management in banks: Looking back and moving ahead K.C. Chakrabarty
Deputy Governor Reserve Bank of India Introduction Business of banking is business of intermediation Credit risk is integral to banking business When banking was simple Lending decisions - made on impressionistic basis Credit risk management straightforward Information requirements minimal As banking became diverse, complex, sophisticate Risks increased, became transmitive and contagious But, credit risk management lagged behind And, information systems remained primitive and did not capture granular data correctly Objectives Examine how Indian banks have dealt with credit risk over the last two decades Evolution of regulatory framework Analyse trends in asset quality of Indian banks Trends in gross and net NPAs Trends in slippages, write offs and recoveries Trends in restructuring Dwell on some facets that have a bearing on the asset quality of banks Risk management and primitive information systems GDP growth trends Size / segment analysis of impaired assets General governance and management structure Credit appraisal and monitoring standards Way forward for the regulators, policy makers, banks and bank customers Evolution of NPA regulation in India Prudential norms for NPAs 1985 First-ever system of NPA classification - Health Code system Classification of advances into eight categories ranging from 1 (Satisfactory) to 8 (Bad and Doubtful Debts)
1992 Prudential norms on income recognition, asset classification and provisioning introduced Restructuring guidelines introduced Assets, where the terms of the loan agreement regarding interest and principal is renegotiated or rescheduled after commencement of production to be classified as sub- standard 2001 90 day norm for NPAs introduced (effective from March 31, 2004) specified asset classification treatment of restructured accounts tightened NPA trends Reflecting regulatory initiatives NPAs rose when prudential regulations introduced - reduced thereafter as regulatory initiatives facilitated improved credit risk management by banks Pace of introduction / tightening of regulatory reforms slowed after 2001 Regulatory norms were not further tightened during the good pre-crisis years Reflected in poor credit standards and increased delinquencies
Provisioning levels remained low for the Indian banking sector Norms with regard to floating provisions changed Provisioning coverage ratio was introduced but relaxed thereafter Dynamic provisioning coverage yet to be introduced Mere tweaking and flip flop approach to Prudential norms Restructuring increased as regulatory requirements were relaxed, especially in the post crisis years One time special dispensation for asset classification of restructured accounts provided to deal with the impact of the global financial crisis Trends in asset quality Trends in gross and net NPAs Early 1990s NPA ratios rose Immediate impact of prudential norms
In recent years, NPA ratios have been rising, though on an average, the ratios are not higher Average NPA in % GNPA NNPAs 1997-2001 12.8 8.4 2001-2005 8.5 4.2 2005-2009 3.1 1.2 2009-2013 2.6 1.2 Mar 2013 3.4 1.7 Sep 2013 4.2 2.2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 M a r - 9 6 M a r - 9 8 M a r - 0 0 M a r - 0 2 M a r - 0 4 M a r - 0 6 M a r - 0 8 M a r - 1 0 M a r - 1 2 S e p - 1 3 P e r
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Gross NPA ratio Net NPA ratio Divergent bank group wise trends 1996-2003 wide variation between NPA ratio of PSBs and other bank groups
2003-06 - NPA ratios of all bank groups moved in tandem
2007-09 NPA ratios begin to decouple
After 2009, gap between PSBs and other bank groups started rising
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 All banks PSB OPB NPB FB A v e r a g e
G N P A
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1997-2001 2001-2005 2005-2009 2009-2013 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 M a r - 9 6 M a r - 9 8 M a r - 0 0 M a r - 0 2 M a r - 0 4 M a r - 0 6 M a r - 0 8 M a r - 1 0 M a r - 1 2 S e p - 1 3 G N P A
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PSB OPB NPB FB PSBs growing asset quality concerns PSBs share a disproportionate and increasing burden of NPAs especially in recent years
Share in total bank credit M a r - 0 3
M a r - 0 7
M a r - 0 8
M a r - 0 9
M a r - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
PSBs 74.0 72.8 72.5 75.2 76.2 75.3 OPBs 6.2 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.6 5.0 NPBs 12.8 16.2 16.4 15.0 14.8 14.7 FBs 6.9 6.4 6.5 5.6 4.5 5.0 Share in total bank GNPA M a r - 0 3
M a r - 0 7
M a r - 0 8
M a r - 0 9
M a r - 1 3
S e p - 1 3
PSBs 75.4 76.6 71.1 64.5 84.8 86.1 OPBs 6.2 5.9 4.6 4.5 2.8 2.8 NPBs 14.2 12.5 18.7 20.3 8.0 6.8 FBs 4.2 4.9 5.6 10.7 4.3 4.3 Looking beyond the veil of headline numbers Gross and net NPAs numbers have limitations!
