CALIFORNIA HOUSING

MARKET FORECAST
April 2014

California Housing Market Outlook

Indicator
SFH Resales (000s)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

416.5

422.6

439.8

413.9

401.2

30.4% 24.5% -12.3%

1.4%

4.1%

-5.9%

-3.1%

Median Price ($000s) $348.5 $275.0 $305.0 $286.0

$319.3

$407.2

$440.7

% Change

-6.2%

11.6%

27.5%

8.2%

% Change

381.4

474.9

-37.8% -21.1% 10.9%

30-Yr FRM

6.0%

5.0%

4.7%

4.5%

3.7%

4.0%

5.3%

1-Yr ARM

5.2%

4.7%

3.8%

3.0%

2.7%

2.6%

3.1%

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Sales Improve after Q1, but Down Overall for

2014; Price Continues to Grow

700

Median Price
Price
(Thousand)
Thousands

Thousands

Units
(Thousand)

Sales of Existing Detached

Homes

600
500
414 401

400

$600
$500

$441

$400
$407
$300

300
$200
200
$100

100

$0

0
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

CA: Dollar Volume Steadily Improving

Up 20.1% in 2013, Up 4.9% in 2014
$ in Billion

% Change

$400

30%
$ Volume of Sales

Percent Change

$350
$300

20%
$301

-60%

$244

$250

10%
0%

$200

$169

$164
$150

$133

$131

$127

$177
-10%

$140

$121
-20%

$100
$50

-30%

$0

-40%
2005

2006

2007

2008

SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

U.S. Economic Outlook 2014

Indicator

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

US GDP

-0.3%

-3.4%

2.4%

1.8%

2.8%

1.9%

2.8%

Nonfarm Job Growth

-0.6%

-4.4%

-0.7%

1.2%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

Unemployment

5.8%

9.3%

9.6%

8.9%

8.1%

7.4%

7.0%

CPI
Real Disposable
Income, % Change

3.8%

-0.4%

1.6%

3.1%

2.1%

1.5%

2.0%

0.5%

0.9%

1.8%

1.3%

1.5%

0.7%

3.0%

SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

California Economic Outlook 2014

Indicator

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f

Nonfarm Job Growth

-1.3%

-6.0%

1.1%

1.6%

1.7%

1.9%

Unemployment Rate

7.2%

11.3% 12.3% 11.8%

10.5%

8.9%

8.3%

Population Growth
Real Disposable
Income, % Change

0.8%

0.6%

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.9%

0.9%

1.5%

-3.9%

1.0%

1.9%

1.1%

0.9%

3.0%

SERIES: CA Economic Outlook

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

-1.1%