Selling&Teaching FD

Selling and Teaching Foresight Development
Tips and Tools for Foresight Educators
World Future Society

July 2008 Washington, DC
John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation

Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
What is Accelerating Change?

An Interesting and Unexplained Phenomenon
Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are

Acceleration Studies Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society (STBS), at 2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.
Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University

2007 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

We practice evolutionary developmental (evo devo) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations.
Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:

Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems Increasing technological autonomy, and Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On

A Developmental Spiral
An unexplained physical phenomenon.

(Dont look for this in your current
physics or information theory texts)

The Developmental Spiral


Homo Habilis Age Homo Sapiens Age Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age Agricultural Age Empires Age Scientific Age Industrial Age Information Age Symbiotic Age Autonomy Age Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs 40,000 yrs 7,000 yrs 2,500 yrs 380 yrs (1500-1770) 180 yrs (1770-1950) 70 yrs (1950-2020) 30 yrs (2020-2050) 10 yrs (2050-2060) 2060
What is Foresight Development?

Slightly New Packaging of an Old Friend
Foresight Development
Foresight Development is: Futures Studies Education plus Personal Foresight Skills Practice
Course Description: Foresight is the act of looking to the future. This course helps you learn better global, business and personal foresight, so you can better enjoy and manage your own future. This course will explore the big picture history of accelerating change from universal, historical and technological perspectives, and consider global trends that are affecting individuals, society, businesses and governments. Additionally, the course will examine how organizations make bets on the future, and gives the student a chance to explore career prospects in a variety of fields. Finally, discussion of how biology, psychology, community and culture help and hinder personal thinking about the future will be discussed. We will explore four fundamental foresight skills: creating the future (innovating products and services); discovering the future (models, trend identification and analysis); planning the future (developing shared goals and processes); and benefiting in the future (achieving measurable positive environmental, social, or economic results). Assignments will be personalized to your own foresight goals, and include brief readings, writing, discussions, debates, visuals, film, podcasts and games
Were Just Beginning to Connect Up
Foresight Networks
De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological Cephalization of Earth

"No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively." Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition
Global Futures Network: Foresight Professionals, Future-Oriented Specialists, Foresight Educators & You!
A public, community-edited People, Orgs, and Resources directory for emerging global foresight culture. FuturesNetwork.org
GFN is a directory of the best online social networks (Shaping Tomorrow, GFN Facebook, GFN LinkedIn), social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences, websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!
Foresight Professionals and Foresight Educators Two Global Lists

FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators, Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education

FERN (FERNweb.org) is a global community for foresight educators, students, alumni, and advocates of foresight education.
It networks foresight educators, the ten existing academic programs in foresight/futures studies (offering credentials to become a foresight educator), MS and PhD students and alums, and seeks to help develop open source futures/foresight materials, courses, and new academic programs globally.
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe
Improving foresight through better theories of universal change. EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems.
Selling Foresight Development

A Few Tips and Techniques
University of Advancing Technology

Dynamic Private University, Innovative Programs, Technology-Focused. Tempe/Phoenix, AZ 1400 Students Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing technology to become innovators of the future. 14 Bachelors Degrees MS in Technology Studies MS in Artificial Life Programming
Where are the U.S. Undergraduate Courses in Foresight Development?

Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private university in Taiwan Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995. Why not here?
FD Allies - Career Services Center

Career Services Center

Very few undergrads use it more than one month before graduation, even for summer internships! Get the stats so you can show the problem. Design Industry Research, Mentoring, Internship and Resource Building programs in conjunction w/ the Center. Key: Students get credit for their own career searches, share their knowledge with later classes.
FD Allies Business/Entrepreneur/Innovation Dept/School/Center

Business/Entrepreneur/Innovation Dept/School/Ctr

Every student needs to learn to deal with change. Every student needs to save and invest for the future. Every student comes up with new ideas during their careers, or participates on a team coming up with new ideas or business processes, and needs to learn how to evaluate and implement them. Students need to understand the innovation mindset, the customer/client, and what makes a new or ongoing enterprise successful Innovation and competitiveness are national priorities. Innovators/business minded students are among the best alumni (measured by participation and giving).
FD Allies - Alumni Center

Alumni Center

Alumni giving and alumni interest is usually low, and starts late. Get the stats so you can show the problem. Alumni Research, Mentoring, and Internship programs in conjunction w/ the Center. Case Study Presentations on the Life Stories of Distinguished Alumni in FD Course. Key: Students get credit for researching and reaching out to alumni, share their knowledge with later classes.
FD Allies Special Projects per Student Interest (Optional in the FD Course)

Library
Learning reference and information sciences skills

Power User IT/Web proficiency Using tools for prototyping. Working with outside groups (TechShop).
Computer Center
Shop/Vo-Tech/Industrial Arts Dept/Center

FD Vision Foresight Resource Center (FRC)

Foresight Resource Center (FRC)
Can live in the Career Services Center, Library, a Sponsoring Dept (Business, etc.) or Independently Foresight Speaking Topics/Research/Pubs by Faculty
Faculty Benefits
Student Benefits
Foresight Resources by Company, Industry and Major

University Resources Town/City/County Resources State/National Resources Global Resources
Levels of Scope (local being highest priority)

Social Events, Student Government
Foresight / Futures Studies STS Parallel

Like science and technology studies (STS), a similarly cross-disciplinary activity, foresight and futures MS and PhD programs can live in a wide range of schools and departments at a university. In the ideal case, such programs exist as independently-funded interdisciplinary centers at the university, able to collaborate on foresight projects with departments and centers across the campus, as well external universities, government, and corporate clients.
A Brief History of Foresight / Futures Studies: A Century of Minimal Formal Scholarship

1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration 1930, William F. Ogburn, Presidents Committee on Social Trends 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.) 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future 1967, World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation Institute for the Future 1970, Rand Graduate Institute (PhD in Policy Analysis); Alvin Toffler, Future Shock 1971, U. of Hawaii, PhD in Futures Studies (Poli. Sci.) 1974, U. of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S. 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden; Inst. for Alternative Futures 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation 1987, Global Business Network 1995, Tamkang U., Center for Futures Studies 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines 2003, Acceleration Studies Foundation
Foresight Development: Future Creation, Discovery, and Management

Futures Studies is concerned with three Ps and a W, or Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events). In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage (CDM) the future. Creation (Possible) personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking Discovery (Probable and Wildcards) forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research Management (Preferable) environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
Global Primary Foresight / Futures Studies Programs: Five PhDs, Eleven Masters An Emerging Discipline
AUSTRALIA 1. Swinburne U. of Tech., MS,PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.). FINLAND 2. Turku School of Econ. and Finland Futures Academy. MS,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ. and Bus. Admin.). FRANCE 3. CNAM, PhD in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin, Engrg). ITALY 4. Da Vinci Online U, MS in Scenarios for Innovation Mgmt. MEXICO 5. Monterrey Inst. of Tech, MS in Strategic Foresight PORTUGAL 6. Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa, MS in Foresight, Strategy & Innovation SOUTH AFRICA 7. U. Stellenbosch and Inst. for Futures Resrch. M.Phil,PhD in Futures Studies (Econ/Mgmt). TAIWAN 8. Tamkang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies. MA in Futures Studies (Education). 9. Fo Guang U. and Grad. Inst. of Futures Studies, MA in Futures Studies (Sociology) UNITED STATES 10. Regent University, MA in Strategic Foresight (Bus. Admin.) 11. U. Hawaii. MA,PhD in Alternative Futures (Pol Sci). 12. U. Houston, MS in Studies of the Future (Tech).
Los Angeles New York See accelerating.org/gradprograms.html Palo Alto
A Century of Foresight Scholarship, But Still No General Theory of Foresight

Fundamental Questions Remain: What is predictable? What is intrinsically unpredictable? What long-range forces act on complex systems, besides natural selection? Does history have directionality?
Recent scientific ideas, such as evo devo theory, provide the beginnings of a framework for answers to such questions.
Some Foresight Models