In the 1990s, only data about gross and net NPAs were available Subsequently, data on flow of NPAs (fresh accretions and recoveries) collected, followed by data on restructuring, which allowed better understanding of the real problem of credit management in the banks A more detailed understanding of trends in asset quality of banks required collection and analysis of granular data about various aspects of NPA management viz. Slippages, Write offs and Recoveries Segment wise and activity wise Such data has been collected only in recent years(since 2009), largely due to regulatory impetus The current analysis is an attempt to examine trends in asset quality based on this detailed information NPA movement over the last decade Increasing slippages and write offs since the crisis years New accretion to NPAs exceeds reduction in NPAs post crisis All amount in (Rs crore) 2001-2013 2001-2007 2007-2013 NPAs at Beginning of the period 60,434 60,434 50,513 New Accretion to NPAs during the period 624,772 159,072 465,700 Reduction in NPAs during the period 492,006 168,993 323,013 Due to upgradation 110,918 24,003 86,915 Due to write-off 203,616 73,941 129,675 Due to actual recovery 177,473 71,049 106,424 NPAs at End of the period 193,200 50,513 193,200 Slippages Trends Slippages better metric to assess credit management Slippages & net slippages Showed a declining trend in the early 2000s; started rising since 2006-07
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 p e r
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SlippageRatio Net Slippage Ratio Gross NPA Ratio (RHS) Recovery efforts deteriorating Extent to which banks able to reduce NPAs through recovery efforts deteriorating evidenced by increasing ratio of slippages to recovery and upgradation Average Slippage to (Recovery + Upgradation) Ratio Slippage to (Recovery + Upgradation) Ratio Mar-01 191.3 Mar-02 279.0 Mar-03 190.5 Mar-04 167.1 Mar-05 129.5 Mar-06 125.4 Mar-07 173.2 Mar-08 205.2 Mar-09 221.0 Mar-10 264.1 Mar-11 217.0 Mar-12 255.9 Mar-13 257.0 PSB OPB NPB FB 2001-13 191.1 191.3 452.8 438.6 2001-07 211.3 179.6 376.6 350.6 2007-13 220.6 202.7 418.7 430.3 Recovery & write offs associated moral hazard Write offs contributing significantly in reduction in NPAs Reducing incentives to improve recovery efforts Slippages exceeding reduction in NPAs especially post crisis The trends indicate weaknesses in credit as well as recovery management Upgradation as % of reduction in NPAs Write off as % of reduction in NPAs Recovery as % of reduction in NPAs Mar-01 12.6 39.3 48.1 Mar-02 12.0 49.4 38.7 Mar-03 16.0 50.7 33.4 Mar-04 12.3 48.3 39.4 Mar-05 15.2 39.0 45.8 Mar-06 15.2 40.2 44.6 Mar-07 14.5 42.5 42.9 Mar-08 17.4 40.7 41.8 Mar-09 23.8 39.6 36.6 Mar-10 21.3 50.2 28.4 Mar-11 24.2 42.4 33.4 Mar-12 31.7 33.4 34.9 Mar-13 33.1 37.8 29.2 Reduction as a % of slippages 2001-13 78.4 2001-07 105.3 2007-13 70.8 Upgradation as a % of slippages 2001-13 17.6 2001-07 14.9 2007-13 18.4 Write-Off and recovery from Write-offs Recovery from written off Accounts during the FY ended (Rs. crore) Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 All Banks 424 501 479 1,065 1,768 2,902 2,480 3,101 3,686 4,362 5,036 5,191 6,960 PSBs 418 494 463 1,008 1,612 2,699 2,220 2,824 3,372 3,819 4,412 4,656 5,953 OPBs 2 3 5 26 45 84 132 173 217 207 231 201 200 NPBs 3 2 4 30 111 109 120 87 92 197 327 294 779 FBs 0 1 6 0 0 10 8 16 4 139 66 40 29 Write offs of NPAs during the FY ended Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 All Banks 6,446 8,711 12,021 13,559 10,823 11,657 11,621 11,653 15,996 25,019 23,896 20,892 32,218 PSBs 5,555 6,428 9,448 11,308 8,048 8,799 9,189 8,019 6,966 11,185 17,794 15,551 27,013 OPBs 331 588 653 525 464 544 610 724 616 884 682 671 863 NPBs 580 896 1,564 1,286 1,682 1,409 1,232 1,577 5,063 6,712 2,336 3,024 3,487 FBs 20 798 356 440 628 905 590 1,334 3,350 6,238 3,083 1,646 855 Substantial Write-off but recovery from write-off has been very poor Divergent bank group wise trends - slippages In the aftermath of the crisis, slippage ratios rose, especially for FBs and NPBs
