Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
External influences Developing numerical forecasts Core vs. flexible workforce decisions Affirmative action
General Economic Conditions, Job Growth, HR Movement Impacts General Economic Conditions
Product markets Labor markets Inflation Interest rates Foreign exchange rates Government regulations
Job Growth
Positive = Expansion Neutral = Stagnation Negative = Contraction
HR Movement Impacts
New hires
New labor force entrants Current labor force Unemployed Employed
Exit
Out of labor force Unemployed To new job
External Influences
Major types of external influence Important sources of information The influence of the educational system
Customer/Market/Competitor Analysis
Major Goals
Define the key targets achievable over the next 3-5 years in terms of business imperatives such as sales, market segments, finances, operations, technologies, employment, profits, etc. Remember that goals are the strategic profile of the organization.
Economic conditions
Economic expansion and contraction Job growth and job opportunities Internal labor market mobility Turnover rates
Labor demand
employment patterns KSAOs sought
Labor supply
demographic trends KSAOs available
Labor markets
Labor demand Labor supply Labor shortages Employment arrangements
Low unemployment
Few job seekers, high wages, fewer employer choices
12.0 Unemployment Rate
10.0
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Unemployment Rate
12.0
10.0
0.0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Trends in Employment
Decreasing ULC
Wages decreasing, productivity increasing, substitute labor for capital
110.000 Unit Labor Costs: Index 2005=100 105.000 100.000 95.000 90.000 85.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Decreasing LTR
Stability, commitment, long-term relationships
52.0 50.0 48.0
46.0
44.0 42.0
40.0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Economists often argue that, in the long run, wages will tend to equalize across countries through one mechanism or another, and that with immigration, the purchasing power of the poorest individuals should go up with more immigration even if they are falling further behind the wealthiest individuals
These employers are now starting to realize that nobody is in a better position than they are to make the case that they do need the workers and they do want to be on the right side of the law, said Tamar Jacoby, president of ImmigrationWorks USA. If we have to terminate 20 people, thats going to jeopardize 100 other jobs of people who are legal, Americans, people who are making a good living, said on anonymous source who runs a multi-million dollar electronics parts manufacturing firm. Source: NY Times, July 6, 2008
Immigration from 1980-2000 reduced the wages of native workers by around 3.2%, with larger effects for high school dropouts and smaller effects for the educated
George J. Borjas, The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2003
The effects of immigration are most negative for native born Hispanics, African Americans, and those with low levels of education; effects can be mildly positive or neutral for those with higher levels of education
However, research shows that for workers in information technology, wages do not decrease, and unemployment rates do not increase, when the number of H1-B visas increase
Zavodny. The H-1B program and its effects on information technology workers, Economic Review - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 2003
Immigration from Canada and Mexico into occupations is actually negatively related to long-run unemployment rates at the industry level
Dorantes & Huang, Unemployment, immigration, and NAFTA: A panel study of ten major U.S. industries, Journal of Labor Research, 1997.
Or perhaps not
Wages rise, drawing new people into understaffed fields. Immigration and offshoring can reduce skill shortages. About 31 percent of those 55 and older were in the workforce in 1984. That number climbed to 36 percent in 2004, and the figure will jump to 41 percent in 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Experience at CVS
Increases in technology, medical, and human services fields Decreases in clerical and manufacturing jobs
Management Research
Scientists Engineers
Arts
Writer Artist Musician
Markov Analysis and Large Group Action Plans Replacement and succession planning
Managerial judgment
Quantitative techniques
Based on formal projections Accurate in general for large numbers of positions Can only consider previous trends
2004
80% (n=4)
10% (n=.5)
10% (n=.5)
80% (n=4)
20% (n=1)
10
50-10=+40
5+5=10
10-(10)=0
4+1=5
5-5=0
4+.5=4.5
5-(4.5)=.5
(1) Entry sales (n=200) (2) Sales associate (n=80) 2004 (3) Sales coordinator (n=40) (4) General manager (n=20) Year end total Gap (+ hire; - downsize)
40%
(1) Entry sales (n=200) (2) Sales associate (n=80) 2004 (3) Sales coordinator (n=40) (4) General manager (n=20) Year end total Gap (+ hire; - downsize)
40% (80)
20% 15%
80%
10%
70%
10%
30%
50% (25)
20% (10)
70% (70)
10% (5)
15% (15) 80% (40) 10% (5) 70% (7)
20%
15% 10% 30%
25 50
80 20
60 -10
12 -2
Succession Planning
Specific individuals for specific jobs
Usually for upper management For promotion from within
Succession Planning
Builds specific training areas on top of replacement charts Sometimes performed with software as a developmental aide
Now completing in-house training course Shadowing sales mgr. Starting in house training course
Perf. mgt.
Core vs. Flexible Workforce Legal contracts and employment status Psychological contracts and employee commitment When core vs. flexible workforce arrangements are most beneficial
Psychological contracts
Informal agreements Not binding Implicit terms
Mutual assent: both parties agree Consideration: exchange of goods or services Legal intention: no illegal terms Contractual capacity: both parties of sound mind
Independent contractor:
An agent who exercises his/her own control regarding the physical details of work
Many western European nations have longer average durations of unemployment, which has been attributed to job protections
Discrimination law
Extending the NLRA protections, Title VII, ADEA, and ADA all require nondiscrimination in terms, conditions, and privileges of employment, which encompasses terminations. Also incorporates whistleblower provisions for these acts.
Public policy:
Cannot fire employees for refusing to perform illegal acts, whistleblowing, or exercising rights provided by law or civic duty (e.g., jury duty).
Hospital chain
Core employees? Flexible employees?
Affirmative Action
Definitions Critical themes underlying the debate over affirmative action Methods for implementing affirmative action
Small group
Come up with the three most common free association words Develop a consensus on the facts of affirmative action Develop a consensus on what affirmative action isnt
Attitudes assed as
Evaluation of a companys typical affirmative action plan on a 1-7 scale Evaluation of a hiring policy where there are two candidates with exactly the same qualifications, and Blacks are underrepresented in the company
Kravitz & Klineberg: Reactions to Two Versions of Affirmative Action Perception that
procedures give unfair advantage was a primary predictor of preferences Those who though there was discrimination against African Americans preferred both procedures Republicans and Whites disliked the typical procedure, but did not object to the tiebreak
Focus here is on the typical program Different predictors for each group. White preferences for typical were easiest to model (highest multiple R) Results were much weaker for the tiebreak procedure
Clarence Thomas
Opposing vote on affirmative action at UMich it is an open question today whether their skin color played a part in their advancement.
There is division with communities of minorities regarding the potential stigmatizing influence of AA
Sample language
(Employer's Name) will take Affirmative Action to ensure that all employment practices are free of such discrimination. Such employment practices include, but are not limited to, the following: hiring, upgrading, demotion, transfer, recruitment or recruitment advertising, selection, layoff, disciplinary action, termination, rates of pay or other forms of compensation, and selection for training, including apprenticeship.
Males
Females
CRA 1991
No within-group norms No quotas
Staffing
Preferring certain groups if qualifications are equivalent Providing additional training
UMich undergraduate
Cannot give points