A Brief Overview
Foresight Development: Twelve Types of Futures Thinking

\Fu"tur*ist\, n.
One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.
Social Types
Methodological Types
Preconventional Futurist Personal Futurist Imaginative Futurist Agenda-driven Futurist Consensus-driven Futurist Professional Futurist
Critical Futurist Alternative Futurist Predictive Futurist Evo-devo Futurist Validating Futurist Epistemological Futurist
See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html
Foresight / Futures Studies - Overview

Foresight, also known as futures studies (FS) is a transdisciplinary educational program that seeks to reliably improve one's ability to anticipate, create, and manage change. It can be practiced in a variety of domains (scientific, technological, environmental, economic, political and societal), on a variety of levels/scales (personal, organizational, societal, global, universal), and with a variety of disciplines/specialties (theories and methods). Anticipating, creating, and managing change in our increasingly fast-paced, technological and globalized world is a difficult yet worthy challenge.
Three Types of Foresight Studies: Futures, Development, and Acceleration

Foresight / Futures Studies Possible, Probable, & Preferable change (scenarios, trends, strategy) Development Studies (Developmental inevitability) Predictable and statistically irreversible change (emergences, phase changes) Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments) Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in todays fast-paced and poorly modeled world. Nevertheless, there are few primary academic programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years), and none in DS or AS (by name at least).
Foresight MS or PhD Program Scope and Prereqs

We suggest an MS or PhD foresight/futures programs should provide basic proficiency in all the primary foresight specialties (the core curriculum of futures studies), and at least a conceptual introduction to the secondary specialties. Electives and thesis topics should be possible in both primary and secondary specialties. We also propose that the best foresight programs should satisfy all of the following requirements: Ideal Admission Prerequisites 1. An undergraduate degree (foresight work needs context and maturity, it is best as an MS-and-above degree) 2. Applied, specialized, real-world experience (3+ years incoming experience after undergrad degree) 3. Science, tech, and history (econ, political and social) prereqs or testing, with mandatory deficit remediation Ideal Program Requirements 1. Broad-based, balanced, integral curriculum (all quadrant, all level, all discipline, globally- and accel-aware) 2. Considers both evolutionary (possible and reversible) and developmental (probable and irreversible) change 3. Measurably improves knowledge (pre- and in-program testing) 4. Measurably improves skills, incl. prediction and change mgmt (validated via prediction markets, tests, etc.) 5. Transdisciplinary. Foresight students should become subject matter experts (SME's) in more than one discipline
UGSOP Systems Model

We explore five systems levels in relation to foresight, starting big picture and doing an inward spiral: 1. Universal systems (science, systems theory, and spirituality) 2. Global systems (technology, environment, and global problems) 3. Societal systems (socio-economic, socio-political, and socio-cultural) 4. Organizational systems (entrepreneurship, management, cooperation, activism, family) 5. Personal systems (aesthetics, self-development, tools, health, wealth, other social impact)
STEEPS3 Scanning Categories Model

We consider eight categories in relation to foresight: 1. Science issues (general science, general systems theory, cognition science and systems theory) 2. Technology issues (computing, engineering, automation, virtualization, transparency, biotech) 3. Environment issues (resources, commodities, energy, biodiversity, pollution, catastrophes, sustainability) 4. Economics issues (entrepreneurship, capitalism, globalization, aid and development) 5. Political issues (democracy, sustainability, rights, migration, governance, law, defense, crime) 6. Social-Big (S1) issues (education, media, religion, demographics) 7. Social-Medium (S2) issues (organizational, social activism, subcultures) 8. Social-Small (S3) issues (personal, relationships, psychology, family, aesthetics, health)
FD Nomenclature
Framework/Learning Paradigm

The Learning Paradigm (World-View, Foundational Philosophical Assumptions, Goals) Used by an Educator Manifests as the Learning Objectives of the FD/FS program (Objectives are Implicitly or Explicitly tied to the Framework). Hypothetical and ideally empirically testable models of structure, function, and dynamics of some system Pragmatically discovered algorithms, practices, and talents applicable to some system.
Theories
Methods/Skills
Knowledge
Historical and current information used to improve construct framework and improve theories and methods
Discrete sets of Theories, Methods, and Knowledge taught by educators as specialties or disciplines.
Specialties/Disciplines
ASFs Primary & Secondary Foresight Ed Specialties

Primary Foresight Specialties (24)
Secondary Foresight Specialties (24)

Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment Cognitive and Positive Psychology Collaboration, Facil., and Peace/Conflict Studies Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking Ethics and Values Studies Evolution Studies Forecasting and Modeling (advanced) Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Integral Studies and Thinking Investing and Finance (Long-Term) Leadership Studies and Organizational Developmnt Library Science, KM, and Decision Support Long-Range and Urban Planning Political Science and Policy Studies Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Preferential Surveys/Polls and Market Research Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Science and Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt. Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Strategic Planning Sustainability Studies
Alternative Futures Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Critical Futures and CLA Development and Acceleration Studies Emerging Issues/ Technology Analysis Environmental/ Horizon Scanning Ethnographic Futures Forecasting and Modeling (basic) Foresight Frameworks and Foundations History and Analysis of Prediction Images of the Future Personal Futures/ Foresight Development Prediction Markets Predictive Surveys/ Delphi Roadmapping Scenario Development and Backcasting Scenario Planning Strategic Foresight Systems Thinking Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech Trend Extrapolation Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Weak Signals Wildcards
Other Foresight-Related Specialties (45, a partial list)

Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences | Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography | History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics | Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy | Tourism | Urban Studies
3Ps Skills / CDM Skills Model

In terms of foresight skills, well use the classic 3Ps Skills Model, and practice seeing and analyzing Possible, Probable, and Preferable Futures. This model was first developed by Roy Amara, President and CEO (1970-1990) of one of the first futures think tanks, the Institute for the Future, founded in 1968. Another name for this, based on the actions involved, is the CDM Skills Model, as it is about:
1. Creating/Envisioning a range of Possible futures 2. Discovering/Predicting the most Probable futures 3. Managing/Measuring toward Preferable futures.
Primary and Secondary Specialties Classified by Amaras 3Ps/Evo Devo Foresight Framework
Roy Amara's 3P's framework can be used to group specialties that explore the Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans). This is also an Evo Devo framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures.
Jim Dators Four Futures (GBAS)

The Key Images/Stories/Components of Emergent Change

First cited in: Perspectives in Cross-Cultural Psychology, Jim Dator, Academic Press, 1979
Wilbers Integral Life Skills Framework

The philosopher Ken Wilber (A Brief History of Everything) proposes the following Integral/Four Quadrant Framework to categorize fundamental complementary processes of human understanding and change.
ASFs Integral Foresight Skills Framework

We see four fundamental foresight skills, creating, planning, benefiting, and predicting, which map to Wilbers four quadrants of life experience.
Creating/Innovating "Seeing and making the future things, images, and ideals I want" Planning/Negotiating "Getting consensus and forming strategies for the future we want."
Benefiting/Measuring "Objectifying and measuring my progress toward a better future." Predicting/Discovering "Predicting and discovering how the system is moving toward the future."
Learning how and when to use all four of these foresight skills will make you a well-balanced or 'integral' futurist. Neglect any one of these and you will have an incomplete and underdeveloped foresight model and skillset. For example, many self-proclaimed futurists lack an adequate knowledge of science and systems, and may even state that "the future cannot be predicted." But science and history reveal extensive pattern and predictability, as long as we approach predictability from a statistical or probabilistic framework. As forecasting and actuarial work show, many well-established and/or well-understood trends and cycles allow insights into complex aspects of society. There Los Angeles are also futurists who love to create/imagine and even plan, but who never measure the benefit (or lack of benefit) New York on execution (or lack thereof) of their plans. Achieving competence in all four 'integral' skills is necessary if one is to Palo be Alto a 'whole futurist' with broad social and process effectiveness.
Integral Foresight Practices: Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IPBP)

Innovating/Creating (I) Thinking and acting by personally preferred futures Planning/Negotiating (We) Thinking and acting by social consensus plans
Benefiting/Measuring (It)
Thinking and acting by objectively measurable results Predicting/Discovering (Its)
Thinking and acting by statistically predictive forecasts
Integral Foresight Practices: Innovating, Planning, Benefiting, Predicting (IBPB)