FBs and NPBs, though quickly arrested deterioration in asset quality post-crisis through improved credit risk management
In recent years, the ratio rose sharply for PSBs Slippage Ratio All Banks PSB OPB NPB FB Mar-07 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 Mar-08 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.1 2.1 Mar-09 2.2 1.8 1.9 3.0 5.5 Mar-10 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0 5.5 Mar-11 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.3 2.2 Mar-12 2.5 2.8 1.5 1.1 2.3 Mar-13 2.6 3.1 1.8 1.2 1.8 Average slippage ratio PSB OPB NPB FB 2001-13 2.7 2.6 3.9 2.8 2001-07 3.2 3.3 5.7 2.4 2007-13 2.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 Slippage ratio = fresh accretion to NPAs during the year to standard advances at the beginning of the year
Divergent bank group wise trends net slippages Recovery performance also varied across banks as revealed by trends in net slippages Net Slippage Ratio All Banks PSB OPB NPB FB Mar-07 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.5 1.0 Mar-08 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.6 Mar-09 1.2 0.7 1.0 2.4 4.7 Mar-10 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 3.9 Mar-11 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 Mar-12 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.5 1.5 Mar-13 1.6 1.9 0.8 0.6 1.1 Average net slippage ratio PSB OPB NPB FB 2001-13 1.3 1.3 2.5 1.8 2001-07 1.3 1.6 3.6 1.4 2007-13 1.2 0.8 1.3 2.1
Net slippage ratio is slippage ratio net of recoveries Divergent bank group wise trends slippages and fresh restructured accounts The bank group wise trends in slippages are further re-enforced when the trends in slippages and fresh restructuring are examined All banks PSB OPB NPB FB Mar-09 5.1 5.2 5.2 3.9 6.8 Mar-10 5.4 5.6 4.0 4.0 6.8 Mar-11 2.9 3.2 2.7 1.5 2.3 Mar-12 5.4 6.5 2.8 1.9 2.3 Mar-13 5.9 7.1 3.4 1.8 1.8 Slippages + fresh restructured ratio Summing up Standards of credit and recovery administration is inefficient and poor as is reflected from the fact that upgradation as a % of slippage is very low only less than 20 % of accounts have been upgraded Recoveries are very less- A major part of reduction is through write-off Even during 2001-07, recoveries and upgradation were not as good-things have considerably deteriorated thereafter
Gross NPA in itself not a problem but in conjunction with restructured advances they have emerged as a major issue
Restructured Accounts Trends Growth in restructured accounts mixed trend in early 2000s sharp uptick in 2008 / 2009 due to the one time regulatory dispensation Continued high growth rate thereafter -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 M a r - 0 3 M a r - 0 4 M a r - 0 5 M a r - 0 6 M a r - 0 7 M a r - 0 8 M a r - 0 9 M a r - 1 0 M a r - 1 1 M a r - 1 2 M a r - 1 3 g r o w t h
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Restructured standard advances ratio GNPA ratio Restructured standard advances growth rate (RHS) GNPA growth rate (RHS) Restructured Accounts Use and Misuse Forbearance a necessity, especially for viable accounts facing temporary difficulties But, increasing evidence of misuse of facility for ever- greening of problem accounts by banks Restructuring of unviable units Deserving & viable units especially for small borrowers get overlooked Promoters contribution to equity not ensured Restructuring increasingly used as a tool of NPA management by banks All Banks (%) Mar- 09 Mar -10 Mar- 11 Mar- 12 Mar -13 GNPA Ratio 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.9 3.4 (GNPA + Rest. Std. Adv) to Total Adv. 5.1 6.7 5.8 7.6 9.2 (GNPA + Rest. Std. Adv) to Total Adv.
