CC 6290 China and Southeast Asia:

Politics, Economics and Regional Order

PRESENTATION

China is seeking to expand its regional role and

influence in line with its historical attitude towards
its frontiers, China’s goals might be ‘defensive’ in
order to create a buffer against external influence,
including United States ?

China is deliberately creating a sphere of influence

in its backyard in which it will be the dominant
power ?

Discuss the peaceful rise or peaceful

development of China in light of the two
statements.
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
 ORIGINS

A New Path for China’s Peaceful

Rise and the Future of Asia
Zheng Bijian (Vice President of
the Central Party School of CPP)

Premier Wen Jiabao

President Hu Jintao 2003 Visit United States

2003 Visit France

Regular meetings of Political

Bureau
OBJECTIVES

Counter China Threat theories

Emphasize China’s peaceful way in
emerging as a world power

IS IS NOT
Opportunities Threats
Status Quo Change
Prosperity and progression Instability or regression
 CHANGE OF WORDING
DEVELOPMENT replaces RISE
‘rise’ evokes apprehension among China’s neighbors
and strategic competitors
A sign of China’s sensitivity towards its international
audience

IDEOLOGY
Confucian pluralistic world view : Harmony in diversity (he’er
butong)
China as a rising power will not seek to challenge the US
hegemonic position, despite it will continue to practice its own
style of socialism
keep on peaceful development road thro diplomacy and
internal policy
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
CHINA
HISTORICAL
ATTITUDE
 HISTORICAL
ATTITUDE
Tributary States / Vassal states / Sinocentrism

 In pre-modern times
 Viewing China as the only civilization in the world
 Foreign nations or ethnic groups as "barbarians“
 Tribute for China : Symbolic Recognition and reinforcement

"The Emperor of the land where the sun rises sends a letter
to the Emperor of the land where the sun sets to ask if you
are healthy?“
( 日出處天子致書日沒處天子無恙云云 ) Year 581 – 618, Sui
Dynasty
 Hu Jintao

Sorry, no more apology

China’s Economic Growth 1981-
2005
China’s Economic Growth 2006

World Economic Forecast 2005 -

2008
PROJECTED TOTAL GDP OF US, JAPAN & CHINA
2005 – 2050
Measured in Nominal Dollars

Assumed Average Growth Followed the trend 1980 - 2005

GDP per person
PROJECTED GDP per HEAD OF CHINA as % of US’s
2005 – 2050
Measured in Nominal Dollars

Assumed GDP and Population Followed the trend 1980 - 2005

A LITTLE SUMMARY

Regional Power: YES

Weakness: Still 10 years behind modernization
Pragmatic way to go
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
 Good Neighborliness policy:
ASEAN
Friendliness and companionship to
neighbors
Calming, enriching and befriending

“The 10-Nation ASEAN will help the Association to play a

bigger role in the international and regional affairs.
Meanwhile, we believe the enlargement of the ASEAN will
benefit the long-term peace and stability of Asia, which is in
accordance the trend of global multi-polarization.”
Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Wang Yi , 1999
 Trade & Finance
Trade between China & ASEAN (US $)

1997 25.4 billion

2003 78.3 billion
2005 130.4
billion
“After work began on the Sino-ASEAN free trade zone on July 20 last
year, leading to tariff reductions for approximately 7,000 categories
of goods, China and ASEAN have entered a new stage in terms of
economic cooperation and trade ties.”
Yi Xiaozhun, Vice minister of Commerce of PRC
Trade & Finance

US$1 billion in financial

assistance to Thailand
US$4-6 billion for the IMF
programme to support SEA

ACFTA / CAFTA 2010

Politics and Security

Lots of Documents and Paperssssss

• Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in South China

Sea
• Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia
• Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership: Political
security, economic, cultural, regional and
international cooperation
• Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity
• Protocol to the Treaty on Southeast Asia Nuclear
Weapon Free Zone (Coming Soon)
 A Little Summary