I (Individual/Self) Creativity-Driven Futures
It (Organizational/Contractual) Benefit-Driven Futures
lnnovating
Tech, Culture, Art, Philos We (Social/Kinship) Consensus-Driven Futures
Benefiting
Econ-Political Its (Global/Species) Research-Driven Futures
Planning
Social-Political
Predicting
Science, Systems
Integral Foresight Model: Possible, Preferable, and Possible Futures

I (Individual/Self) Creativity-Driven Futures
It (Organizational/Contractual) Benefit-Driven Futures
lnnovating
Tech, Culture, Art, Philos We (Social/Kinship) Consensus-Driven Futures
Benefiting
Econ-Political Its (Global/Species) Research-Driven Futures
Planning
Social-Political
Predicting
Science, Systems
Futures Studies is about Three Ps and a W: Possible, Preferable, and Probable Futures (plus Wildcards) Roy Amara
Some Limits and Benefits of Models

Limits: Biased. These are the most important factors. Oversimplified. There are other important factors. Abstract. They may not correspond to reality. Inaccurate. They may be incorrect.
Benefits: Consensual. They help us see what some group sees, not just what we see. Clarifying. They show categories, forces, interactions we may have overlooked. Balancing. They help us pay attention more across the spectrum of generally accepted importance. Focusing. They help us look better at the things we are seeing (drill deep in any subject).
Foresight Development @ UAT

Inaugural Course Overview
Our Open Access, CC-Licensed Course Wiki

Syllabus Teaching templates Assignments Resources Course slides available to foresight educators on request. Visit: http://foresightdevelopment.wetpaint.com
Foresight Development Lectures (Unit I)

Unit I. The Big Picture (Weeks 1-4) Intro to and history of futures studies, theories of universal change, and the unique nature of our timescientific and technological progress that is likely to run faster every year for the rest of our lives. Week 1 Intro to Futures Studies Week 2 Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science Week 3 Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part I Week 4 Accelerating Change and the Future of Technology, Part II
Foresight Development Lectures (Unit II)

Unit II. Global and Societal Foresight (Weeks 5-9) Forces and choices affecting our planet and our socio-economic, sociopolitical, and socio-cultural environments. Week 5 Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models Week 6 Global Problems and Priorities Week 7 Economics and the Future of Capitalism Week 8 Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy Week 9 Culture, Media and Education in a Network Society
Foresight Development Lectures (Unit III)

Unit III. Business and Organizational Foresight (Weeks 10-11) Forces and choices shaping the business and organizational world, the many social definitions of success, and practical success strategies. Week 10 Biz-Org Leadership, Innovation, Learning, and Predicting Week 11 Biz-Org Planning, Consensus-Bldg, Benefiting, and Metrics
Foresight Development Lectures (Unit IV)

Unit IV. Personal and Career Foresight (Weeks 12-15) Using foresight in your personal life and future careers. Finding your own strengths, passions, vision, and voice, and navigating an increasingly option-rich future, "present trends extended" (PTE). Week 12 Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning Week 13 Personal and Career Learning and Predicting Week 14 Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating Week 15 Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring
Web 2.0 Tools for FD Course A Brief List

DOAJ. Directory of Open Access Journals, scientific and scholarly. Full text. Free. Docstoc. Sharing business, legal, and other professional documents. Free. GDocs and Spreadsheets. Good basic collaboration platform. Free. GMail and GCalendar. Clean, fast, reasonably full-featured. Free basic. GReader. Great tool for organizing RSS feeds and tracking site updates. Free. iGoogle. Fast, customizable, reasonably useful home page. Free. LibraryThing. Catalog & find others with the same books. Free basic. 200K users. Linqia. Search tool for online groups & social networks, by keyword interest. Ning. Create your own full-featured social networks. Free. Plaxo Pulse. FB-like business network. Free. 13M Plaxo users (not Pulse). Slideshare. Largest community for publicly sharing your presentations. Free. SmugMug. Best fee-based photosharing. Document your life. $40/yr. 300K users. Spock. A search tool for finding people by interest. Free. 80M "indexed" people. Wetpaint. Easy personal or enterprise wikis. Free basic. 600K wikis (+ this site). Xing. For business networking. Free basic. 4M users. Yelp. Good reviews of local businesses and services. Democracy in action! Free.
Personal Foresight System used in FD Course: Getting Things Done (GTD), GDocs, GCal
The Core GTD System: 1. Actualizer Doc (Done Items, Next Items, Waiting For Items) 2. Projects Doc
(Multistep Items)
3. Someday/Maybe Doc
(Long term/low priority)
Transfer your Actualizer record once a month to Archives Doc. Annotate as you transfer. How could you have been more foresighted, realistic, and effective? Use email reminders, try out shared calendars in GCal.
Psychological Foresight Tools Used in FD Course: StrengthsFinder (and other Psych Testing Rubrics)
Peter Drucker: Individuals should discover and focus on building their best strengths, much more than fixing their weaknesses, to make their best and happiest contribution to the world. Weaknesses in turn can be best managed by: 1. Being aware of strengths you dont have 2. Joining strengths-complementary teams 3. Allowing others to lead from their different strengths 4. Building situational intelligence (routines, tools, brief courses, etc.) to keep you from getting tripped up by your weaknesses. Gallups StrengthsFinder (and other psych profiling assessments like MBTI, DiSC, etc.) are predictive futures tools. How validated are they? (Gallup lists 34 strengths, large polling set) How complete are they (strengths and weaknesses, integral)? When will they be a required part of our educational, hiring (AMA: only 39% of U.S. companies use psych testing in hiring, mostly still minor, not yet open source), and assessment processes? We are still very early in this process. Major opportunity ahead.
Personal Foresight Process in FD Course: Eliciting Student Values and Goals

Values Inventory What do you care about beyond survival needs? What is it others do that angers/offends you? Goals (in a Categorization System) Personal and Academic/Professional Health, Family, Relationships, Professional HRVWE Health Relationships Vision (Hindsight/Insight/Foresight) Work Environment (Possessions, etc.) Harvard MBA Goals Study The 3% with written goals earned 10X the others per capita The 15% with verbal goals earned 3X the others per capita The 20% of startups with business plans were 3X more likely to be solvent at 5 years.
Personal Futures Wiki (Portfolio) Used in Course: Fourteen Pages, Fifty Questions on FD
GTD Pages
Tasks+Waiting Single-step "Next Actions" ("Tasks"), & "Waiting For Others" items Projects+Skills Multi-step, long-term items ("Projects") and Skills that make you unique. Ideas+Questions "Someday/Maybe" Ideas (personal, biz, etc.) and Questions to research.
Personal Pages
Diary Money Habits Fam+Friends Values+Psych Social+Fun A place to journal--and review--daily or memorable life experiences. Income, expenses, budget, investments, money goals and plans. Health, exercise, practice, entertainment, any repeating healthy habits. Your important relationships, things your fam&friends like, dont like, & plans. Your values, ideals, personality, and psychological traits. Social groups, travel, other fun things you now or might do for recreation.
Career Pages
Career Goals Education+Work Networking Mentors Cos+Internships Career plans and possibilities, current life goals and objectives. Degrees, classes, jobs, highlights, current ed/work schedule, future plans. Group memberships, conferences, networks that connect you to professnls. Leaders and helpers in your profession, and your contact history with them. Co. profiles, site visits, contacts, internship opportunities and schedules.
Some Big Question Options to Debate in Course: Societal (Economic, Political, and Cultural) Issues
Economics 1. Is the US destined to lose its economic and educational leadership to New Asia (China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, India, etc.)? What should we do? 2. What are ways the US can help manage global development in more equitable, innovative, and sustainable directions in coming years? 3. Have the corporations become too powerful in U.S. society? How can we keep powerful corporations from reducing global and local competition? From buying political influence? Politics 4. Will strategies of more participatory democracy (initiative politics, direct local democracy, grassroots activism, nonviolent resistance (boycotts, civil disobedience etc.) become more powerful in a Network 2.0 world? How might they change the U.S. political climate (positively and negatively)? 5. As military and security technologies get more autonomous (UAVs, etc.), more precise (smart weapons, and more networked and transparent, what changes can we expect in the U.S. military and homeland security environment (threatscape)? 6. If selfishness and evil (lying, violence, etc.) have been key parts of human nature up until now, how can we keep them in check in a world of accelerating economic growth (creating powerful new plutocrats) and accelerating tech (environmental degradation, terrorist WMDs)? Culture 7. Are any of our cultural indicators (citizen intelligence, independence, analytical ability, world knowledge, self-reliance, self-accountability, community) declining in the U.S.? Why? Is this a problem, or is this OK as long as our machines pick up the slack? Are they? 8. How can we, or do we want to, restore the American educational Social Contract of the mid-20th century, which tried to give all citizens an affordable and challenging education according to their ability rather than according to their wealth? 9. What has been the impact of Network 1.0 technology (TV, Web 1.0, etc.) and economy (early info/services economy) on U.S. culture so far? Where may it go in Network 2.0 (next 25 years of info and communication tech)? What are some of the opportunities and risks ahead?
Why Teach Foresight / Futures Studies?

