Climate Trends in the Philippines

Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco

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PAGASA-DOST
PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The countrys national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider

MISSION: To provide weather, flood, climate and astronomical products and services to promote the peoples safety and wellbeing & contribute to national development
Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977

The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations. International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data ,
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PAGASA-DOSTs Observation Facilities & Equipment 5 Regional Centers

NCR (Quezon City) SOUTHERN LUZON (Legaspi) VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu)

NORTHERN LUZON (Tuguegarao)

58 Synoptic stations 23 Agromet stations 80 Climat/Rain stations 69 AWS 10M wind mast 76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI) 75 ARG 381 total 6 Upper air stations 10 Doppler radars (2 under construction) 2 Marine buoys 5 Telemetered major river basins 3 Satellite receivers

MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro)

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Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation

Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges
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Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfall

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006

TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

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Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)

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How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?

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Philippines mean temperature

Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values
1 0.8

Difference ( C) from 1971-2000)

0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Annual mean temp Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

-0.2
-0.4 -0.6
Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

Period
1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) 1951-2010 (60 years) Years 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Rate
- 0.0164 - 0.0108 C/year 2005 2010

-0.8

Year

An increase of 0.65C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

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Maximum & Minimum Temperature

Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile

(Hot days).
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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)

Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cool Days
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Classification of Tropical Cyclones

1. Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to 63 kph; 2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from 64 to 118 kph; 3. Typhoon maximum sustained winds is greater than 118 kph.

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Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North s. Pacific Period: (1948-2010)

Tropical Cyclone Frequency using 1x1 (1948-2010)

Visited by an average 19 to 20 Tropical cyclones EVERY YEAR

s.

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).

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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: 1948-2010
40

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Number of Tropical Cyclones

35
30

Five-year running mean Linear (Five-year running mean)

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

25 20
15

10 5 0 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 Year 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

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al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone the PAR., Phil. International workshop on the digitization ofclimatology Historical in Climate Data , Met-Hydro Congress 2006. the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region PAGASA April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

*Cinco,T.A.,et

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: 1951-2010

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International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region *Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines. PAGASA April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia

Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines

*Cinco,T.A.,et

al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above
Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above) Period: 1971-2010
12 Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs 10
Neutral year El Nio year La Nia year

(10), 2004 9, 1987

Frequency of TC

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
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Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period: 1948-2010
250

Number of Landfalling TC's

Number of TropicalCyclones
200

Number of non-Landfalling TC's

150

80

67 77 88

100 87 46 50 10 17 Jan 6 13 Feb 9 9 Mar 18 11 Apr 30 34 May 48 126 130 111 71 44 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 36 Dec 47

0 Monthly

Jun

Mean

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.6

3.4

3.3

3.1

2.7

2.2

1.4

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Tropical cyclone statistics in PH

DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010

DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

Number of Casualties > 300

TC NAME
TY_PEPENG (Parma) TY PEDRING TY FRANK (Fengshen) TY JUAN (Megi) TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) TY_RUPING

Date of Occurrence
Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 SEP 24- 28, 2011 Jun 18 23, 2008 Oct16 21, 2010 Sep 24 27, 2009 NOV 8-14, 1990

Total damage in Billion PhP 27.296722 15.552000 13.500000 11.500000 10.952198 10.846000

TC NAME TS Uring * TS Sendong (Washi) * TY Nitang TY Trix TY Amy TY Rosing

Date of Occurrence Nov 1-6, 1991 Dec 15-17, 2011 Aug 31 Sep 4, 1984 Oct 17-23, 1952 Dec 6-11, 1951 Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995

Casualti es 5101 1268 1029 995 991 936

Increasing cost of Damage MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC

TC NAME TY Reming TY Loleng Maximum Wind (kph) 320 (Virac) 287 (Virac) Date of Occurrence Nov 30, 2006 Oct 21, 1998

*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods.

