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Nikita Vedak
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Part III
Risk
What is risk?
Types of risks: Liquidity, Interest Rate, Market, Credit, Operational risks GAP Model Duration Gap Model (DGAP) VAR
Basic Concepts
NII, NIS, NIM, HTM, HFT, AFS, Banking Book, Trading Book, Off B/S Exposures, NDTL, CRR, SLR, PSL, CRAR, Bucketing
ALM:
organizations liquidity to ensure that the right amount of cash resources are available in the right place in the right currency and at the right time in such a way as to maximize the return on surplus funds, minimize the financing costs of the business, and control interest rate risk and currency exposure to an acceptable level.
In other words, Treasury Management deals with ways and means of deploying surplus funds and raising funds to meet any shortage.
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Conventional Treasury
Integrated Treasury
Forex Role
Reserve Management and Investment Liquidity and Funds Management Asset Liability Management and Term Money Transfer Pricing Arbitrage Derivative products Risk Management
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Basic Concepts
= Interest Income Interest Expenses
E.g. Bank A NII = Interest Earned Interest Expanded 1786 = 7516 5730
Basic Concepts
= Net Interest Income (NII) Interest Earning Assets X100
E.g. A bank has Net Interest Income (NII) of Rs. 5 on outstanding average loans of Rs. 100. The bank's net interest margin is 5/100 = 5%
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Held-to-Maturity
Held-for-trading Available-for-sale
Basic Concepts
Trading Book Assets & Liabilities are normally held until maturity Accrual system of accounting is applied Banking Book Assets & Liabilities are normally held until maturity Accrual system of accounting is applied Off Balance Sheet Exposure These are contingent in nature such as letter of credit Exposed to liquidity risk, interest rate risk and market risk.
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For measuring and managing liquidity risks, the banks determine the future cash inflows and cash outflows for various time periods (maturity profiles). Each time period is known as a time bucket. Bucketing is the process of determining the net funds requirement for each time bucket
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Next Day (Day 1) 2 to 7 days 8 to 14 days 15 to 28 days 29 days and up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 6 months Over 6 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 3 years Over 3 years and up to 5 years Over 5 years
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Liabilities of the banks may be towards banking system or towards others in the form of Demand and Time deposits or borrowings or other miscellaneous items of liabilities. Demand Liabilities
liabilities which are payable on demand (E.g. current deposits, balances in overdue fixed deposits, etc.)
Time Liabilities
which are payable otherwise than on demand (E.g. fixed deposits, cash certificates, etc.)
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Penalties:
Penal interest to be charged from the fortnight beginning June 24, 2006 in case of:
Default in maintenance of CRR on daily basis Default in maintenance of CRR on fortnight basis
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Cash Gold valued at a price not exceeding the current market price, Unencumbered Approved Securities valued at a price as specified by the RBI from time to time.
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Penalties
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Presently, the broad categories of priority sector for all SCBs are as under:
Agriculture (Direct and Indirect finance) Small Enterprises (Direct and Indirect Finance) Retail Trade Micro Credit Education loans Housing loans
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State Financial Corporations (SFCs) / State Industrial Development Corporations (SIDCs) Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) The National Small Industries Corporation Ltd. (NSIC) Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) NABARD National Housing Bank (NHB) Housing & Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO) 23
A bank should have sufficient capital to provide a stable resource to absorb any losses arising from the risks in its business. Capital Adequacy Ratio CAR= Tier 1 + Tier 2 Risk Weighted Assets Banks are required to maintain a minimum CAR of 9 % and NBFC CAR of 15%
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Example: National Bank of A does some transactions (loans, foreign exchange, etc.) in USD, but banks in A will only handle payments in INR. So NB of A opens a USD account at foreign bank, and instructs all counter-parties to settle transactions in USD at "account no. 123456 in name of NBA, at Bank B". NBA maintains its own records of that account, for reconciliation; this is its nostro account. Bank Bs record of the same account is the vostro account.
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SWIFT
Extensive use of the latest developments in telecommunications for transmitting as well settling forex transaction
Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication Co-operative society owned by About 250 banks in Europe and North America Communication network for International financial market transactions linking effectively more than 25,000 Financial institution throughout the world who have been allotted bank identifier codes Enables to transact : - International Payments - statements - other messages connected with International Banking
Treasury Products
TREASURY PRODUCTS
Government Securities
Spot
T- Bills
Bonds
Forward
Term Money
Debentures
Swaps
Repo
Commercial Bill
Money Market
A mechanism whereby on one hand borrowers manage to obtain short term loanable funds and on the other hand, lenders succeed in getting credit worthy borrowers for their money.
