Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
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Rational choice paradigm -- effective decision makers identify, select, and apply the best possible alternative Two main elements of rational choice
1. Subjective expected utility determines choice
with highest value (maximization) 2. Decision making process systematic stages of decision making
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Problems/opportunities are constructed from ambiguous information, not given to us Influenced by cognitive and emotional biases Five problem identification challenges
Stakeholder framing Mental models Decisive leadership
Solution-focused problems
Perceptual defense
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Be aware of perceptual and diagnostic limitations Fight against pressure to look decisive Maintain divine discontent (aversion to complacency) Discuss the situation with colleagues -- see different perspectives
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more
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we can recall the event, even though other factors influence ease of recall
3. Representativeness heuristic -- we estimate probabilities by
how much they are similar to something else (e.g. stereotypes) even when better info about probabilities is available
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Paralyzed by Choice
Decision makers are less likely to make any decision at all as the number of options increases Occurs even when there are clear benefits of selecting any alternative (such as joining a company pension plan).
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Emotions form preferences before we consciously evaluate those choices Moods and emotions influence how well we follow the decision process We listen in on our emotions and use that information to make choices
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Ability to know when a problem or opportunity exists and select the best course of action without conscious reasoning Intuition as emotional experience
Gut feelings are emotional signals Not all emotional signals are intuition
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Systematically evaluate alternatives against relevant factors Be aware of effects of emotions on decision preferences and evaluation process Scenario planning
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Confirmation bias
Inflate quality of the selected option; forget or
Escalation of commitment
Repeating or further investing in an apparently bad
decision Caused by self-justification, prospect theory effect, perceptual blinders, closing costs
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Separate decision choosers from evaluators Establish a preset level to abandon the project
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Tangible Creativity
Alex Beim, founder and chief creative technologist of Tangible Interaction Design in Vancouver, relies on creative thinking to invent
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Creativity Defined
Developing an original idea that makes a socially recognized contribution Applies to all aspects of the decision process problems, alternatives, solutions
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Illumination
Incubation
Preparation
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Independent imagination
Persistence
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Learning orientation
Encourage experimentation Tolerate mistakes
Open communication and sufficient resources Unclear/complex effects of team competition and time pressure on creativity
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Creative Activities
Redefine the Problem Associative Play Storytelling CrossPollination Diverse teams
Artistic activities
Morphological analysis
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The degree to which employees influence how their work is organized and carried out
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Employee Involvement
Better problem identification Synergy produces more/better solutions Better at selecting the best choice Higher decision commitment
Contingencies of Involvement
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Contingencies of Involvement
Higher employee involvement is better when:
Decision Structure Knowledge Source Decision Commitment
Problem is new & complex (i.e nonprogrammed decision) Employees have relevant knowledge beyond leader Employees would lack commitment unless involved 1. Norms support firms goals 2. Employee agreement likely
Risk of Conflict
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Outcome 2 (-2)
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Outcome 3 (+1)
Utility -- Value or happiness produced by each option from value of expected outcomes
Choice B has higher utility (value) than choice A Choice B expected utility is (.8x7)+(.2x-2)+(.3x1)=6.4
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Choice B .2 .3
Outcome 1 (+7)
Outcome 2 (-2)
Outcome 3 (+1)
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Word Search
FCIRVEEALTETITVEERS
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Burning Ropes