Your intuitions, please!
Why Teach Foresight / Futures Studies?

Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present. Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal Futures
Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision

+ Prediction Markets, Delphi, and the Wisdom of Foresighted Crowds
Great Futures Books and Movies

Used in Foresight Development Course (and to Consider for Your Course)
Futures Movie Night Weeks 1-5 One Great Video Per Week on Foresight Development
Week 1 - Futures Studies

The Future We Will Create: Inside the World of TED, 2007 Future Living 2025, Discovery Channel, 2007 Pandora's Box (Six Episodes), Adam Curtis, 1992
Week 2 - Science
Origins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution, Episode 4: Where Are the Aliens?, NOVA, 2004 Evolution (8 Episode Series): Episode 2 - Great Transformations, PBS, 2001 Judgment Day: Intelligent Design on Trial, NOVA, 2007
Week 3 - Technology, Part I

Beyond Human, Episode 2: Living Machines, Thomas Lucas, PBS, 2001 2057: The Body, The City, The World (3 Episodes), Discovery Channel Future Cars: Episode 1 - Extreme Cars (4 Episodes), Discovery Channel, 2007 Future Weapons: Smart Weapons, (Season 1, Episode 4), Discovery Channel, 2006 Tokyo's Sky City and Transatlantic Tunnel, Extreme Engrg (S1, Ep 1), Discovery Channel, 2006
Week 4 - Technology, Part II

Computers - Modern Marvels, History Channel, 2005 Pirates of Silicon Valley, Martyn Burke, 1999 Amazing story of the birth of the personal computer, the first great chapter in the democratization of computing. The Internet/Web 1.0 was the second. What will be third? Web 2.0? Startup.com, Chris Hegedus, 2001 Tech startups can be abysmal in new industries, where foresight is lacking. These Web 1.0 guys burn through 60 million in 18 months, leaving nada to show for it. Incredibly instructive. Revolution OS, J.T.S. Moore, 2002 Video Game Invasion: The History of a Global Obsession, David Comtois, 2004
Week 5 - Global, Part I

World in the Balance: The Population Paradox and China Revs Up, NOVA, 2004 (2 Episodes) Planet in Peril: A CNN Worldwide Investigation (2 Episodes), CNN, 2007 Energy Crossroads, Chris Fauchere, 2007 Solar Energy: Saved by the Sun, NOVA, 2007
Week 6 - Global, Part II

Commanding Heights, Episode 1: The Battle of Ideas, Daniel Yergin, 2003 Commanding Heights, Episode 3: The New Rules of the Game, Daniel Yergin, 2003 Utopia, Paragon, 2005 The worst mass crimes of the 20th century were created by "top-down" utopian futurists with grand visions and power, and no sufficiently organized opposition, or pluralistic checks and balances. Lenin, Hitler, Mao are all chillingly portrayed in this compelling film. People's Century (Award-winning 26 episodes on the 20th Century) Great Leap: 1943-1976, PBS, 1999 Incredible story of the heartbreaking, dysfunctional impact of Mao Tse Tung, one of the most powerful utopian futurists of the 20th century, up to and during the Cultural Revolution in China. Confronting the Truth, The growth of truth commissions. They address the pain of the past, restore human rights and due process, create institutional memory, and ensure social horrors will not be repeated. Uganda Rising, Pete McCormack, 2006 Great story about Ugandan politics and the youth-soldiers in the Lords Resistance Army. Social engineering (amnesty & reconciliation) can address complex issues of civil violence.
Week 7 - Economics
Wal-Mart: The High Cost of Low Price, Robert Greenwald, 2005 Learn about the largest, wealthiest company in the world. Grossly unfair US government subsidies, substandard wages and health care, exploitation of Chinese workers, aggressively antiunion policies allowing substandard working conditions to persist. Strong social democracies like Germany hold Wal-Mart to a much higher standard. When will we? The Corporation (2 Disc Special Edition), Mark Achbar, 2004 Overly histrionic and sloppy, yet still a reasonably useful exploration of the excesses of the corporate entity in the 20th century, which have become less extreme in individual instance, yet more pervasive as corporate wealth has grown to exceed national wealth the world over. Briefly considers the unrealized possibilities for corporate charter revocation and reform. Sicko (Special Edition), Michael Moore, 2007 One of Moore's more balanced works, while still biased infotainment. Special features on the DVD include this 8 minute piece on Norway's health care and penal system. Moore highlights Norwegian outliers in the prison bit, without telling you, as is typical of his propagandism. Still, when will US citizens have the power to create a health care system that puts universal care ahead of profits? We shall see.
Week 8 - Politics + Security

Why We Fight, Eugene Jarecki, 2006 No End In Sight, Charles Ferguson, 2007 Our Brand is Crisis, Rachel Boynton, 2005 The Fog of War, Errol Morris, 2003 Well-Founded Fear: Gaining Political Asylum in America, Shari Robertson, 2001
Week 9 - Media, Education, Culture

Orwell Rolls in His Grave, Robert Kane Pappas, 2004 Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch's War on Journalism, Robert Greenwald, 2004 News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 3 - What's Happening to the News, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007 News War (4 Episode Series: Episode 4 - Stories from a Small Planet, Lowell Bergman, Frontline, 2007 Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, John Merrow, PBS, 2005 2 Million Minutes: A Documentary Calculating the Educational Divide, Chad Heeter, 2007 Revealing, hard-hitting documentary financed by multimillionaire venture capitalist Bob Compton. It demonstrates just how far behind the United States education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) has fallen, and just how comfortable we are with this situation. The modern global marketplace is highly competitive, and the leading innovations and companies of the future are going to come from countries that have strong STEM education and an innovative culture. Will we recognize how vulnerable we presently are, and reform our educational system and start immigrating the best and the brightest again, or will we continue to slide into narcissism and global irrelevancy? Each of us has the choice, for ourselves.
Week 10 - Biz-Org, Part I

Who Killed the Electric Car?, Chris Paine, 2006 We Built this City - Paris, Discovery Channel, 2005
Week 11 - Biz-Org, Part II

Merchants of Cool, Barak Goodman, Frontline, PBS, 2005 The Persuaders, Rachel Dretzin, Frontline, PBS, 2005 Architecture to Zucchini: People, Cos, and Orgs Pioneering Sustainability, 2006 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Week 12 - Personal-Career, Part I

A Whole New Mind, Daniel Pink, 2006 The Up Series, Michael Apted (Three 20 min pieces, 7 up, 21 up, and 42 up) Mr. Personality (Intvw w/ Forensic Psychologist Michael Stone) on The Thin Blue Line , Errol Morris, 2005
Week 13 - Personal-Career, Part II

Maxed Out, James Scurlock, 2005 Excellent expose of the massive addiction to debt at the consumer and national level. Legal reform makes it increasingly easy to hook unsuspecting, unforesighted consumers, starting in college, into paying 24-29% a month in interest to the big financial institutions, for years on end. Probably the most profitable legal scam in the US at present. As individuals we can break the vicious cycle, but it takes financial foresight to do so. Secret History of the Credit Card, Frontline, David Rummel, 2004
Week 14 - Personal-Career, Part III

Bringing Down a Dictator, Steve York, 2002 A Force More Powerful: Episode 2, Steve York, 2000 (2 episodes) Street Fight, Marshall Curry, 2005 Modern politics and racial stereotyping in the 2002 Newark, NJ Mayoral campaign. The corruption and dishonesty are incredible, the electorate is hoodwinked, yet there is still hope.
Week 15 - Personal-Career, Part IV

