Attitudes, beliefs & behaviour

Week 4 31 January 2003

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Predicting behaviour
Measurement of
Attitudes Beliefs Intentions

Objectives:
Predicting sales Influencing consumers
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Attitudes
the strength of the consumers' belief with regard to the company image or brand
positive negative neutral.

3 components
cognition (knowledge) affectivity (emotions and feelings) conation intention (behaviour).
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Measuring attitudes
E.g. semantic differential scale question
I find that eating at the Blue Room is:
Bad Good

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Attitudes and beliefs

An attitude (to actions) can be seen as a set of beliefs
Beliefs: mental and verbal ideas and assessments we have and we make about the world we inhabit; they will be of varying strengths
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Attitudes and beliefs

The walk to the Blue Room is nice The food at the blue room is warm The price is reasonably low

Eating at the Blue Room is good

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Measuring beliefs, evaluations and outcomes

Contracting salmonella from eggs is:
Unlikely -2 -1 0 1 2 Likely

(b)

I think that the consequences of salmonella are:

Mild
-2
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Strong
-1 0 1 2

(e)
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Outcomes
Outcome = (b) * (e) E.g.
Salmonella is likely but mild: -4 Salmonella is unlikely and mild: 4

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The properties of attitudes

Valence (positive, negative, neutral) Extremity (intensity) Resistance (immunity to change) Persistence (erosion through time) Confidence I like a lot eating at McDonalds, because it is fashionable
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Multiattribute analysis and the Expected-value model

A bi ei
i 1 n

Utility measurement?

A: bi: ei: n:

attitude towards the product strength (likelihood) of the belief that the product has attribute i evaluation of the attribute i number of salient attributes
10

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Does it work?
Fishbein interviewed 50 subjects and asked them attributes evaluation and a final overall (global) assessment The correlation between the A score and the global assessment was 0.8

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Salient beliefs
Salience: importance assigned to an attribute Problem: salient attributes differ across consumers, can we submit a single questionnaire to many consumer?

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Eliciting salient beliefs

Define the action and target group Elicit salient beliefs, asking Is there anything else? Consider negative actions (beliefs for not acting) Who should (not) do the action? What are the control factors? Combine similar beliefs Refine the list of beliefs
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Exercise
Answer to the following questions with a value between 2 (least) to 2 (most), with 0 as the indifference/zero value (b1) Do you think there are vitamins in orange marmalade?
-2 -1 0 1 2

b1*e1

(e1) What do you think is the effect of the vitamins in orange marmalade?
-2 -1 0 1 2

(b2) What colour do you prefer in orange marmalade?

-2 -1 0 1 2

b2*e2

(e2) How important is the colour for you?

-2 -1 0 1 2

(b3) What is the orange cut you prefer in orange marmalade?

-2 -1 0 1 2

(e3) How important is the cut for you?

-2 -1 0 1 2

b3*e3
A

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Salience
Now subtract the score related to the product attribute which is least relevant for you in choice What is your new score?

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The Ideal-Point model

A Wi I i X i
i 1 n

A: Wi: Ii: Xi:

n:

attitude towards the product weight (importance) of attribute i ideal performance on attribute i belief about actual performance on attribute i number of salient attributes
16

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Attitude and behaviour

Behaviourism (reinforcement paradigm)
Thought and feelings are effects not causes of behaviour Attitude data allow to predict behaviour, not to explain it

Cognitivism (cognitive paradigm)

Attitudes and knowledge control behaviour Experience changes attitudes and knowledge Communication may modify behaviour
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Changing attitudes through advertising

1. Change beliefs
Correct misperception (e.g. price) Comparative advertising Reduce the importance of poor attributes Increase the importance of good ones. Change the target ideal good
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2. Change attribute importance

3. Change ideal point

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Frequently purchased goods

Usage precede intention to buy Intentions depend on past usage Consumers tend to associate positive attributes with a brand if they are currently using it

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Experience, information & attitudes