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
TC NAME TY Feria TY Iliang TY Trining TY Susang TY Trining TY Ditang Maximum 24-hour rainfall (mm) 1085.8 (Baguio) 994.6(Baguio) 979.4 (Baguio) 781.4 (Baguio) 760.0 (Baguio) 730.3(Baguio) Date of Occurrence July 4, 2001 Oct 14, 1998 Oct 17, 1967 Oct 11, 1974 Oct 27, 1991 May 15, 1980

TY Anding
TY Sening TY Wening TY Trining

280 (Virac)
276 (Virac) 269 (Aparri) 269 (Masbate)

Nov 27, 1981

Oct 13, 1970 Oct 27, 1974 Dec 15, 1987

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Observed24-hour rainfall 455mm

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Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)

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IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

Legend: Severe drought impacts Drought impacts with major losses Moderate drought impacts Near normal to above normal condition Way above normal condition Potential for flood damage flood International the digitization of Historical , RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE workshop coloredon years are LA NINA Climate Data Severe the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region damage years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years PAGASA April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA

Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution

Neutral
El Nio La Nia

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Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Baguio City(Type I)
1200.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Legazpi City Type II

800.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581.0 461.8 124.6 23.7 Neutral El nio La Nia 16.1 14.6 40.3 99.9 354.4 459.6 777.1 907.4 639.6 258.1 162.6 20.1 10.2 6.6 16.1 46.4 265.2 489.41025.7 847.0 567.7 364.3 64.0 24.0 13.6 26.6 45.4 126.8 373.8 460.9 476.4 819.1 537.2 603.2 157.8 37.8

NORMAL 7100 321.9 209.8 185.0 163.0 169.9 259.8 279.0 236.1 261.6 353.8 486.3 563.1 Neutral El nio La Nia 285.2 187.2 191.7 142.4 184.2 248.4 251.2 252.4 283.5 375.9 426.4 422.0 245.4 119.3 122.2 105.4 126.9 223.2 284.8 252.3 252.5 226.2 420.1 419.4 407.2 290.7 267.7 235.8 212.1 225.0 229.2 253.5 233.2 351.7 578.8 714.8

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Dumaguete (Type III)

800.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Davao City (Type IV)

800.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 168.5 142.6 103.6 Neutral EL NINO LA NNA 84.8 64.5 60.2 35.6 70.0 135.8 136.1 94.5 112.7 152.7 148.2 120.7 43.0 24.2 13.9 17.8 50.2 103.1 122.3 122.2 104.1 136.8 109.1 83.4 114.9 80.8 66.4 91.9 125.6 164.6 134.0 137.2 177.9 206.6 214.4 136.2

NORMAL 7100 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181.0 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5 Neutral El nio La Nia 135.3 123.5 99.6 134.1 184.1 182.4 171.3 164.0 161.0 169.1 153.7 124.1 87.0 67.2 45.4 80.7 203.2 220.9 155.2 155.3 171.7 182.0 133.2 79.3 153.1 109.1 120.7 166.3 186.7 177.9 182.6 197.6 201.5 165.5 135.0 132.0

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Climate Trends in Manila

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Manila
Annual Mean Temperature (C)
Manila (1901 - 2010)
30.0 29.5 29.0

Mean Temperature (C)

28.5 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5

Annual Mean Temperature 5-year moving average Linear (5-year moving average)

y = 0.0201x + 26.513

26.0
25.5 25.0

1906

1911

1926

1931

1949

1954

1959

1969

1974

1984

1989

1994

2004

YEAR

An increase of 2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years)

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2009
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1901

1916

1921

1936

1964

1979

1999

Manila
Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila
28.5 28.0
TempearutreC

27.5 27.0

26.5
26.0 Manila

1901-1930 26.9

1911-1940 27.2

1951-1980 27.6

1961-1990 27.8

1971-2000 28.2

1981-2010 28.3

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Manila
Rainfall Anomaly in Manila
Period: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values)
2000

Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)

1500

5 yr moving ave

Rainfall Amount (mm)

1000

Linear (5 yr moving ave)

500 0 -500

-1000 -1500

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1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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Manila
Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila
2500 2000 1500 1000 500

0
1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009

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Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila

600.0

Rainfall Amount (mm)

500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 JAN 19.0 14.1 15.4 21.8 FEB 7.9 9.1 5.8 13.8 MAR 11.1 14.4 4.4 15.8 APR 21.4 19.8 5.3 39.1 MAY 165.2 152.8 101.5 187.1 JUN 265.0 265.5 226.5 313.4 JUL 423.2 382.0 576.1 293.3 AUG 486.0 494.7 429.8 430.6 SEP 330.7 335.3 375.9 389.4 OCT 270.9 223.7 169.7 276.7 NOV 129.6 111.5 89.3 175.4 DEC 75.3 56.6 47.8 89.2

NORMAL 7100 Nuetral EL NINO LA NNA

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Tracking the skyhelping the country

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