - school background - performance in admission process - job situation - professional insertion expectations - personality, problem-solving and intelligence tests, etc.

RELEVANCE
Provide information to academic advisers.
Early detection of students that are potentially
vulnerable to suffer academic failure.

Provide empiric evidence to theoretical discussion

about this subject.

METHOD
Relationship between
EDUCATIONAL APTITUDES
DAT - Abstract reasoning - Verbal reasoning - Speed and accurancy - Language / Spelling - Numerical ability - Space relations - Mechanical reasoning

ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE
GPA Grade Point Average of the first academic year

ATTRITION
Student drops out studies

METHOD
SAMPLE 1530 first year undergraduate students from of a
private university in Argentina
- 8 programmes: Business -Accounting and Business Economics-, Social Communication, Engineering -Industrial Engineering, Software Engineering-, Law, Medicine and Nursing.

- Age: 17 to 20 years old

- Socio-economic level: medium to medium-high sectors - Enrolled in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005

METHOD
1. Exploratory analysis of data. 2. General linear model: educational aptitudes
related to students academic performance.

3. Multiple regressions: relationship of each

educational aptitude with academic performance.

4. Generalized linear model: relationship between

educational aptitudes and attrition.

RESULTS
Regression Model for each Course
Program AR Nursing Social Communication Law Engineering Business .01 .01 .001 .01 .01 VR .001 .0001 .000 .000 .0001 S&A .05 .0001 .01 .01 .05 p-value (< .05) NA .001 .05 .01 .05 L .0001 .000 .001 .01 S .0001 .000 .001 .01 MR .05 SR .001 -

R2 .34 .25 .25 .15 .14

Medicine

.05

.000

.000

.01

.001

.12

Source: Made by the authors

RESULTS
Odds Ratio and Grade of significance
Program Nursing Social Communication Law Engineering Business Medicine Odds ratio Grade of significance

1.14 1.2 1.82 2 2.14 1.4

.45 .10 .10 .10 .10 .40

Source: Made by the authors

CONCLUSION
DAT scores:
Allows estimating students academic performance in the first year of undergraduate programs. Predict moderately chances of attrition in some programmes -Business, Engineering, Law and Social Communication-, whereas in others -Nursing and Medicine- its prediction capacity is not significantly, in the statistical meaning.

CONCLUSION
Population enrolled uniform in age socio-cultural background economic background

Measure the impact of other variables -motivation, satisfaction, stress- in order to complement this study with other factors that can influence both academic performance and retention. DAT scores obtained have allowed designing personalized strategies of mentoring in order to promote good academic performance and to increase retention rates.

Predicting Academic Performance and Attrition in Undergraduate Students

THANK YOU!!!
mpita@austral.edu.ar