Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
15-8
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Independent events
Two events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of
one does not alter the likelihood of the other event occurring
Events that are not independent are called dependent events
If two events A and B are independent, the following relationship
holds:
Suppose that are n independents events. Then
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
n 3 2 1
n 3 2 1
A P A P A P A P
A and A and A and A P
=
( ) ( ) ( ) B P A P AandB P =
n 3 2 1
A , A , A , A
15-9
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Complementary events
The complement of an event is the set of outcomes of a
sample space for which the event does not occur
Two events that are complements of each other are said to
be complementary events
(Note: complementary events are mutually exclusive)
Suppose we define the events:
A = no one has the characteristic
B = at least 1 person has the characteristic
Then A and B are complementary events
P (at least 1 person has the characteristic)
= 1 P (no person has the characteristic)
15-10
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Conditional probabilities
The probability that event A will occur, given that an event
B has occurred, is called the conditional probability that A
will occur, given that B has occurred
The notation for this conditional probability is P (A|B)
For any two events, A and B, the following relationship
holds:
( )
( )
( ) B P
B and A P
B A P =
15-11
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Conditional probabilities (cont)
If two events A and B are independent
Substituting this result
That is, for independent events A and B the conditional
probability that event A will occur, given that event B had
occurred, is simply the probability that event A will occur
( ) ( ) ( ) B P A P B A P =
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( ) A P
B P
B P A P
B A P
=
=
15-12
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.2 Probability of events (cont)
The general addition law
When two events are not mutually exclusive, use the
following general addition law
If the events A and B are mutually exclusive,
P(A and B) = 0
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) B and A P B P A P B or A P + =
15-13
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.3 Venn diagrams
Sample spaces and events are often presented in a visual
display called a Venn diagram
Use the following conventions
A sample space is represented by a rectangle
Events are represented by regions within the rectangle. This
is usually done using circles
Venn diagrams are used to assist in presenting a picture of
the union and intersection of events, and in the calculation of
probabilities
15-14
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
Definitions
The union of two events A and B is the set of all outcomes that
are in event A or event B. The notation is:
Union of event A and event B = A B
Hence, we could write, for example, P (A B) instead of
P(A or B)
The intersection of two events A and B is the set of all
outcomes that are in both event A and event B. The notation
is:
Intersection of event A and event B = A B
Hence, we could write, for example, P (A B) instead of
P(AandB)
15-15
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The shaded area is event A
15-16
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The union of two events A and B is the set of all
outcomes that are in event A or event B
B A B A = event and event of Union
15-17
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The intersection of two events A and B is the set of all
outcomes that are in both event A and event B.
B A B A = event and event of on Intersecti
15-18
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The intersection of events A, B and C is the set of all
outcomes that is in events A, B and C
C B A C and B and A events of on Intersecti =
A B
C
15-19
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.4 Probability tree diagrams
Probability tree diagrams can be a useful visual display
of probabilities
The diagrams are especially useful for determining
probabilities involving events that are not independent
The joint probabilities for combinations of these events
are found by multiplying the probabilities along the
branches from the beginning of the tree
If the events are not independent, the probabilities on
the second tier of branches will be conditional
probabilities, since their values will depend on what
happened in the first event
15-20
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.4 Probability tree diagrams (cont..)
Example
A clothing store has just imported a new range of suede
jackets that it has advertised at a bargain price on a rack
inside the store. The probability that a customer will try on a
jacket is 0.40. If a customer tries on a jacket, the probability
that he or she will buy it is 0.70. If a customer does not try
on a jacket, the probability that he or she will buy it is 0.15.
Calculate the probability that:
(a) a customer will try on a jacket and will buy it
(b) a customer will try on a jacket and will not buy it
(c) a customer will not try on a jacket and will buy it
(d) a customer will not try on a jacket and will not buy it
15-21
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
15.4 Probability tree diagrams (cont..)
Solution
15-22
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e
Summary
We have looked at understanding elementary
probability concepts
We calculated the probability of events
We distinguished between mutually exclusive,
dependent and independent events
We also looked at calculating conditional probabilities
We understood and used the general addition law for
probabilities
We understood and applied Venn diagrams
We understood and applied probability tree diagrams