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Beyond NPV ………………………………… Real option
Traditional DCF
Management's flexibility not
captured
adapt
revise decisions
Real world
Change
Uncertainty
Competitive interactions
Real option
Now there is a fair possibility that within next two year market
volume of DTH service will expand significantly. However the
opportunity to accommodate this higher level of demand will not
be available unless a first stage investment is made now.
The mean of the distribution of possible NPVs associated with the option is:
(0.5) * 11 million + (0.5) * 0 = 5.5 million.
Using Eq. 1 we determine the project’s worth as follows:
Project Worth = (-) 3 + 5.5 = Rs 2.5 million.
Conclusion: Although our initial view of the project revealed a negative NPV
we find the option to expand more than offsets the negative NPV. Because
the project embraces a valuable option, it should be accepted.
Real option
Real options are “found” or created inside of projects. Their payoffs can
be varied.
Real option
The estimated oil reserve in the basin is 100 million barrels of oil.
The development cost is $1 billion.
The right to exploit the basin will be enjoyed for 25 years.
The marginal value per barrel of oil presently is $20 i.e.profit =R-C
Once developed, the net production revenue each year will be 4%
of the value of the reserve.
The risk-free rate is 8%.
The development lag is two years.
Real option
Valuation. . . . . . . . . .
Given the preceding information, the inputs to the Black-Scholes
formula can be estimated as follows:
d1 ={ln(1849.11/1000)+[.08-.04+(.04/2)]25}÷0.2√25
=0.6147 + 1.5 = 2.1147
d2 =d1 - σ √t
=2.1147 – 1.000 = 1.1147
E/e rt
= 1000/e.08*25 = $135.33 million
C0 = S0 N(d1) – E / e rt
N (d2)
Conclusion:
The managerial options discussed -- expansion, abandonment,
and postponement – have a common thread. Because they limit
downside outcomes, the greater the uncertainty associated with
future the more valuable these options become. Recognition of
management flexibility can alter an initial decision to accept or
reject a project.