Climate change refers to any significant change in

measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer).

Climate change may result from:

natural factors, such as changes in the sun's intensity or

slow changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun; ocean circulation);

natural processes within the climate system (e.g. changes in

human activities that change the atmosphere's composition

(e.g. through burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g. deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.)

D histOry behind it

 1827- Fourier hypothesizes greenhouse effect

1860- Tyndal identifies CO2 n water vapor as heat trapping gases 1896-Aranhius calculates earth warming from gases n predicts future warming from doubling n

quadrupling CO2

 1930-Calandar shows correlation of temperature n CO2 1958- Keeling begins direct measurement of CO2 in atmosphere 1980 to 2004 evidence accumulates

Climate Change

Natural Process

Anthropogenic

Extraterrestrial

Atmosphere composition

increased green house effect

earths surface reflectivity

Within the earth

Earths surface

Natural Processes
Cause variations in the earths climate over hundreds

of thousands of years Some are affected by human activity : greenhouse effect Inter-related and involve in complex feedback mechanism : either enhance or dampen the climate changes.

Extra-terrestrial factors
The suns activity variation: The sun can vary in its intensity or total irradiance, which would result in direct heating or cooling of the earth. Changes in the intensity of ultraviolet radiation may alter ozone production in the stratosphere, leading to atmospheric heating.

Earths orbit changes: Intersection of 3 natural variations in the shape of the earths orbit, axial tilt, and precession or axial wobble change the amount of solar radiation heating the earth. These variations are called Milankovitch cycles.

Within the earth

Volcanism Produce changes in the earth's radiative balance on timescales of years to decades. Strong volcanic eruptions can send particulates and sulphate aerosols high into the atmosphere : the aerosols remain for 2-3 years. Large transitory increase in aerosol concentrationssignificant influence on the earth's climate in the short term.

Continental and mountain drift As a respond to the drag of molten rock circulating in the deep parts of the earth's crust below. Process of plate tectonics. Considered constant since its very slow process.

Earths surface
Reflectivity Bright surfaces reflect more heat and light than darker ones. Thus, absorb less heat. Varies mainly through changes in cloudiness, snow and ice cover, vegetation cover and land use.

Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange Continuous process Oceans can hold much more heat than the atmosphere. To buffer temperature changes in the atmosphere, while ocean circulation redistributes heat around the globe and influences regional climates. Ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphereimportant greenhouse gas sink & causing ocean acidification.

Atmospheric composition
Green house gases are largely transparent to the

incoming solar radiation But strongly absorb the infrared radiation emitted from the ground. Prevents the movement of some of this infrared energy into space - warms the earth, and is the natural green house effect.

Anthropogenic (Man-made)
Increasing evidence that man activities directly

influenced climate change Increasing green house gases leads to altered atmospheric composition. Changing the earths surface reflectivity

Enhance green house effect

Combustion of fossil fuels releasing green house gases.
Clearing of forest releasing carbon dioxide through

increased biomass decay. Deforestation, soil tillage, and land degradation releasing carbon from land system.

Green house Effect

Greenhouse Gases
The main greenhouse gases emitted or generated by human activities are: CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2). METHANE (CH4). HALOCARBONS (including CFCs) NITROUS OXIDE (N2O). OZONE (O3).

 All green house gases concentrations have all grown

steeply in the last century relative to earlier levels It is accompanied by increased radiative forcing increase the warming of the earths surface.

 Trends in the main

greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere in the last 1000 years

 Positive forcings lead

to warming of climate and negative forcings lead to a cooling.

Changes the earths surface reflectivity

Fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes, and

biomass burning release aerosols and other pollutants into the atmosphere, changing its capacity to reflect or absorb solar radiation. Deforestation, agricultural practices and urbanization

Land use change

May reduce or promote the ability of soil and

vegetation to absorb, store and release carbon and carbon dioxide. Soil tillage and deforestation - reduce the land's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. Deforestation also reduces the ability of soils to retain moisture and may make it harder for rainwater to infiltrate & exacerbating erosion. The decay of plant biomass (in land clearing) contributes to CO2 and methane emissions.

Anthropogenic changes in land cover

From 1990-2010, what would you expect in term of anthropogenic earths surface changes?

CLIMATE CHANGE
DIRECT

Short term Long term

INDIRECT

Short term Long term

Direct impacts
The direct health effects would include changes

in

mortality and morbidity from heatwaves

and thermal stress. Since extremes of heat and cold affect elderly and sick people in particular, the average impact on life expectancy may not be large.

