The Importance of Testing Mediation and Moderation

Jon A. Krosnick

Departments of Communication, Political Science, and Psychology

Stanford University

Outline for Today

Introduction: Defining and Testing Mediation and Moderation
Example: News Media Priming

Example: Public Learning About Policy Issues

Introduction

The Audience Participation Portion of Todays Show

What is a moderator? - Definition - Example of moderation

What is a mediator?

- Definition - Example of mediation

Moderator
A variable that changes the impact of one variable on another.

Predictor Moderator

Outcome

Testing a Moderator Hypothesis

Dont Presume Linearity

Mediator
The mechanism by which one variable affects another variable

Testing Mediation
Step 1: IV Step 2: IV Step 3: Mediator DV Mediator DV

Step 4: Effect of IV on DV is significantly reduced by controlling for the mediator:

Sobel (1982) test (http://www.unc.edu/~preacher/sobel/sobel.htm) Goodman (1960) test
On the exact variance of products. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 55, 708-713.

First Example:
News Media Priming

News Media Priming

News media attention to an issue increases the impact of performance assessments in the domain on overall presidential evaluations.
Media Attention to Unemployment

Presidential Performance Handling Unemployment

Overall Presidential Performance

Mediation of Moderation
Media Attention to Unemployment

Accessibility of Unemployment Performance Assessment Unemployment Presidential Performance

Overall Presidential Performance

Unemployment Attitudes

Unemployment Unemployment Story

Study Design
- Pre-exposure questionnaire

- 5 non-political TV news stories 2 stories on either: Crime Pollution Unemployment

- Post-exposure questionnaire

Measures
Overall presidential performance Presidential performance handling:
Crime Pollution Unemployment

Accessibility (response latency) Political knowledge Trust in the news media

Not Mere Accessibility Persuasion? Moderation of Mediation of Moderation!

Media Attention to Unemployment Belief that Media Personnel Believe the Issue is Important for the Nation
Political Knowledge

Trust in the Media

Belief that the Issue is Important for the Nation Unemployment Overall Presidential Presidential Performance Performance

Conclusion
Understanding moderation and mediation increase confidence in the causality claim Understanding mediation changed the political character of the effect (not victims of the architecture of the mind) Understanding moderation changed the normative spin of the effect (not nave people who lack political expertise people choose to be influenced)

Example Two:
How Do People Learn About Politics?

October 13, 1988 Presidential Debate George H. W. Bush vs. Michael Dukakis Day Before: 134 people interviewed

Day After: 63 reinterviewed - Cued Recall - Recognition Memory - Attitude Importance

Analysis: Hierarchical Linear Modeling

Participant
Taxes Capital Punishment RM CR RM Defense Spending CR RM

CR

Effect of Importance on Knowledge

b=.46
SE=.23 p<.05 N=366

The Usual Approach

Stop There. Smile. Fold Up Tent. Go Home.

.44 .11*

.04

.31**

Laboratory Experiment Conditions

Unpaced

Candidate A
A woman should have the right to obtain an abortion if she so chooses. The death penalty is an acceptable punishment for convicted murderers. We should build more nuclear power plants to provide an alternative source of energy. The U.S. should send more troops to Saudi Arabia to oppose Iraqs invasion of Kuwait. In order to protect American jobs, we need more restrictions on the number of goods imported.

Laboratory Experiment Conditions

Unpaced

Paced

You will have 20 seconds to read five statements made by each candidate. After 20 seconds, the statements will disappear, so read as quickly as you can.

Laboratory Experiment Conditions

Unpaced

Paced
Elaboration Time

You will have 20 seconds to read five statements made by each candidate. After 20 seconds, the statements will disappear, so read as quickly as you can. Once the statements disappear, you will have 45 seconds to think about what you read.

Laboratory Experiment Conditions

Unpaced

Paced
Elaboration Time

Topic Labels

Candidate A
Abortion

A woman should have the right to obtain an abortion if she so chooses.

Death Penalty

The death penalty is an acceptable punishment for convicted murderers.

Nuclear Power

We should build more nuclear power plants to provide an alternative source of energy.
Iraq

The U.S. should send more troops to Saudi Arabia to oppose Iraqs invasion of Kuwait.
Imports

In order to protect American jobs, we need more restrictions on the number of goods imported.

Measures
Free Recall
Recognition Memory Attitude Importance

Alternative Hypothesis

Actual Knowledge

Perceived Knowledge Attitude Importance

Volume

Volume

.37* .27*

.55**
.38*

.04

.00

Conclusions
You can test mediation with panel data You can test mediation via moderation manipulations in the lab You can test mediation with cross-sectional data with instrumental variables and 2SLS

Broader Conclusion
Test mediation (and moderation)! Two examples where this was not done:
Valentino, N. A., Hutchings, V. L., & White, I. K. (2002). Cues that matter: How political ads prime racial attitudes during campaigns. American Political Science Review,96, 75-90. Tali Mendelberg The Race Card: Campaign Strategy, Implicit Messages, and the Norm of Equality (Princeton Univ Press, 2001).