ASEAN : vital diplomatic space for China

China will make strong efforts to maintain good
relations with ASEAN, a showcase to the world (Zheng)
Calculative strategy
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
Security and Stability : Central and
Northeast Asia
Shanghai Cooperation
Organization
Member countries:
 China
 Kazakhstan
 Kyrgyzstan
 Russia
 Tajikistan
 Uzbekistan

Observer Countries:
 India
 Iran
 Mongolia
 Pakistan
Six Party Talk : North Korea
Six Party Talk : North Korea

The two things China fears the most are a North

Korean collapse and another war on the Korean
peninsula – BBC
The best situation for China is a relatively obeying
North Korean regime which would continue to
survive
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
 Histories

“China's development is peaceful, open, cooperative and harmonious

in nature.
We aim to build a harmonious society at home, and work with other
countries to build a harmonious world of enduring peace and common
prosperity

…more than 100 years in China's modern history, the Chinese people
were subjected to colonial aggression and oppression by foreign
powers and went through similar suffering and agony that the
majority of African countries endure. “

Chinese President Hu Jintao

At University of Pretoria on February Africa’s visit
 Casino Royale Kung Fu II
Director: Stanley Ho Director: Stephen Chow
China’s oil consumption
 China’s Attitude

China has used its veto at the UN Security Council

to block moves to impose sanctions on Sudan unless
it stops the fighting in Darfur.

Mr Hu had urged the Sudan Government "to work

more earnestly to get the rebels who did not sign
the Darfur peace agreement to join the process". He
said that Mr Hu stressed to Mr Bashir: "You have to
resolve this problem.

“respect the sovereignty of Sudan," while writing off

debts and providing an interest-free loan to build a
new presidential palace.
 International Responses

There have been some mixed signals,

obviously," said U.S. State Department
spokesman Sean McCormack in Washington

"There is a big role for China," said a British

Foreign Office official. "It has huge influence in
Sudan. It has been helpful so far but we have
urged it, through prime ministerial and other
high level contacts, to do more.
We want it to press Sudan not to carry out
further bombing in Darfur and to play its part
in renewing the political process and helping
the expansion of the peacekeeping force."
 African Reaction

Among Africans, the concerns about rising

Chinese clout are more often economic.
Textile mills from Nigeria to South Africa have
closed amid a flood of inexpensive Chinese
imports.
Chinese purchases of mining concessions have
stirred nationalist backlashes.
 BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEAN
CENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
 International and Internal
Environment
Terrorism
Nuclear Proliferation
Oil & Gas Fields between China and Japan
HIstoriesssss of Sino-Japanese war
China Threat
New Colonialism
Taiwan’s independence
High Unemployment Rate
Wide Income Gap
Corruption
…
 Skepticism

‘Potential power over other nations, however

benevolent its purpose leads inevitably to
imperialism. ‘

Robert Taft, U.S. Senator 1939–1953

Deployment of "soft power" - aid, trade and the

promotion of a political model which puts development
before democracy.
Jing Huang, of the Brookings Institution in Washington,
says this is the most potent threat from China to the
West: "What it really challenges is a value system. Who
we are and what we want to be."
Rise implies that others must decline, at least in a relative sense
while development suggests that China’s advance can bring
others along
 Peaceful Development

Concept

Both directs to internal and external

environment

Nature

No longer military or occupation

Different from 15th to 18th centuries’
superpower
Impossible and not feasible for China to be
assertive
Economic diplomacy

Future Outlook

More on negotiations, cooperation, economic

measures
PEACEFUL RICE
Made in New Peking Restaurant, using Japanese post WWII recipe

Distributions:
China and neighboring countries including Japan, North & South Korea,
Taiwan, ASEAN
REFERENCES
Yongnian ZHENG, Sow Keat TOK (2005) China’s Peaceful Rise:
Concept and Practice, China Policy Institute , University of
Nottingham
Ong Keng Yong, Securing a Win-Win Partnership for ASEAN and
China
Cai Bingku, China’s Peaceful Development and relations with
its East Asian Neighbors
Thank You Very Much
~~