Mar- 09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 PSBs 5.1 7.3 6.6 8.9 11.1 OPBs 5.7 5.9 4.9 5.3 5.9 NPBs 5.5 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 FBs 5.0 4.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 Divergent bank group wise trends in restructuring and write -off Asset quality deteriorates further if restructured accounts and write offs are included, especially in the case of PSBs Banks which are more aggressive in identifying NPAs appear to be able to manage them better 0 20 40 60 80 100 PSB OPB NPB FB p e r
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Share of NPA, restructuring and write offs in total impaired assets - 2013 Gross NPA Restructured Standard Advances Cumulative Write Off Impaired Assets ratio = (GNPA + Restructured Standard Advances +Cumulative write off) to (Total Advances + Cumulative write off) Impaired Assets ratio PSB OPB NPB FB Mar-09 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.5 Mar-10 8.8 7.3 7.3 9.5 Mar-11 8.1 6.1 5.5 7.2 Mar-12 10.0 6.3 5.4 6.6 Mar-13 12.1 6.8 5.3 6.4 Summing up.. Only less then 10% of the total amount written off (including the Technical Write-off ) is recovered The amount of restructuring and write offs distorts inter-segment comparison of credit quality Technical write off creates moral hazard and creates a dent in overall recovery efforts Banks should be given the freedom to decide whether the cases involve restructuring - where only the technical covenants of the loan or the date of commencement of commercial production might have changed and the banks are convinced that the pay-offs from asset created will be sufficient to repay the loan - Cases where the reduction does not bring down the lending rate below base rate should not be considered as concession
I 24 Segment wise NPA Trends Deterioration in asset quality highest for industries segment Though banks devote fewer resources to the administration of small credits vis--vis larger credits Within industries segment - deterioration driven by medium and large enterprises (50% share in NPAs) 0 5 10 15 20 Agriculture Industries Services Retail Agriculture Industries Services Retail Gross NPA ratio Impaired Assets ratio p e r
Infrastructure projects strain on banks regulatory, administrative and legal constraints Banks took inadequate cognizance of the need for contingency planning for large projects in their appraisal absence or insufficiency of user charges Impaired Assets ratio In % Mar-09 Mar-13 Mining 4.0 8.2 Iron and Steel 9.3 16.9 Textiles 16.7 21.3 Infrastructure 5.0 18.0 Real Estate 2.5 2.0 Large ticket advances greater share in restructured accounts Restructuring provided primarily to large corporates medium and large accounts make up over 90 per cent of restructured accounts larger ticket accounts hold major share in CDR
in % Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Share in total bank credit Micro+Small* 10.1 11.4 12.0 10.8 10.7 Medium+Large 39.9 42.9 45.0 46.8 48.4 Share in total bank NPA Micro+Small 16.1 20.4 21.1 17.5 17.2 Medium+Large 23.8 28.7 27.5 37.7 48.8 Share in total bank restructuring Micro+Small 12.2 7.7 7.7 4.3 3.4 Medium+Large 77.4 69.6 71.1 83.0 90.8 * The data for Medium & Large and Micro & Small pertains to Industries and services sectors. Asset quality worse for Directed Lending A myth General belief is that directed lending has contributed to rising NPAs GNPA ratio higher for priority sector than non-priority sector However, considering restructured accounts and write offs, asset quality worse for the non-priority sector Priority sector Non Priority sector 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 GNPA Ratio (GNPA + restructured standard advances) ratio Impaired assets ratio GNPA Ratio (GNPA + restructured standard advances) ratio Impaired assets ratio P e r
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Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Study Conclusions & Other Issues :
Why high NPA and such poor state of Credit Management? Primitive Information Systems Improvements in information systems were not coincident with increased size of asset portfolio, increasing complexities in credit management