Call Money Treasury Bills Certificates of Deposit Commercial Paper Repo & Reverse Repo Commercial Bills Term Money
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Call Money
Transactions are carried out for one day Temporary cash surpluses of banks are made available to cash deficit banks. Maturity of call loans varies between 1 to 14 days.
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Call Money
Call Rates
-Calculated on daily basis -Rates vary from day to day
Purpose
-Cover up for short-term mismatches -To meet the CRR requirements -To discount commercial bills.
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Call Money
Limits
For borrowing :
Fortnightly basis : Cannot exceed 100 per cent of their capital funds. Daily basis : Cannot exceed 125 per cent.
For lending :
Fortnightly basis : to 25 per cent of their capital funds Daily basis : 50 per cent.
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Call Money
Participants
Scheduled commercial Banks (private sector, public sector and cooperative banks) Discount and Finance House of India (DFHI) Securities Trading Corporation of India Limited (STCI) Primary Dealers Financial Institutions Mutual Funds
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Treasury Bills
Issued in the form of promissory notes by the government to meet its deficits Issued at discount and redeemed at par It has distinct features like zero default risk, assured yield, highly liquid and easy availability Types: 91-day,182-day and 364-day Amount: Minimum amount of Rs.25,000 and in multiples of Rs. 25,000
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Treasury Bills
Issued in 2 different forms:
Physical form Dematerialized form
Investors:
Primary Dealers Financial Institutions (for primary cash management) Provident Funds (PFs) Insurance Companies Non-banking Finance Companies (NBFCs) Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) State Governments NRIs are allowed to invest only on non-repatriable basis
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Yield Calculation
Discounted Yield (Y) = (100-P) * 365 * 100 P*D
E.g. A cooperative bank wishes to buy 91 Days Treasury bill maturing on Dec. 6, 2002 on Oct. 12, 2002. The rate quoted by seller is Rs. 99.1489 per Rs. 100 face values The YTM can be calculated as following:
The days to maturity = 55 (October 20 days, November 30 days and December 5 days)
Certificate of Deposit
Promissory notes issued at a discount to the face value Issued by scheduled commercial banks Maturity period: 14 days to 1 year Amount: Minimum amount of Rs.5 lakh and in multiples of Rs.5 lakhs.
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Certificate of Deposit
InvestorsIndividuals Corporates Companies Associations Trusts NRIs
FeaturesHighly liquid and less risky It is issued at a discount to the face value.
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Discount Calculation:
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Commercial Paper
Promissory note with fixed maturity, issued at a discount to face value. CPs are issued by corporates. Actively traded in the secondary market Maturity:15 days to1 year. Amount: Denomination of Rs. 5 lakh and multiples of 5 lakh and a minimum investment is Rs. 5 lakh per investor.
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Commercial Paper
Features:
Involve much less paper work. Have high liquidity.
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Commercial Paper
Investors:
Individuals, Banking companies, Other corporate bodies Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) etc Private sector Co., Public sector unit, Non-banking Co., Primary dealers
Issuers:
Commercial Paper
Discount Calculation:
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Debt/Securities Market
Debt Markets are markets for the issuance, trading and settlement in fixed income securities of various types and features
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Government Securities
Issued by the Reserve Bank of India on behalf of Government of India Purpose: Finance its Fiscal deficit Eligibility: All entities registered in India like banks, financial institutions, Primary Dealers, firms, companies, corporate bodies, partnership firms, institutions, mutual funds, Foreign Institutional Investors, State Governments, Provident Funds, trusts are eligible
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Government Securities
Nomenclature:
E.g. 12.25% GOI 2012
Availability:
Available in primary as well as secondary markets
Repayment:
SGL account holders Gilt Account Holders Entities having a demat account
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Types
Dated Securities Zero Coupon bonds
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G-Sec
Eg: A client purchases 7.40% GOI 2012 for face value of Rs. 10 lacs.@ Rs.101.80, i.e. the client pays Rs.101.80 for every unit of government security having a face value of Rs. 100/- The settlement is due on October 3, 2002. What is the amount to be paid by the client? The security is 7.40% GOI 2012 for which the interest payment dates are 3rd May, and 3rd November every year.