Legacy, Tod Lending, 2006 The Bridge, Eric Steel, 2006 The Business of Being Born, Abby Epstein, 2007 Shows the way Americans, as the world's most convenience-oriented culture, have allowed the business of medicine to turn childbirth into an experts-only affair and a major profit center. The low number of parents who use midwives (8% in US vs. 70% in Europe) illustrates our patriarchal, numbed-out approach. Is it any wonder that our parenting is also increasingly hands off as well? Fortunately we can rise above the limitations of our disempowering experts only culture and make childbirth, parenting, funeral arrangements, insurance, and other big life choices something we control ourselves. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto
Great Futures Books (Circulated in Class Each Week, Returned to Library Reference Section After Class)
Week 1 - Introduction to Futures Studies

Ten Books to Consider for Your Unit 1 Essays
The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, Paul Halpern, 2000. Great book on the success and failures of foresight and prediction science. Thinking About the Future: Guide for Strat Foresight, Hines & Bishop, 2007 Great practical text on how orgs can prepare for the future. 36 contributors. Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education, James Dator, Ed., 2002. History, courses, methods, concerns, and issues of teaching futures. 19 contributors. A Brief History of Tomorrow: The Future Past and Present, Jonathan Margolis, 2001 Insightful and witty novel-type read on the wild and crazy frontier of futuring. Contemporary Futurist Thought: Sci-Fi and Futures Studies, Thomas Lombardo, 2006 Good survey of the range and value of futures thinking by a futures studies professor. Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Futures Studies, Ziauddin Sardar, Ed., 1999 18 futurists stress the need for non-Western cultures and concerns in futures. Yesterdays Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future, Joseph J. Corn, 1984 Beautiful pics of U.S. future images, discussion of the benefits and limits of visioning. TechTVs Catalog of Tomorrow: Trends Shaping Your Future, Andrew Zolli, Ed., 2003 100 fun two-page essays on trends and tech, looking out 5-20 years. 44 contributors. MacMillan Atlas of the Future, Ian Pearson, Ed., 1998 Maps and graphics popularizing future trends and issues for humanity. 25 contributors. The Gaia Atlas of Future Worlds: Challenge and Opportunity, Norman Myers, 1990 Pretty atlas of trends, issues in global sustainability. Old enough do prediction-checking.
Week 2 Evolution, Development, and the Future of Science

Decoding the Universe: The New Science of Information, Charles Siefe, 2006 Information physics is relating brains to black holes, and predicting the multiverse. Astrobiology: A Beginners Guide, Lewis Dartnell, 2007 The new science of astrobiology: how special planets create life, on Earth and elsewhere. Biocosm: A New Scientific Theory of Evolution, James Gardner, 2003 Our universe has many features of a biological system & may have had an "intelligent" start. The Privileged Planet: Our Anthropic Place in the Cosmos, Gonzalez and Richards, 2004 Evidence that Earth is in a "special" place in the cosmos, optimized for scientific discovery. Endless Forms Most Beautiful: The New Science of Evo Devo, Scott Carroll, 2006 Great intro to biological evo devo: how evolution and development interact in organisms. Lifes Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe, Simon Conway-Morris, 2003 Great intro to universal evo devo: how evolution leads to "convergent evolution" in Universe. The Origins of Virtue: Human Instincts and the Evolution of Cooperation, Matt Ridley, 1998 Short overview of how societies build cooperation and morality through collaboration. The Next 50 Years: Science in the First Half of the 21st Century, John Brockman, Ed., 2002 25 essays on the future of the Cosmos, Math, Neurosci, Bio, Culture, Morality, and Prediction. The End of Science: Facing the Limits of the [Human-Only] Scientific Age, John Horgan, 1997 Controversial arguments that science is running into human limits. Will AI's do better? The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Carl Sagan, 1997 A call to scientific and "evidence-based" thinking to help solve humanity's problems.
Week 3 - Accelerating Change & the Future of Technology, Part I

Maps of Time: An Introduction to Big History, David Christian, 2004 Good overview of the "Big Picture" of accel. change, from a universal perspective. Society and Technological Change, 5th. Ed., Rudi Volti, 2005 Very good STS textbook on the impact of tech. change on society over centuries. The Change Function: Why Some Technol. Take Off & Others Crash, Pip Coburn, 2006 Why people don't try new things until the perceived benefits outweigh the pain of change. The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intell., Ray Kurzweil, 2000 Great insights on tech accel. Proposes human-intell. computers will arrive by mid-century. Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing, Adam Greenfield, 2006 How computers are becoming miniaturized, interconnected, and embedded everywhere. Nanotechnology: Science, Innovation, and Opportunity, Lynn Foster, Ed., 2005 Great intro to the many opportunities and challenges of nanotech for humans & the world. Hacking Matter: The Infinite Weirdness of Programmable Atoms, Wil McCarthy, 2004 A sometimes-crazy romp through the really powerful, really weird world of "Inner Space. Radical Evolution: The Promise and Peril of Human Enhancement, Joel Garreau, 2006 Discusses 3 key social paths for the future of GRIN (Genetics, Robotics, Info, Nano) tech. Intervention: The Real Risks of Genetic Engineering and Biotech, Denise Caruso, 2006 Good exploration of the risks of biotech, and the social values that limit its adoption. Enough: Staying Human in an Engineered Age, Bill McKibben, 2004 A call for preserving human values, identity, and culture in our highly technological age.
Week 4 - Accelerating Change & the Future of Technology, Part II

Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorg., Greg Stock, 1993 A very good book on human-machine symbiosis, written from a biological perspective. Visions of Technology: A Century of Debate about Machines, Richard Rhodes, 2000 Vignettes on the social impact of 20th century tech change, by an emininent historian. Technology Matters: Questions to Live With, David Nye, 2006 Key Qs about tech: Is it predictable? Does it control us? How does it change work? Culture? Technopoly: The Surrender of Culture to Technology, Neil Postman, 1993 Great exposition of the ways technology weakens society, and ideas on how to fight back. Technology and the Future, Albert Teich, 10th Ed, AAAS, 2005 Good range of mostly conservative views on tech futures and social responses. Synthetic Worlds: The Business and Culture of Online Games, Edward Castronova, 2006 Social and economic trends in VWs, games, and the coming Metaverse economy. Deception: Pakistan, the US and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, Levy and Scott-Clark, 2007 WMDs are a major problem. US policy short-sightedness has proliferated nuke tech globally. The Long Emergency: Surviving the Catastrophes of the 21st Century, James Kunstler, 2006 Doomsaying that peak oil and climate change can't be fixed fast enough to prevent collapse. The Bottomless Well: Why We Will Never Run out of Energy, Huber and Mills, 2006 Techno-optimist, utopian ideas that new tech and free markets solve all energy problems. The Two Faces of Tomorrow, James Hogan, Yukinobu Hoshino, 2006 Fictional account of one of the great questions of 21C tech: How do we trust the coming AI?
Week 5 Global Trends, Scenarios, and Models

Global Trends 2015: A Dialog About the Future, CIA, 2005 Excellent, concise, CIA-compiled database of important global trends and implications. Modernization, Cultural Change, & Democracy: Values & Devel., Ronald Inglehart, 2005 Summary of 40 years of research showing how development creates a common set of values. The Transparent Society: Technology, Privacy and Freedom, David Brin, 1999 Balanced treatment of the upsides and downsides of our accelerating global transparency. Which World?: Scenarios for the 21st Century, Allen Hammond, 1998 Three institutions look out to 2050 and paint three different scenarios for the global future. The Global Technology Revolution 2020: Executive Summary, RAND, 2006 Great overview of trends, challenges, and options in nano, bio and info technologies. Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Jeroen van der Veer, 2005 Energy, resources, economic, & political scenarios from Shell, a leading scenario developer. Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Barry Hughes, 2006 Modeling system for International Futures. Good in general, but not fully technology-aware. The State of the World 2007, Worldwatch Institute, 2007 Annual world status report from environment to human rights. Sustainability focused. The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the State of the World, Bjorn Lomborg, 2001 A critical look at claims that our global environment is falling apart. Evidence for optimism. Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, Robert Wright, 2001 Makes the case that non-zero sum (positive sum) interactions drive most social activity.
Week 6 Global Problems and Priorities