Banks ability to manage the quality of their asset portfolio remained weak given The lack of granular data on slippages, early indications of deterioration in asset quality, segment wise, trends, etc. Banks failed in identifying / arresting the early pre-crisis trends from 2005-06 - in asset quality deterioration GDP slowdown leading to increased NPAs! Recent decline in asset quality coincided with deceleration in GDP growth
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 M a r - 9 6 M a r - 9 7 M a r - 9 8 M a r - 9 9 M a r - 0 0 M a r - 0 1 M a r - 0 2 M a r - 0 3 M a r - 0 4 M a r - 0 5 M a r - 0 6 M a r - 0 7 M a r - 0 8 M a r - 0 9 M a r - 1 0 M a r - 1 1 M a r - 1 2 M a r - 1 3 p e r
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Real GDP growth rate (RHS) Gross Advances growth rate Gross NPAs growth rate Gross NPA ratio (RHS) Higher NPAs only a result of GDP slowdown? 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 45 55 M a r - 0 3 M a r - 0 4 M a r - 0 5 M a r - 0 6 M a r - 0 7 M a r - 0 8 M a r - 0 9 M a r - 1 0 M a r - 1 1 M a r - 1 2 M a r - 1 3 p e r
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Real GDP growth rate (RHS) Slippage growth rate GNPA growth rate Beginnings of deterioration in asset quality started ahead of slowdown in economic growth
Growth rate of GNPAs started rising before the crisis even as the pace of slippages turned sharply positive in 2006-07
Asset quality of PSBs Economic downturn or sub-optimal credit management? Recent increase in NPAs not reflected across all bank groups Though economic downturn faced by all banks
Early threats to asset quality - swiftly and effectively managed by private sector and foreign banks
PSBs suffer from structural deficiencies related to the management and governance arrangements Reflected in lacunae in credit management Pre-dates the crisis, but not dealt with on time, unlike in the case of the FBs and NPBs Lax Credit Management Deficiencies in credit management crept in during the pre-crisis good years In general, banks with high credit growth in 2004-08 ended up with higher NPA growth in 2008-13 The appraisal process failed to differentiate between promoters debt and equity Promoters equity contribution declined / leverage higher Credit monitoring was neglected Recovery efforts slowed Legal infrastructure for recovery remained non- supportive Restructuring became rampant OPB NPB PSB FB -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 10 15 20 25 30 35 C A G R
N P A
2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3
CAGR Advances 2003-2008 Increasing incidence of frauds, especially large value frauds in recent years Over 64 % of fraud cases are advances related over 70% in case of large value frauds (over Rs. 50 crore) Poor appraisal and absence of equity has led to larger no. of advance related frauds especially through diversion Moral hazard associated with identifying business failures as frauds Lacunae in credit appraisal not identified Fixation of Staff accountability a casualty Increasing frauds or are they business failures? Advance Related Frauds (>Rs. 1cr) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Cumulative (end Mar13) Bank Group No. Amt (in cr.) No. Amt
(in cr.) No. Amt
(in cr.) No. Amt (in cr.) PSBs 201 1820 228 2961 309 6078 1792 14577 OPB 20 289 14 63 12 49 149 767 NPB 18 234 12 75 24 67 363 1068 FB 3 33 19 83 4 16 456 277 Grand Total 242 2376 273 3183 349 6212 2760 16690 Credit appraisal suffered(1) Poor Credit appraisal at the time of sanctioning as also at the time of restruturing Significant increase in indebtedness of large business groups Sample of 10 large corporate groups - credit more than doubled between 2007 and 2013 even while overall debt rose 6 times Credit growth concentrated in segments with higher level of impairment Lending elevated in several sectors where impairments were higher than average 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 p e r
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Borrowings of 10 corporate groups Share in system credit (RHS) Source : Credit Suisse Research Sectors CAGR of credit 2009- 2012 Impaired Assets ratio (March 2013) Iron and Steel 25 17 Infrastructure 33 18 Power 41 18 Telecom 28 16 Aggregate banking sector 19 11 Indian corporates - accessing international markets to raise capital Risk from un-hedged exposures Risk from increase in interest rates Impact could spill-over to lenders