It is more likely that attitudes change after trial (direct experience) rather than because of advertising (indirect experience) Direct experience provides a stronger link between attitude and behaviour Attitudes learned by experience are more accessible (strong) Speed of response Confidence in the evaluative judgment Attitude stability Repetition strengths attitudes
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Predicting behaviour
Attitudes could also be unrelated or just slightly related to actual behaviours Other variables may interact
Personal (in)ability Social constraints Uncertainties about outcomes

Discrepancies when measures are taken at different times (information changes)

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Measuring attitudes
Three components model
Stimuli Attitudes

Observable independent variables Inferred variables

Feelings
Emotional response, statements of feelings
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Cognition
Claimed beliefs

Behaviour
Actions, report of actions

Observable dependent variables

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Problems with the 3 components model

The attitude concept includes evidence of actual behaviour Inferring attitudes from behaviour might be wrong
Attitude towards the product Attitude towards purchasing the product (higher correlation with behaviour)
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The compatibility principle

Attitudes to the purchase of the product must be measured if purchase is the object of prediction Compatibility between measures of attitude and behaviour

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Examples of the compatibility rule

Attitudes towards (adapted from East):
Pizza Target Mozzarella & tomato pizza Action Buying takeaway M&T pizza Buying takeaway M&T pizza from Pizza Hut Buying takeaway M&T pizza from Pizza Context Hut tonight Timing You buying takeaway M&T pizza from Pizza Hut tonight Personal aspect
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Purchase intentions and market research

Predicting new product sales
First purchase can be correctly predicted through likelihood of purchase Further purchases depend on the experience associated with first purchase

Distinguishing between user and nonusers Works better for frequent purchases
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Theories for predicting purchasing behaviour

Fishbein (1963), Ajzen and Fishbein (1980), Ajzen (1985, 1988,1991)
Expected value theory of attitude
Compatibility Other variables

Theory of reasoned action

Subjective norm

Theory of planned behaviour

Perceived behavioural control
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Theory of Reasoned Action

Economic rationality
Perfect knowledge Selfishness Optimality

Reasoned action
Limited knowledge of outcomes
Accessible outcomes kept into account

Normative influence of other people Limited power to actually act like intended

Intentions rather than actions are predicted

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Theory of reasoned action

Outcome beliefs Attitude to behaviour (AB) W1 Referent beliefs Subjective norm (SN) W2 Structural equation modelling

Intention
Behaviour
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Sufficiency
All change in attitude and behaviour derive from new beliefs or modified beliefs External factors act only indirectly (through attitudes and subjective norms) on behaviour Problem: past experience usually has a direct effect on behaviour
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Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB)

Inclusion of other variables
Moral norm
Own personal values

Perceived behavioural control

Self-perceived ability of taking the desired action (confidence)

Prediction of behaviour rather than intention

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Examples
Attitudes towards GM foods (Cook et al.) Gene technology in tomato production (Saba and Vassallo) Organic food consumption (Shepherd and Raats)

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Measurement
Seven-point semantic differential scale
My eating of tomatoes produced by gene technology in the future will be . . Extremely harmful Extremely beneficial

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Measurement
Outcome beliefs (expected-value model) Referent beliefs (similar to the ev model)
Normative belief (My friends think that) Motivation to comply (likelihood to comply)

Control beliefs
Controlling factor (e.g. having the money) Access to the control factor (probability to have it)

Global variables
AB: (two or more scales) For me SN: Most people who are important to me think PBC: For me doing this is: (semantic scale) difficult easy

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Sum variables
Outcome beliefs
Attitude to behaviour (AB) W1

Referent beliefs
Subjective norm (SN) W2

Control beliefs
Perceived behavioural control (PC) W3

Global variables

Intention
Behaviour

PC is a good predictor of intention, its inclusion significantly improves the model SN is the weakest predictor
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Explanation: Behaviour (level 1)

Intention Perceived behavioural control (weaker)

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Explanation: Intention (level 2)

Relative weight of AB, SN and PC Changes according to product / situation

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Explanation: Specific factors (level 3)

Specific outcome Referent factors Control factors
E.g. Complaining about a product Is it most related to AB, SN or PC?

Global variables Intention

Identifying a limited number of factors can help marketing strategies

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Limits
Difficult to select salient belief Low correlation between sum and global variables

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