Forex Market
It is the most liquid market Currencies, which are not fully convertible, have limited demand Information dissemination is very fast through electronic media such as Reuters, money line and Bloomberg.
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Spot Contracts
Mostly bought and sold in spot trades Settlement happens on a T+2 basis Settlement can happen on the same day (TOD) or the next day (TOM).
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Forward Contracts
Refers to purchase or sale of currency on a future date. The exchange rate of settlement is called as forward rate. Forward rate is the spot rate adjusted for the premium / discount Forward Rate = Spot Rate + / - premium or discount
Forwards
The contracts are illiquid. If a party to a forward contract wants to reverse its position, the options are:
Re-negotiate with the counter party / parties to the contract and seek their consent. If they do not agree, the contract cannot be reversed. Enter into another forward contract for the opposite position with any party. In this case, the earlier contract and the new contract would be independent contracts that would need to be settled independently.
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Swaps
A Swap is in its simplest form an exchange of a series of cash flows between 2 parties. Swap is a Combination of spot and forward transaction.
Swap route is generally used for funding requirements, but there is also a profit opportunity from interest rate arbitrage.
E.g. If one has dollar funds, but needs rupee funds to invest in a commercial paper for 3 months, he may enter into a USD/INR swap deal to sell USD at spot rate (converting into rupee funds) and buying back the USD 3 months forward (with rupee funds on the maturity of the CP). If the interest earned on CP is higher than the cost of USD funds, the swap results in a profit.
Risk :It is the chance that an investment's actual return will be different than expected. This includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment
Risk management:It is a systematic process of identifying, analyzing and responding to project risk
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Types of Risk
Liquidity Risk
Operational Risks
Credit Risks
Market Risks
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Funding Risk- It arises due to inability to raise funds at normal cost. eg: Unanticipated Withdrawal of Deposits Time Risk- It arises due to the need to compensate for non-receipt of expected inflows of funds eg: performing assets turning into nonperforming assets Call Risk- It arises when bank is unable to undertake profitable business opportunities
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In a floating rate scenario, banks may price their assets and liabilities based on different benchmarks. Any non parallel movement in curve would affect the NII
Eg:- Suppose liability raised at a rate linked to say 91 days T bill is used to fund an asset linked to 364 days T bill. Due to non parallel shift in yield curve would affect in net interest income
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For e.g.- Asset interest rate may rise in different magnitude than the interest rate on corresponding liability creating a variation in NII.
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Generally associated in the context of bonds It is evident during periods of falling interest rates
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Effect on Bank
Change In Net Interest Income Change In Value of assets and Liabilities
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3] Market Risk
Risk of adverse deviations of the mark to market value of the trading portfolio, due to market movements
Risk of losses due to movements in financial markets variables such as Interest rates, Foreign exchange rates, security prices, etc.
Market risk is also referred as Price Risk
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Three types:
Counterparty Risk : Arises due to Counterpartys refusal or inability to perform Country Risk: Arises due to constrains or restrictions imposed by a country Credit Spread Risk: Arises due to nonrecovery of regular installment repayment
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5] Operational Risk
It is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. It can be summarized as human risk i.e. a risk of business operations failing due to human error.
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5] Operational Risk
(a) Transactional Risk: Risk arising from
fraud, both internal and external, failed business processes and the inability to maintain business continuity and manage information
Measurement of Risk
Interest rate risk: Gap Model Duration Gap Model Market Risk: VaR
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GAP Model
GAP = RSA(inflows) RSL (outflows) Example
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Gap Model
In case the negative gap exceeds the prudential limit of 20% of outflows, banks have to disclose how they plan to finance the gap. The gap can be financed from market borrowings, Bills Rediscounting, Refinance from RBI/others, Repos and deployment of foreign currency resources after conversion into rupees etc.
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Calculation of GAP
Description Rate Sensitive Assets 5000 Yield 8% Liabilities 6000 Int. Cost 4%
3500 1500
11%
2200 1000
6%
9200
Equity
800
Total
10000
10000
GAP
= RSA RSL
Here the GAP is negative i.e RSLs are more than RSAs.
Given : Earning Assets : 50 million Expected NIM : 5% Allowable change in NIM : 20% Expected change in interest rate : 4% This means that as bank is willing to pay 20 percent variation in NIM sets the limit on GAP which would be allowed to vary from Rs. -12.5 million to Rs 12.5 million.