Project risks not taken due cognizance of Contingency planning for large projects
Restructuring extended to large corporates that faced problems of over-leverage and inadequate profitability
Companies with dwindling repayment capacity to repay debt - raising more and more debt from banks ability of corporates to service debt was falling exposure of companies to interest rate risk was rising Credit appraisal suffered(2) Summing up.. High credit growth in select sectors has led to decline in credit quality in subsequent periods High incidence of advance related frauds are an outcome of deficient credit appraisal standards Level of Leverage of corporate borrowers, credit growth, diversion of funds, sub standard assets and fraud cases are highly correlated. They are first order derivative of improper credit and recovery management Assessing the resilience of the banking system Resilience of the banking sector(1) Current NPA levels - not alarming though could pose concern if current trends persist Year All Banks PSBs Old Pvt. Sec. Banks New Pvt. Sec Banks Foreign Banks GNPA Ratio NNPA Ratio GNPA Ratio NNPA Ratio GNPA Ratio NNPA Ratio GNPA Ratio NNPA Ratio GNPA Ratio NNPA Ratio Mar 94 19.07 13.71 21.11 15.44 6.93 3.88 - - 1.46 -0.65 Mar-95 15.31 10.46 17.12 11.98 7.35 4.12 2.21 0.93 1.62 -0.91 Mar-97 14.33 9.50 16.44 11.15 8.29 4.66 2.92 2.51 3.57 1.02 Mar-99 13.34 8.99 14.63 10.17 13.02 7.82 4.55 3.52 5.00 0.86 Mar-01 11.14 6.28 11.99 6.97 11.86 6.71 5.40 3.21 6.69 1.72 Mar-03 8.81 4.42 9.36 4.54 8.86 5.41 7.50 4.67 5.34 1.76 Mar-05 4.94 1.96 5.38 2.07 5.97 2.72 2.93 1.53 3.01 0.87 Stress testing reveals resilience of banking system due to strong capital position June 2013 CRAR Core CRAR GNPA Ratio Losses as % of Capital Baseline 13.4 9.7 4.0 - NPA increases by 50% 11.5 8.0 5.9 15.4 NPA increases by 100% 10.6 7.0 7.9 23.2 NPA increases by 150% 9.6 6.0 9.9 31.0 30% of restructured advances turn into NPAs (Sub-Standard) 12.1 8.6 5.7 10.4 30% of restructured advances written off (Loss) 11.2 7.6 5.7 18.2 Resilience of the banking sector(2) Provision coverage ratios of Indian banks low by international standards declining in recent times
2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 40 45 50 55 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 p e r
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PCR GNPA ratio (RHS) Resilience of the banking sector(3) Stressed Assets Provision Coverage Ratio Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 PSBs
38.47 29.61 34.29 30.00 27.71 OPBs 33.16 35.40 41.58 33.31 31.11 NPBs 38.91 42.64 63.25 55.52 53.73 FBs 51.58 57.73 81.75 83.44 74.04 All Banks 34.80 30.78 36.25 33.00 30.25 Stressed Assets Provision Coverage Ratio defined as {(Total Provisions (excl. Provision for std adv) + Tech W/Os) to (GNPAs + Rest Std Adv + Tech W/Os)} Provision Coverage Ratio presents a dismal picture when Restructured Standard Advances are also considered Recommendations and Way ahead Recommendations and way ahead Short run Addressing the existing stock of impaired assets NPAs and restructured Time bound revival or recovery Long run Robust risk management Improved information system Facilitating granular analysis of trends in asset quality Improved credit management Credit appraisal and monitoring Facilitative regulatory and legal infrastructure
Short term: Review of NPAs / restructured advances Assess viability of NPA and restructured accounts on case-to-case basis Pre-stipulated time-frame for review/ restructuring Accounts found viable Promoters to assume their share of losses - not resort to further borrowing for equity If need be bring new promoters Burden to be equally shared Restructuring of small accounts - Reorient restructuring towards small customers SMEs, priority sector Accounts found to be un-viable Put under time bound asset recovery banks takeover of units where promoters equity is low sale of assets to ARCs