Mapping the Global Future: The National Intelligence Councils 2020 Project, NIC, 2005 Great illustrated summary of future global scenarios, from the National Intelligence Council. From Third World to First, The Singapore Story: 1965-2000, Lee Kuan Yew, 2000 How authoritarian capitalism enabled rapid economic development. A model for others? Environment: An Introductory Textbook, 5th Edition, Peter Raven, 2005 College text on our natural environment, a complex system we still don't understand well. Wilson's Ghost: Reducing Conflict and Catastrophe in 21C, McNamara & Blight, 2001 Brilliant book on the global context enabling the 9/11 attacks, and future US policy options. Human Development Report 2006: Beyond Scarcity, UNDP, 2006 Goals and progress in global development per the United Nations Development Program. How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place, Bjorn Lomborg, 2006 Priorities for global development from Lomborg's "Copenhagen Consensus. Worldchanging: A Users Guide for the 21st Century, Alex Steffen, 2006 Tools and strategies for achieving a "bright, green future." Sustainability and innovation. Shadow Cities: A Billion Squatters, A New Urban World, Robert Neuwirth, 2006 Issues and futures of the world's biggest slums, by a journalist who has lived in them. The End of Poverty, Economic Possibilities for Our Time, Jeffrey Sachs, 2006 Asks for new levels of political, corporate, & individual participation in global development. The White Mans Burden: Why Western Aid Has Done So Little Good, Bill Easterly, 2007 How we hurt the developing world in trying to aid them, and the difficulty of the problem.
Week 7 Economics and the Future of Capitalism

Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, & Econ of Prosperity, William Baumol, 2007 Explains the four major types of capitalism. Only one, entrepreneurial capitalism, is ideal. The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization, Thomas Friedman, 1999 Intro to accel. globalization and its new-world vs. old-world tensions. Written before 9/11. One Nation, Underprivileged, Mark Robert Rank, 2005 Huge social costs of undereducating and underemploying American poor and immigrants. China Shakes the World: The Challenge for America, James Kynge, 2006 Now and future impact of Chinese economic, political, & social power on world & the US. Three Billion New Capitalists: Great Shift of Wealth & Power East, Clyde Prestowitz, 2006 Issues of integrating a growing, Networked Asia (China,India,SE Asia) into global economy. Information Rules: A Guide to the Network Economy, Shapiro and Varian, 1998 Good overview of the economic, info, and social changes in the Network Society. Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution, Hawken and Lovins, 2000 Eloquent call for a future of sustainable economics and green business: natural capitalism. Banker to the Poor: Micro-Lending and World Poverty, Muhammad Yunus, 2003 By the Nobel-winning founder of Grameen Bank, pioneers of microcredit for the poor. The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: End Poverty Thru Profits, C.K. Prahalad, 2006 Opportunities in Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) capitalism, microcredit to microconsumption. The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, Joel Bakan, 2005 Considers weaknesses of the modern corporate structure and possibilities for reform.
Week 8 Politics and the Future of Security and Democracy

Lies My Teacher Told Me: What Your History Textbook Got Wrong, James Loewen, 2007 Brilliant critique of the "feel good myths" we learn in history class, and ideas for change. The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad, Fareed Zakaria, 2007 Explores the limits and weaknesses of democracy and the ways it can become illiberal. The American Anomaly: U.S. in Comparative Perspective, Raymond Smith, 2007 Argues the U.S. is no longer the most participatory and competitive political economy. America (The Book) Teachers Ed: A Guide to Democracy Inaction, Jon Stewart, 2006 Hilarious intro to American history and political democracy, warts and all. Comedy Central. Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich, Kevin Phillips, 2003 Why the rich are not conservatives (low govt) but plutocrats (use govt to their advantage). The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, Samuel Huntington, 1998 Sees the world as a set of eight cultures increasingly conflicting over religion and dogma. The Lucifer Principle: An Expedition into the Forces of History, Howard Bloom, 1997 Argues that evil (lying, violence, etc.) plays an essential role in biological adaptation. A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict, Ackerman and Duvall, 2001 Chronicles the rising power of nonviolent mass resistance to remove or reform governments. The Pentagons New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century, Thomas Barnett, 2005 Combating disconnectedness (tech, econ, & cultural) as a key U.S. global security strategy. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Philip Tetlock, 2005 Great study of the repeating patterns, biases, and limits of political (and other) prediction.
Week 9 Culture, Media, and Education in a Network Society

The First Measured Century: Trends in America, 1900-2000, Theodore Caplow et. al., 2000 One hundred years of social and economic trends, with graphics and engaging commentary. The Rise of the Image, the Fall of the Word, Mitchell Stephens, 1998 Charts the rise of moving images and decline of the printed word, and some implications. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, Robert Putnam, 2001 Great stats on the 50-year deterioration of U.S. social life, with some ideas for solutions. The Future of Media: Resistance and Reform in the 21st Century, Robert McChesney, 2005 Great articles on massive media centralization and corporatization, and proposals for reform. The Future of Ideas: The Nature of The Commons in a Connected World, Larry Lessig, 2002 How large corporations are stifling public innovation & privatizing our online info commons. The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel, 1998 The politics of change, and conflicts over creativity, enterprise, and progress. Cuture Jam: Reversing Americas Suicidal Consumer Binge, Calle Lasn, 2000. The power & addictions of brands, conformity, & overconsumption in a global corporate age. Declining By Degrees: Higher Education at Risk, Richard Hersh et. al., 2006 On the retreat from challenging and affordable higher ed as a 20th century "social contract." Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge, Cass Sunstein, 2006 How free and open online info, aggregation, and markets are accelerating global knowledge. The Fourth Turning: Cycles of History and Americas Destiny, Strauss and Howe, 1997 Historical generational (cycle) theory that the US is "on the verge of crisis." We shall see.
Week 10 Biz-Org Leadership, Innov., Learning, and Predicting

Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap... and Others Don't, Jim Collins, 2001 Careful research featuring 11 big companies that manage to greatly improve, year after year. Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition, Everett Rogers, 2003 Classic on innovation diffusion, how new ideas and tech spread into a culture, or don't. The Innovators Dilemma, Clay Christensen, 2003 How companies manage "disruptive innovation," new tech that greatly changes the market. The Art of the Start: A Guide for Anyone Starting Anything, Guy Kawasaki, 2004 Great advice on planning, raising money, hiring, and starting any business project. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many are Smarter than the Few, James Surowiecki, 2005 How groups can beat their best individuals for cognition, coordination, and cooperation. The Fifth Discipline: The Art of the Learning Organization, Peter Senge, 2006 How to build continual learning, "the only sustainable competitive advantage," into any org. The Difference: How Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, & Societies, Scott Page, 2007 Why cognitive and experience diversity on your team beats groups of like-minded experts. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees van der Heijden, 2005 How to use the futures tool of scenario planning (possible futures) to improve biz strategy. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein, 1998 Quant. probability has led to econometrics, insurance, forecasting, and better foresight. Supercrunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted, Ian Ayres, 2007 The recent creation of huge data sets lets analysts make previously impossible predictions.
Week 11 Biz-Org Plans, Consensus-Bldg, Benefiting, & Metrics

Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present, Bob Johansen, 2007 Practical ways for orgs to develop a "future sense" and improve their plans and strategy. Out of Control: Machines, Social Systems, and the Economic World, Kevin Kelly, 1995 How our connected and complex world can be understood as a biological, evolving system. Inevitable Surprises: A Survival Guide for the 21st Century, Peter Schwartz, 2004 A leading futurist considers both the expected and unpredictable future. Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, Don Tapscott, 2006 The economic and social benefits of global online collaboration for people and companies. Hard Facts, Half-Truths, & Total Nonsense: Evidence-Based Mgmt, Pfeffer & Sutton, 2006 How to analyze business management practices using surveys, science, and evidence. Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change, Bob Seidensticker, 2006 Argues well against the idea that technology change is particularly fast or important today. Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Tech Change, Steven Schnaars, 1989 Collection of bad forecasts by think tanks, researchers, and politicians, w/ recommendations. Inviting Disaster: Lessons from the Edge of Technology, James Chiles, 2002 50 famous catastrophes, and ways that they could have been prevented with better systems. Future Search: Finding Common Ground in Orgs & Communities, Marvin Weisbord, 2000 A future search conference helps organizational stakeholders work to chart a better future. Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things, William McDonough, 2002 Using industrial design to improve sustainability and "eco-effectiveness" in our world.
Week 12 Personal and Career Creativity and Visioning

