Frankie Damian Honglu Liu Presented March 13, 2012 AGENDA Industry Overview Competitors Analysis Company Overview Modeling Recommendation Industry Analysis Consumer Electronics Industry is very competitive
Products can be looked at as a luxury and not a necessity.
Demand is driven by the desire of the product not the need
Demand for Apple products is expected to continue to grow rapidly Competitors Google (GOOG) o Market cap. 196.76 Billion Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) o Market cap. 47.62 Billion Research in Motion (RIMM) o Market cap. 6.76 Billion Dell (DELL) o Market cap. 30.15 Billion Amazon (AMZN) o Market cap. 83.45 Billion Source: Yahoo! Finance Competitors Products Company
Phones Computers Tablets Digital Music Players
AAPL
Yes Yes Yes Yes
GOOG Yes, kind of No Yes, kind of No HPQ No Yes No No RIMM
Yes No Yes DELL No Yes Yes No AMZN No No Yes No MMI Yes No Yes No Competitors Key Statistics Company Revenue P/E R.O.A. EPS AAPL 127.84 Billion 15.71 24.01% 35.17 GOOG 37.9 Billion 20.33 11.73% 29.76 HPQ 124.98 Billion 8.41 5.34% 2.86 RIMM 19.80 Billion 3.09 14.36% 4.25 DELL 62.07 Billion 9.02 6.74% 1.88 AMZN 48.08 Billion 133.86 2.44% 1.37 MMI 13.06 Billion N/A -.06% -.84 Source: Yahoo! Finance COMPANY OVERVIEW Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a multinational corporation that designs, manufactures and markets personal computers, software, electronics and other creative devices.
Source: Yahoo! Finance PRODUCTS iPhone iPad Mac Hardware Products o Desktop computers: iMac, Mac Pro and Mac mini o Portable computers: MacBook Pro and MacBook Air iPod o Touch; Nano; Shuffle; Classic iTunes + iTunes Store Mac App Store Software Products and Computer Technologies iCloud Source: Apple 10-K (2011) iPhone iPad
iPod MacBooks Mac Desktops Apple TV Desktops 6% Portables 14% 3 0% 4 0% 5 0% iPod 7% Music Related Products or Services 6% iPhone and realted pro & services 43% iPad and related pro & services 19% Peripherals and other hardware 2% Software, service and others 3% Data Source: Apple 10-K (2011) BASIC FINANCIAL DATA Source: Bloomberg BASIC FINANCIAL DATA Source: Bloomberg HISTORICAL STOCK PRICE Source: Bloomberg 20 Day vs. 200 Day Moving Average Source: Yahoo! Finance New Products??? Apple Television o display monitor or screen would be more fitting.
Apple Game Counsel o Epic Games, CEO Mike Capps spoke of the possibility of a Bluetooth controller being developed for the iPad. With a hypothetical controller combined with AirPlay and an Apple TV, he believes Apple could challenge Microsoft's Xbox and Sony's PlayStation platforms for the home console gaming market.
Source: AppleInsider.com Key Risk Factors Global Economic Conditions Highly competitive global market subject to rapid technological change o Wide Moat Must successfully manage frequent product introductions and transitions Operating results depend on Apples ability to obtain components in sufficient quantity Depend on outsourcing, many outside the U.S. Relies on third-party intellectual property and digital content The Apple Moat Huge Market Share?
Industry Market Cap. of Industry Apples Hybrid Industry Market Share Personal Computers 544.80 Billion Internet Information Providers (GOOG) 196.76 Billion Diversified Computer Systems 293 Billion Catalog and Mail Orders (AMZN) 149.1 Billion Apple 514.67 Billion 43.48% Source: Yahoo! Finance Explaining the Hybrid Market As we pointed out earlier Apple does NOT have a true competitor Not one company in the Technology industry competes with Apple in all business segments.
So we created this Hybrid Industry to really try and put Apples market share in perspective.
We took the market capitalization of all the industries of Apples competitors and compared Apples Market Cap. to this Hybrid industry instead off just the Personal Computers Industry, which Apple clearly dominates. The Moat Continued Low-Cost Producer?
Apple outsources all of its production o Because it can get it at a very low cost overseas.
Average 5 year Gross Margin of 40% The Moat Continued Patents, Copyrights, or Governmental Approvals and Licenses? Apple currently has 3.5 Billion Intangible Assets o Typically are patents and copyrights Very active in filing patents on new products o Literally everything they make They also peruse legal action
Apple is very secretive and protects its products Source: Apple 10-K (2011) The Moat Continued Unique Corporate Culture? o Just go into an Apple store o It is no secret that the culture at Apple is very unique High-Customer Switching Costs o Apple doesn'tt necessarily have high switching costs but the way all of the products integrate with each other makes it very convenient and attractive to own more Apple products. The Network Effect? o This is created by being a first-mover in an emerging technology. Because the networks value increases as more people use it, a network is created that can create a massive moat.
So Apples Moat? Morning Star classifies Apples moat as being narrow
I say its bigger. moderate or even wide Graham-Greenblatt 1 year Earnings Growth 35.17% Graham o 7-10 year growth 347%
Greenblatt o APPL=353.7% o GOOG=46.37% o RIMM=148.26% o HPQ=81.81% o DELL=42.19% Competitors Graham-Greenblatt Company 1 yr. EPS Growth Graham Greenblatt AAPL 35.17% 347% 353.3% GOOG 66.67% 6.21% 46.37% HPQ 55.58% .21% 81.81% RIMM 32.11% 2.65% 148.26% DELL 15.95% .26% 42.19% Source: Yahoo! Finance Recommendation BUY 100 shares at the market.
Will have to get permission because it will exceed the limit of 2.5% of initial position.