Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
15
Macroeconomic Issues and Policy
Stabilization Policy
Stabilization policy describes both monetary and fiscal policy, the goals of which are to smooth out fluctuations in output and employment and to keep prices as stable as possible.
2 of 40
3 of 40
Path A is less stableit varies more over timethan path B. Other things being equal, society prefers path B to path A.
2004 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 7/e Karl Case, Ray Fair 4 of 40
5 of 40
An expansionary policy that should have begun to take effect at point A does not actually begin to have an impact until point D, when the economy is already on an upswing.
2004 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 7/e Karl Case, Ray Fair 6 of 40
Hence, the policy pushes the economy to points F and G (instead of F and G). Income varies more widely than it would have if no policy had been implemented.
2004 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 7/e Karl Case, Ray Fair 7 of 40
Recognition Lags
The recognition lag refers to the time it takes for policy makers to recognize the existence of a boom or a slump.
8 of 40
Implementation Lags
The implementation lag is the time it takes to put the desired policy into effect once economists and policy makers recognize that the economy is in a boom or a slump.
The implementation lag for monetary policy is generally much shorter than for fiscal policy.
9 of 40
Response Lags
The response lag is the time it takes for the economy to adjust to the new conditions after a new policy is implemented; the lag that occurs because of the operation of the economy itself.
The delay in the multiplier of government spending occurs because neither individuals nor firms revise their spending plans instantaneously.
10 of 40
Monetary Policy
To make the monetary policy story realistic, two key points must be added:
In practice, the Fed targets the interest rate rather than the money supply.
The interest rate value that the Fed chooses depends on the state of the economy.
11 of 40
12 of 40
13 of 40
14 of 40
15 of 40
16 of 40
will rise, but so will the inflation rate (which is already too high).
If the Fed increases the interest rate, the
inflation rate will fall, but so will output (which is already too low).
17 of 40
DATE
1989 I II III IV 1990 I II III IV 1991 I II III IV 1992 I II III IV 1993 I II III IV
SURPLUS/GDP
- 0.020 - 0.023 - 0.025 - 0.026 - 0.030 - 0.030 - 0.028 - 0.031 - 0.027 - 0.036 - 0.039 - 0.042 - 0.047 - 0.046 - 0.050 - 0.045 - 0.046 - 0.041 - 0.041 - 0.037
18 of 40
DATE
1994 I II III IV 1995 I II III IV 1996 I II III IV 1997 I II III IV 1998 I II III IV
SURPLUS/GDP
- 0.034 - 0.027 - 0.030 - 0.029 - 0.029 - 0.026 - 0.027 - 0.023 - 0.023 - 0.018 - 0.017 - 0.013 - 0.011 - 0.008 - 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.004 0.007 0.006
19 of 40
DATE
1999 I II III IV 2000 I II III IV 2001 I II III IV 2002 I II III IV 2003 I II
SURPLUS/GDP
0.009 0.013 0.014 0.015 0.022 0.021 0.022 0.019 -0.017 0.014 -0.005 0.002 -0.014 -0.019 -0.020 -0.023 -0.024
Note: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the GDP price deflator.
20 of 40
1993 1994
During this period, inflation was not a problem, so the Fed had room to stimulate the economy and kept its expansionary policy.
By the end of 1993 the Fed was worried about inflation problems in the future, and decided to begin slowing down the economy.
22 of 40
1995 1997
Inflation did not become a problem after 1994, and the Fed lowered interest rates. The three-month Treasury bill rate remained at roughly 5.0 percent throughout 1996 and 1997.
During this period, the economy experienced good growth, low unemployment, low inflation, and a balanced government budget!
Principles of Economics, 7/e Karl Case, Ray Fair 23 of 40
1998 2000
Based on concerns about the Asian financial crisis, the Fed lowered the bill rate to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 1998.
The Asian crisis did not affect the U.S. economy very much, and the Fed began raising the bill rate on fears that the economy might be overheating.
Principles of Economics, 7/e Karl Case, Ray Fair 24 of 40
2001 2003
A recession was officially declared in 2001.
The Fed responded by perhaps the most expansionary policy in its history.
Many expected that the attacks on September 11, 2001 would extend the recession, but the growth rate of output was high enough to keep the unemployment rate roughly unchanged.
25 of 40
26 of 40
27 of 40
28 of 40
29 of 40
30 of 40
31 of 40
32 of 40
33 of 40
34 of 40
35 of 40
36 of 40
37 of 40
38 of 40
39 of 40
40 of 40