Natural Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Intelligence, Andy Clark, 2004 Why you are already a "cyborg" and will get even more intimately connected to all your tech. The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader, John Maxwell, 2007 Qualities and habits that make you the kind of person whose ideas others want to follow. Hare Brain, Tortoise Mind: Intelligence Increases When You Think Less, Guy Claxton, 2000 Logic and reason aren't enough. We need slow, intuitive, nonlinear thinking just as much. Authentic Happiness: Positive Psychology and Your Potential, Martin Seligman, 2002 From the founder of science of positive psychology. How to thrive, love, and be happy. Finding Flow: Psych. of Engagement with Everyday Life, Mihalyi Csikszentmihalyi, 1998 Tips on creating flow: a psychological state of ease, focus, happiness, and productivity. Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudosci. and Superstitions, Michael Shermer, 2002 Shows the value of skepticism and evidence-based thinking to counter superstition. When Prophecy Never Fails: Myth and Reality in a UFO Group, Diane Tumminia, 2005 Exposes = how wishful thinking causes us to deny reality. We all do this, to some extent. No Logo: No Space, No Choice, No Jobs, Naomi Klein, 2002 Brands now dominate public life, narrow our choices and our thinking. Tips on resisting. 50 Facts That Should Change the World, Jessica Williams, 2004 Some fascinating stats, many addressable by technology. Which ones will we deal with? Fifty-Two Simple Ways to Make a Difference, Paul Simon, 2004 Small things are really the big things, in the end. Some powerful ways to be a better person.
Week 13 Personal and Career Learning and Predicting

Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, K. Anders Ericsson, 2006 "Natural" talent is quite overrated. Experts are mostly made, not born. Anyone can be one. The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey, 2004 Each habit takes years to master, but becoming an expert in them is a key to personal power. Our Inner Ape: A Leading Primatologist Explains Who We Are, Frans De Waal, 2006 Human nature is a blend of chimpanzee and bonobo, of competition and cooperation. Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships, Daniel Goleman, 2007 How the choice, care, and feeding of our relationships determines our intelligence. The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil, Philip Zimbardo, 2007 How situations, environments, can change our ethics. Why our environment matters. The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out as They Do, Judith Rich Harris, 1998 Shows the huge effect of our peer groups on our success in life. Choose your friends wisely! Hold on to Your Kids: Why Parents Need to Matter More than Peers, Neufeld and Mate, 2006 Compulsive peer attachment hurts individuality, creativity, intelligence. How to fix that. Building a Bridge to the 18th Century: How the Past Helps the Future, Neil Postman, 2000 Bringing Enlightenment values (intellect, history, logic, rhetoric) back into the 21st century. The Pathfinder: How to Choose or Change Your Career, Nicholas Lore, 1998 By goalsetting, list making, & other techniques, find your ideal career and make it happen. Do What You Are: Discover Your Career thru Personality Type, Paul &Barbara Tieger, 2001 Using personality profiling to find industries, careers, and occs that match your strengths.
Week 14 Personal and Career Planning and Negotiating

Everything's an Argument - With Readings, Andrea Lunsford et. al., 2006 An excellent and visual introduction to argument and rhetoric, foundational skills for all of us. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, Richard Neustadt, 1986 How to best use historical knowledge to improve decision making. A classic. How We Know What Isnt So: The Fallibility of Reason in Life, Thomas Gilovich, 1993 The limits of logic and psychology in understanding our complex, contingent world. Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, John Hammond, 2002 Systematic approaches to making better-considered choices. Lots of great case examples. The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less, Barry Schwartz, 2005 Explains how overanalysis and abundance can rob us of flexibility and satisfaction. How Full is Your Bucket: Positive Strategies for Work and Life, Rath and Clifton, 2007 Explores the foundation of social intelligence: creating positive social interactions. Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Roger Fisher, 1991 Very readable text on achieving win-win negotiations in workplace and home. Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, Douglas Stone, 2000 When we put off the most important conversations, everyone suffers. How to fix that. What You Can Change & What You Cant: A Guide to Self Improvmt, Martin Seligman, 2007 Common psychological disorders and how to self-treat them. Practical personal psychology. Never Eat Alone: Success, One Relationship at a Time, Keith Ferrazzi, 2005 The importance of defining who you are, trusting others, and networking for a clear objective.
Week 15 Personal and Career Benefiting and Measuring

One Small Step Can Change Your Life: The Kaizen Way, Robert Maurer, 2004 Face fears that block change by making small, measurable steps in the right direction. The Resilience Factor: 7 Keys to Inner Strength, Karen Reivich, 2003 A key empowering habit of mind. How to keep perspective, not overeact, and bounce back. The Survivor Personality: How to Get Better at Handling Adversity, Al Siebert, 1996 Why some crumble under pressure while others get stronger, and how do the latter. The Power of Full Engagement: A Personal Energy Mgmt System, Tony Schwartz, 2004 Energy management complements time, space, money, knowledge, and process mgmt. Fooled by Randomness: The Role of Chance in Life and Markets, Nassim Taleb, 2005 Humans are pattern recognizers. We see patterns where none exists. How to reduce that. The Seven Stages of Money Maturity, George Kinder, 2000 Stages of psych development in relation to money. Which of these are you presently "in"? The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, Benjamin Graham, 2003 The classic in value investing. A book for foresighted people with long-term plans. Socially Responsible Investing: Making a Difference & Making Money, Amy Domini, 2000 How to put your money where your values are. Investing as a way to improve the world. Journal to the Self: Twenty-Two Paths to Personal Growth, Kathleen Adams, 1990 Well-regarded book on journaling as a tool for self-understanding and personal mastery. CrazyBusy: Strategies For Handling Your Fast-Paced Life, Edward Hallowell, 2006 How to manage culturally induced ADD, 24/7 accessibility, and modern expectations.
Some Sample Slides

From FD Class Presentations and Discussions
NISCB: Five Substrates for Complexity Development (Arranged Fastest First)

Nanotech (nanoscale science and technology) Infotech (computing, comm., and engrg. technology) Sociotech (org. and social technology) Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors) Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care)
It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies. Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion. First and second mover advantages.
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech

"Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world." Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world. (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder)
Buckminster Fuller: MEST Compression as Ephemeralization (Our Weightless Economy)

In Nine Chains to the Moon, 1938, poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization, positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage." (e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work) Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (single electrons, photons, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity. In Critical Path, 1981, Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance
This trend has also been called virtualization, weightlessness, and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density.
MEST Efficiency Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change

Technological (dominant since 1920-50)

Its all about the technology (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed)
Economic (dominant 1800-1950s, secondary now)

Its all about the money (who has it, control they gain with it)
Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800s, tertiary now)

Its all about the power (who has it, control they gain with it)
1. These levels have reorganized to fastest first. 2. We see more pluralism (a network property) as we rise in level. Examples: 50,000 Internatl NGOs, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. 3. Where is Society here? On all three levels. Can we move moer human aspirations and culture to the top of this list? Can we create a global network of tech shapers, early adopters, and critics?
MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves

Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery

80% recharge in 60 seconds Two orders of magnitude jump in capacity. 99% duty after 1,000 cycles Reliable at temp extremes Cost competitive
What Might This Enable?