Direct impacts
Other direct effects would include: altered concentrations of aeroallergens (such as spores and moulds) affects respiratory health Thinning of the ozone layer by the photochemical reactions that are sensitive to temperature Storms, floods and other different health consequences of an altered tempo of extreme weather events

Direct impacts

Indirect impacts
Usually resulted from disruption

of the complex ecological system

Greater consequence and more concerning about health E.g.: Changes in activity of vector borne disease Changes in person-to-person infection transmission Changes in nutritional and health consequences in agricultural productivity Various consequences of rising sea levels Movements of population affects the public health Regional conflicts over food and water in shortages

Indirect impacts

CLIMATE CHANGE
NONINFECTIOUS HEALTH EFFECTS

Temperature changes esp in temperate region increase morbidity and mortality Malnutrition

INFECTIOUS HEALTH EFFECTS

Infectious agents (vector borne disease) Person-to-person infection transmission Food borne diseases

INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Vector borne diseases: Malaria Dengue Trypanosomiasis Viral encephalitis Schistosomiasis Etc.

INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Increased temperatures and changed rainfall would

affect:
range; proliferation;

behaviour of the vectors and intermediate hosts;

viability; maturation rates of the agents.

Increased risk in endemic areas, tropical and

subtropical countries due to poor public health defense

INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Malaria
Approximately 45% of the world's population currently

live in zones that are defined climatically as areas of potential malaria transmission Assuming that other factors remain constant this would increase to around 60% towards the end of the next century Malaria is moving to higher altitudes affect highland populations who are currently protected

INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Dengue
Caused by the worlds

most prevalent mosquito-borne virus

Transmitted principally by Aedes aegypti and Aedes

albopictus These mosquitoes are strongly affected by ecological and human drivers

Variability in temperature Moisture Solar radiation

INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Viral encephalitis borne by ticks: occurs in parts of western Europe and Scandinavia and is sensitive to the climate Leishmaniasis: currently endemic in the rural Mediterranean region of Europe and in the eastern Mediterranean. Climate change may extend the habitat of the sandfly vector northwards

INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Lyme disease: caused by the spirochaete Borrelia burgdorferi, transmitted in Europe and the northeastern United States by the tick Ixodes ricinus. Temperature influences the tick's life cycle of three stages (larvae, nymphs, adults) and, hence, the probabilityo f transmission of the spirochaete.

FOOD PRODUCTION, HUNGER & MALNUTRITION

Climate change would affect the production of food,

especially that of cereal crops changes in temperature, soil moisture, carbon dioxide "fertilisation," and pest and pathogen activity
tropical and subtropical countries would be

most affected, especially poor and economically underdeveloped populations who would
be unable to offset reduced agricultural yields by trade

FOOD PRODUCTION, HUNGER & MALNUTRITION

Long term climatic changes, however, might have a net

negative impact on world agriculture

Hunger and malnutrition increase the risk of infant and child mortality physical and intellectual stunting Water supplies Tensions over shortages of fresh water, especially in low to middle latitude locations

WHO estimated mortality (per million people) attributable to climate change by the year 2000

What is projection of climate change?

-examination of scenarios of possible climate change that can come about because of continuing emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important substances.

The amount and speed of future climate change will ultimately depend on :
Whether greenhouse gases and aerosol

concentrations increase, stay the same or decrease.

temperature, precipitation and sea level) respond to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. natural influences (e.g. from volcanic activity and changes in the suns intensity) and its internal variability (referring to random changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans).

How strongly features of the climate (e.g.

How much the climate varies as a result of

Tools to make projection of climate change : consists of three-dimensional dynamical and physical models of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and cryosphere (areas of Earth where the surface is frozen), which are coupled together and run on powerful supercomputers = climate models

 There are many models around the world, all with

different formulations, strengths and weaknesses which make the climate change projections uncertain.

 Since it is difficult to choose the best model,

Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has defined four levels of certainty in projections : Virtually certain to very likely : established projections which most models agree on Very likely : new projections which most newer models agree on Likely : new projections which a smaller number of models agree on Medium likelihood : models are unresolved but changes are physically plausible

Examples
Virtually Certain to Very Likely Changes : Northern Hemisphere snow cover

and sea-ice extent decrease. Global mean water vapor, precipitation and evaporation increase. An increase in temperature implies the atmosphere can hold more water vapour leading to a more vigorous global hydrological cycle. The intensity of rainfall events increases, and this increase is greater than that expected from a simple change in the mean rainfall.

 The mean state of the tropical Pacific becomes more

El Nino-like with greater warming in the east in comparison with the west and a corresponding eastward shift in precipitation. Interannual variability in the northern summer monsoon increases.

Very Likely Changes : The direct radiative effect of sulphate aerosols (a reduction in solar heating) leads to a reduction in mid 21st century warming in comparison to the case with no direct effect. An increase in temperature and humidity leads to greater values of the heat index a measure of discomfort on hot days.