Disadvantages Of GAP
Ignores the time value of assets & liabilities Doesnt consider the embedded options
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Duration
Duration is a function of Term To Maturity Earning Capacity Current interest It is always shorter than Maturity Its a Weighted Average Its Additive
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Calculation Of Duration
The duration of a 3 year loan with 12% as a rate of simple interest & market value of Rs.700 is calculated as follows.
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Calculation Of Duration
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Calculation Of Duration
Duration = Total cumulative returns/ Market Value of loan = 1883.04/700 = 2.69 years
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Calculation of DGAP
Par Years 1000 % Coup Mat. Assets Cash Earning assets 3-yr Commercial loan 6-yr Treasury bond Total Earning Assets Non-cash earning assets Total assets Liabilities Interest bearing liabs. 1-yr Time deposit 3-yr Certificate of deposit Tot. Int Bearing Liabs. Tot. non-int. bearing Total liabilities Total equity Total liabs & equity 620 300 920 0 920 80 1000 5.00% 7.00% 1 3 1.00 2.81 100 700 12.00% 200 8.00% 900 0 1000 3 6 2.69 4.99 Dur.
2.88
1.59
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Calculation of DGAP
DA = (700 * 2.69 + 200 * 4.99)/1000 = 2.88 yrs DL = (620 * 1.00 + 300 * 2.81)/920 = 1.59 yrs DGAP = DA - [(TL/TA)* DL] DGAP = 2.88 - (920/1000) * 1.59 = 1.42 years
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The given period could be one day or few days or few weeks or a year. VaR will change if the holding period of the position changes.
Total VaR is arrived at by adding the products of VaR and Gap amount for respective months.
Example
Data: Holding period:1 day Asset value: Rs.100000 Confidence levels:95% = 1.645 Annual Volatility = 6% Vd = 6/ 252 = 0.377 % VAR= 100000 * 0.377%* 1.645 = Rs.620
Introduction
Asset liability management is the practice of managing risks that arise due to mismatches between the assets and liabilities (debts and assets) of the bank. It is a dynamic process of Planning, Organizing & Controlling of Assets & Liabilities- their volumes, mixes, maturities, yields and costs in order to maintain liquidity and NII.
Significance Of ALM
Basic significance banks should have enough assets to pay off its liabilities. Thus ALM is required to match the assets and liabilities and minimise liquidity and market risk. In a way you ensure that for every liability, there is an equivalent tenure and amount matching asset
Reasons for growing significance of ALM : Volatility Rapid Innovations Regulatory Environment
Management Recognition
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Price Matching
Table I Table I (Rearranged)
Liabilities
Amt (%) Rate
Assets
Amt (%) Rate
Liabilities
Amt (%) Rate
Assets
Amt (%) Rate Spread (%) 0 12 7 10
15 25 30 30
0 5 12 13
10 20 50 20
0 12 15 18
10 5 15 10
0 0 5 5
10 5 15 10
0 12 12 15
30
10 20 100 8.75* 100 13.5* 100
12
13 13 8.75*
30
10 20 100
15
15 18 13.5*
3
2 5 4.75*
Maturity Matching
Table II Liabilities Maturing within (mnths) Assets Maturing within (mnths) Table II (Rearranged) Liabilities Assets Gap Cumulative Gap
10 5 8 4 45 20 8 100
1 3 6 12 24 36 >36
15 10 5 10 30 10 20 100
<1 3 6 12 24 36 >36
10 5 8 4 45 20 8 100
15 10 5 10 30 10 20 100
2)
ALM Organization
The Board should decide the risk management policy of the bank and set limits for liquidity, interest rate, foreign exchange and equity price risks. ALCO consisting of the bank's senior management including CEO should be responsible for ensuring adherence to the limits set by the Board as well as for deciding the business strategy of the bank in line with the bank's budget and decided risk management objectives. The ALM desk should be responsible for analysing, monitoring and reporting the risk profiles to the ALCO. The staff should also prepare forecasts (simulations) showing the effects of various possible changes in market conditions related to the balance sheet and recommend the action needed to adhere to bank's internal limits.
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ALM Process
Risk parameters Risk identification Risk measurement Risk management Risk policies
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Failure to identify the risks associated with business and failure to take timely measures in giving a sense of direction threatens the very existence of the institution.
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Functions Of ALCO
Balance sheet planning from risk return perspective Desired maturity profile & mix of incremental assets & liability Articulating, reviewing the funding policy & interest rate view of the bank Approving the pricing of various deposits & advances products. Monitoring the implementation of the policies Reviewing the results
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