New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (90% of an electric vehicle economy)
The futures already here. Its just not evenly distributed yet. William Gibson
Farming and Cities are Killing the Oceans

Massive fertilizer use and city effluent runoff adds massive nutrients to ocean, causing an explosion of primitive organisms. This rise of slime is killing off the larger species.
See: Altered Oceans Series, LA Times, 2006 http://tinyurl.com/hql49
Altered Oceans: A Little-Known Global Trend

90% of global stocks of tuna, cod, and other big fish have disappeared in the last 50 years. 97% of elkhorn and staghorn coral off Florida has disappeared since 1975. 150 oxygen depleted dead zones exist on global coastlines next to cities today. 10 existed in 1950. 75% of Southern Californias kelp forests have disappeared in the last 50 years. 650 Grey Whales have washed up sick or dead on the West Coast of N. America in the last seven years.
Altered Oceans (5 part series), Los Angeles Times, 2006.
More Dead Zones, More Acidic Conditions

Known dead zones in 2005: 150
Particularly Strong Sign of a Global Problem (Since 1988): Less Fish (total tonnage), Even Less Fish (per capita)
Not enough fish in the sea, Kenneth Weiss, LA Times, 26 Nov 2006
Angus Maddisons Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982

Information/Services/Network Society
Society of Intangible Needs (Weightless Economy) Network 1.0 McJobs & Service 65% of Jobs, 2000s Network 2.0 New Middle Class 40% of Jobs, 2030s Network 3.0 Consolidation Again 15% of Jobs, 2060s
Products/Manufacturing Society
Society of Tangible Needs (Property Economy)
Manufacturing 1.0 Exploitive Jobs 50% of Jobs, 1900s Manufacturing 2.0 New Middle Class 35% of Jobs, 1950s Manufacturing 3.0 Offshoring/Globalizing 14% of Jobs, 2000s
Resources/Agricultural Society
Society of Basic Needs (Food/Shelter Economy) Agriculture 1.0 Subsistence Jobs 80% of Jobs, 1820s Agriculture 2.0 Family Farms 50% of Jobs, 1920s Agriculture 3.0 Corporate Farms 2% of Jobs, 1990s
See also Pentti Malaskas Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03
What Capitalist Phases May Come Next? The Financial Economy

The
Financial Economy (Money Supply,
Finance, Stocks, Investments) 47 trillion annual gross world product 55 trillion money supply (M3), growing at 2X or more GDP, an informal tax on economy. U.S. Govt (state, local, federal, military, contractors) employs 13% of U.S. society from formal and informal taxes. 10 trillion ann. goods and services trading 100 trillion ann. stocks and bonds trading 980 trillion annual currency trading volume Some equitocracy goals Government Reform & Accountability Balanced Government Budgets Solvent Social Insurance Corporate Reform & Accountability Progressive Corporate Taxation Progressive Income & Asset Taxation Consumer Trust Accounts
Data360.org; Global Money Supply, Mike Hewitt, 31 Jul 2007; Wikipedia (GWP)
Long-Term: Automation and the Voluntary Future

Lifetime hours trends:
1880
1995
2040
Total Available (after eating, 225,900 sleeping, etc.)

Worked to earn a living Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work 182,100 43,800
298,500 321,900
122,400 75,900 176,100 246,000
Prediction: We will see a continued strong increase in voluntary activities in all first world economies. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc. Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist and founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)
Innovation, Patents, and Policy in Large vs. Small Companies

Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no incentive to implement unless: a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence) Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower CAF 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.
Car cos form innovation-blocking partnerships to promote premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs. effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).
Toyota will develop but wont deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers, or some other factor. Big leaders strategy: innovate and wait Some Solutions: Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry Mandate tough and increasing performance standards Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies. Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs Promote corporate transparency Promote public stock ownership
Toyotas 1/X Concept Car (2007) 1/3 the weight 2X the fuel efficiency of the Prius
Tipping Point for Car Ownership: Why Green Cars Matter

Global auto sales by all carmakers: 65 million in 2005 Toyotas Official Sales Estimate: 73 million cars in 2010 Presently slow growth.
Tata Motors planned $2,000 peoples car
Wildcard: If ultra-low cost ($1,000-$2,000) cars and microfinancing are brought to market soon in emerging nations, the global car market might begin to grow as fast as 50% year. For many years in a row.
Wildcard Projection assuming 50% annual sales growth starting in 2010, from 73 million, for just five years: 553 million cars sold in 2015 Total Potential Cars Sold, 2010-2015 (or 2010-2020?): 1,514 million cars
Global Car Saturation could occur in a period as short as ten years, locking us into the energy efficiency, pollution, and safety standards of those particular automobiles for the next 20 years (avg. car lifetime). Conclusion: These need to be clean and efficient cars, or we may suffer a real global energy and pollution crisis. Are governments involved in slowing the rollout of todays machines, and/or setting minimum standards? The record is not encouraging.
IP Regulation and the Tech Innovation Rate: Examples from Bose and Microvision
Innovation diffusion can be prevented due to overly restrictive IP (intellectual property) policy, often due to the philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation (Amar Bose, etc.). IP law reform can change this, but only with foresight and political will!
Ingleharts Developmental Values Map: All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Paths
Examples: Secularism (human-derived

values)
Ecumenicalism (seeing
wisdom in all faiths)
Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness
It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less. worldvaluessurvey.org
Average US literacy scores are projected to decline between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.
In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had Level 2 Literacy By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category
A Flatter Curve Means More Inequality
Less Proficient Americas Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007
More Proficient
Prediction/Idea/Decision Markets and the Wisdom of Crowds

Aggregation of opinions is the new frontier for prediction/ innovation/ decisionmaking. Google realized there was hidden opinion order in an apparently chaotic net. PageRank captured that order, created much more relevant search. Avoids bias. Michael Jensen, HBS, Forecasting is paying people to lie.
Sample Internal Markets: Eli Lilly. Drug efficacy and market size. Siemens. Software project length. Google. Over 200 markets (experimental) Microsoft. Software development. Hewlett-Packard. Sales projections. Three Requirements: 1. Cognitive Diversity (The Difference) 2. Independence 3. Aggregation Tools (still primitive)
Real Money Markets:

Play Money/Reputation Markets:
Cognitive Diversity in Small Groups

Diversity and Optimality (1998). Lu Hong, Scott E. Page, Dept. of Econ, Syracuse U, and Dept. of Econ., U. of Iowa, 27 p. A general [computational] model of diverse problem solvers of limited abilities. We use this model to derive two main results: (1) a collection of diverse, bounded problem solvers can locate optimal solutions to difficult problems and (2) a collection of problem solvers of diverse abilities tends to jointly outperform a collection of high ability problem solvers, where a problem solver's ability equals her expected individual performance.
Diversity is as important as ability for: Poorly defined problems (nonlinear optimization, prediction, horiz. scanning) High degrees of freedom problems Innovation What else?
See also: Symbiotic Intelligence Project Norman Johnson, LANL http://ishi.lanl.gov/
Experts versus Groups, By Problem Type

Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The Left and Right Hands of Universal Change
Experimentation Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors
Natural Selection Main Actor: Organism Life Cycle, Growth Curves, Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors
Convergent Unification
Adaptation
Radiation
Main Actor: Environment MEST Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, Evolutionary Convergence, Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
Left Hand of Change
New Computational Phase Space Opening
Development
Evo Devo
(Intersection)
Right Hand of Change

Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization
Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures
Some Key Conjectures: Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation. Development is intelligence/information preservation. Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty. Development causes cyclic predictability and stability. Evolution drives most unique local patterns. Development drives most predictable global patterns. Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive. The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both. Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims. Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.
Evolution vs. Development: Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe

Consider two genetically identical twins:
Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local processes and small things are unpredictably unique in each twin. Yet many processes and large things are predictably the same. The Lesson: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes. Both are fundamental to universal complexity.
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)
Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)
Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.
Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues Democrats are Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues
Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age

AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry $1B in 93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon. Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm
Robo sapiens is on the Horizon

Huey and Louey
AIST and Kawadas HRP-2 (Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down)
Aibo Soccer
IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025

Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well.
Date 1998 2005 2012 2019
Avg. Query 1.3 words 2.6 words 5.2 words 10.4 words
Platform Altavista Google GoogleHelp GoogleBrain
Average spoken human-to-human query length is 11 words.

Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (Digital Twin) in 2020?

Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.
Working with Phil in Apples Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2002
Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age

A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology:

A
time when computers speak our language. A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. A time when we will begin to feel naked without our computer clothes.
Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification

Conversational interfaces lead to personality models. In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. (Brian Arthur, SFI)

Your Digital You (Digital Twin)

I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be 50% her. When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be 80% him. Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.
We wouldnt have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org

Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future

Microcosm (Gilder), 1960s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030s - Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media
A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.


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Selling and Teaching Foresight Development

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