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VAR is the maximum loss over a target horizon within a confidence interval (or, under normal market conditions)

In other words, if none of the extreme events (i.e., low-probability events) occurs, what is my maximum loss over a given time period?

A forecast of a given percentile, usually in the lower tail, of the distribution of returns on a portfolio over some period; similar in principle to an estimate of the expected return on a portfolio, which is a forecast of the 50th percentile. Ex: 95% one-tail normal distribution is 1.645 sigma (Pr(x<=X)=0.05, X=-1.645) while 99% normal distribution is 2.326 sigma

VAR: Example

Consider a $100 million portfolio of medium-term bonds. Suppose my confidence interval is 95% (i.e., 95% of possible market events is defined as normal.) Then, what is the maximum monthly loss under normal markets over any month? To answer this question, lets look at the monthly medium-term bond returns from 1953 to 1995: Lowest: -6.5% vs. Highest: 12%

At the 95% confidence interval, the lowest monthly return is -1.7%. (I.e., there is a 5% chance that the monthly medium bond return is lower than -1.7%) That is, there are 26 months out of the 516 for which the monthly returns were lower than -1.7%. VAR = 100 million X 1.7% = $1.7 million (95% of the time, the portfolios loss will be no more than $1.7 million!)

Issues to Ponder

What horizon is appropriate? A day, a month, or a year? the holding period should correspond to the longest period needed for an orderly portfolio liquidation. What confidence level to consider? * Are you risk averse? The more risk averse => (1) the higher confidence level necessary & (2) the lower VAR desired.

If Assuming normal distribution and since returns are uncorrelated day-to-day: VAR(T days) = VAR(1 day) x SQRT(T) And 95% one-tail VaR corresponds to 1.645 of sigma while 99% VaR corresponds to 2.326 sigma: VAR(95%) = VAR(99%) x 1.645 / 2.326

VaR Computation

Parametric: Delta-Normal

Portfolio return is normally distributed as it is the linear combination of risky assets, therefore need:

1. predicted variances and correlations of each asset (going back 5 years), no need for returns data. 2. Position on each asset (risk factor).

VaR Computation-continued

Historical simulation

going back in time, e.g. over the last 5 years, and applying current weights to a time-series of historical asset returns. This return does not represent an actual portfolio but rather reconstructs the history of a hypothetical portfolio using the current position (1) for each risk factor, a time-series of actual movements, and (2) positions on risk factors.

VaR Computation-continued

Monte Carlo Simulation

two steps: Specifies a stochastic process for financial variables as well as process parameters; the choice of distributions and parameters such as risk and correlations can be derived from historical data. Fictitious price paths are simulated for all variables of interest. At each horizon considered, one day to many months ahead, the portfolio is marked-to-market using full valuation. Each of these ``pseudo'' realizations is then used to compile a distribution of returns, from which a VAR figure can be measured.

Required: for each risk factor, specification of a stochastic process (i.e., distribution and parameters), valuation models for all assets in the portfolio, and positions on various securities.

Value-at-Risk is directly linked to the concept of duration in situations where a portfolio is exposed to one risk factor only, the interest rate. Duration, average maturity of all bond payments, measures the sensitivity of the bond price to changes in yield: Bond Return = - Duration x 1/(1+y) x Yield Change So as duration increases, the interest rate risk is higher.

The example before: at the 95% level over one month, the portfolio VAR was found to be $1.7 million. The typical duration for a 5-year note is 4.5 years. Assume now that the current yield y is 5%. From historical data, we find that the worst increase in yields over a month at the 95% is 0.40%. The worst loss, or VAR, is then given by Worst Dollar Loss = Duration x 1/(1+y) x Portfolio Value x Worst Yield Increase VAR = 4.5 Years x (1/1.05) x $100m x 0.4% =1.7mil

VaR in practice

J.P.Morgan Riskmetrics

allows users to compute a portfolio VAR using the Delta-Normal method based on a 95% confidence level over a daily or monthly horizon

provides VAR estimates at the 99% level of confidence over an annual horizon, using the Monte Carlo method.

Weaknesses

VaR does not measure "event" (e.g., market crash) risk. That is why portfolio stress tests are recommended to supplement VaR. VaR does not readily capture liquidity differences among instruments. That is why limits on both tenors and option greeks are still useful. VaR doesn't readily capture model risks, which is why model reserves are also necessary.

Question

What are the methods to calculate VaR?

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