Likely Changes :
Extremes of warm temperatures are more likely to

occur in regions of reduced soil moisture and extremes of cold temperatures are more likely to occur in regions of snow and ice retreat.

Medium Likelihood Changes :

Some models show an increase in the amplitude and

frequency of El Nino events, but there is no consensus across models.

Global Mean Changes

It is estimated that the range of global mean

temperature warming at 2100 (relative to 1990) is 1.4C to 5.8C Some of the effects of this warming are: Rising of sea level by 3.5 to 34.6 inches between 1990 and 2100 Changes in precipitation patterns Serious human health problems d/t increasing heat stress, worsening air pollution, declining water quality, etc.

Prevention
Educate socities Public Forums Interactive Sessions (School students) Publication of educational material Production of a video documentary

(Danida Funded Project, MMCC)

Prevention
Motivate as many sectors to positive action on climate

changes as a result of an effective advocacy and awareness campaign.

Stakeholders Workshop/Seminars NGOs Briefings & Training Climate Change Seminars Partnerships

(Danida Funded Project, MMCC)

NEDOs activity for reducing GHG emission

NEDO- New Energy and Industrial Technology

Development Organization NEDO has presented their planned to reduce Green House gas emission in CTI INDUSTRY JOINT SEMINAR, February 25, 2005,Beijing, CHINA .

NEDOs activity for reducing GHG emission

Among their plans: Advanced industrial furnace *furnace: enclosed chamber in which material can be heated to very high temperature Development technology for new energy conservation system Program for development of photovoltaic generation system

NEDOs activity for reducing GHG emission

Advanced industrial furnace

NEDOs activity for reducing GHG emission

Photovoltaic is a method of generating electrical power by converting solar radiation into direct current electricity using semiconductors that exhibit the photovoltaic effect(wikipedia) Advantage: recycle solar energy into electricity supply

Warming Seas Threaten Coral Off Indonesia

The New York Times, By JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF August 19, 2010,
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/19/warming-seas-threaten-coral-off-indonesia/

According to marine biologists, large swaths of coral

reef in the Andaman Sea off the north coast of Sumatra are now up to 80 percent bleached, with more colonies expected to die off in the coming months to a spike in sea temperatures in May that left waters in the area about 7 degrees Fahrenheit above average A similar threat to reefs in other areas which were recorded in Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia and other parts of Indonesia.

Malaysia closes dive sites

29 July 2010, Divernet, http://www.divernet.com/home_diving_news/550119/malaysia_closes_dive_sites.html

The Malaysian Government has closed twelve key reef

sites until the end of October The closures include the diving destinations of Tioman and Redang islands, due to damage caused by a combination of climate change and tourism Large areas of coral have been showing signs of dying off due to a rise in sea temperature, currently some 2C above normal levels at 31C

Climate change threatens migratory birds

BY JAY ROOT, ASSOCIATED PRESS, THURSDAY MAR 11, 2010, http://www.salon.com/wires/us/2010/03/11/D9ECO29O1_us_climate_birds/index.html

oceanic birds, such as petrels and albatrosses, are at

particular risk from a rapidly changing marine ecosystem and rising sea levels Seabirds tend to have low reproductive potential and often nest on islands that can be inundated by rising sea levels, changes in water chemistry and other disruptions to the marine ecosystem

Pakistani floods reportedly triggered by climate change

By Amjad Bashir Siddiqi For CentralAsiaOnline.com, 2010-08-19, http://centralasiaonline.com/cocoon/caii/xhtml/en_GB/features/caii/features/pakistan/2010/08/19/feature-01

The super-floods that swept from Kashmir and Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa down to the southern end of Sindh are a harbinger of global climate changes influence on South Asia This years extreme and unusual weather represents global climate change, said Director General of Pakistan Meteorology Department, Dr. Qamar-uzZaman Chaudhary

Climate change threatens Asia rice production

August 20, 2010, Commodity Online
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Climate-change-threatens-Asia-rice-production-31109-3-1.html

Rising temperatures during the past 25 years have

already slashed the yield growth rate of rice by 10% to 20% in several areas In Vietnam, for example, more than 50% of rice production is grown in the Mekong River delta, all of which would be affected by sea-level rises Flooding caused by rising sea levels puts as much as 49 million acres of rice-growing area at risk of being submerged

References
McMichael, A., & Haines, A. (1997). Global climate

potential effects on health. British

change: the Medical Journal, 315(7111), 805.

Jonathan A Patz, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Tracey

Holloway, & Jonathan A Foley. (2005). Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature, 438(7066), 3107. Retrieved August 21, 2010, from ProQuest Health and Medical Complete. (Document ID: 936965231). http://www.ambiente.sp.gov.br/proclima/artigos_dissertacoes/artigos_ ingles/projectionsofafutureclimatechange.pdf www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futurecc.html www.ucsusa.org Global Warming