Improve credit risk management Enhanced Credit Appraisal Group Leverage, Source/ structure of equity capital Complex project structure (as in SPV) External constraints effective contingency planning Keep a check on credit growth and linkage with equity Need for quicker decision making Appraisal, sanction, disbursement - timely and fast More compassion to smaller borrower and increased stringency for larger borrowers Strengthen Credit Monitoring Comprehensive MIS and Early Warning Systems to facilitate regular viability assessment Enforce accountability Accountability on Individuals and all levels of hierarchy Accountability to encompass all aspects of credit management Accountability for delayed decision making / non-action
Improved information systems Information systems the backbone of credit risk management Robust information systems needed Facilitate more intensive data capturing Integrated into decision making, capital planning, business strategies, and reviewing achievements. Enable timely detection of problem accounts, Flag early signs of delinquencies, Facilitate timely information to management on these aspects Coordinating mechanism across departments within a bank and across banks MIS for capturing common exposure across banks
Regulatory framework Need to review the existing regulatory arrangements for asset classification and provisioning Facilitative and practical regulation Restructured accounts to be classified as NPA aligning domestic norms with global best practices The practice of technical write offs of NPAs to be dispensed with Increased provisioning requirements in line with international norms and to ensure resilience of the banking system Uniform approach to regulation either principle or rule based For stability in credit risk management practices To eliminate ad-hoc implementation processes
Reforming legal & institutional structures Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) mechanism Remove existing bias towards large-ticket accounts Ensure viability and promoters stake upfront Independent oversight of large CDR account
Debt Recovery Tribunals (DRTs) & other legal provisions Need for vigorous follow up in the case of suit filed accounts setting up of more DRTs and DRATs
Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) Review and revitalise functioning of ARCs
Credit Information Companies (CICs) Expand use of CICs for credit management
Concluding Thoughts Key Messages ..(1) Present level of stressed asset as an outcome is not a big problem but present processes, systems and structure of creation of stressed assets are a big problem. Existing level of NPAs are manageable but if corrective actions to arrest the slide in NPA are not initiated, the stability of financial system will be at great risk. Gross NPAs are not alarming but the quantum and growth of restructured assets is of great concern Economic slowdown and global meltdown are not the primary reason for creation of stressed assets but the state of credit and recovery administration in the system involving banks, borrowers, policy makers, regulators and legal system have contributed significantly to the present state of affairs. Key Messages .(2) Credit quality has a high positive correlation with the prudential norms and regulations prescribed by RBI Laxity, soft and flip-flop approach to regulatory and prudential norms have contributed significantly to creation of NPAs and stressed assets in the system Level of Leverage of corporate borrowers, credit growth, diversion of funds, sub standard assets and fraud cases are highly correlated. They are first order derivative of improper credit appraisal in determining appropriate structure of debt and equity both in terms of quantity and quality. Overall standard and quality of credit management and recovery management is very poor. Less than 20% of NPAs are upgraded Reduction of NPAs is less than slippages About 50% reduction in NPA is through write-off Key Messages .(3) Banks following the process of recognizing NPAs quickly and more aggressively are having better control over NPAs. Appraisal standards are lax for bigger loans both at the time of sanction as also restructuring while appraisal rules are very stringent for smaller borrowers Restructuring and write off processes are highly biased towards bigger loans as compared to smaller loans. Credit risk for small borrowers is lower than that for bigger borrowers Credit risk in priority sector is less than in the non-priority sector High pace of credit growth has resulted in lower credit quality in subsequent periods
Measures .(1) Credit Appraisal needs to be strengthened with focus on: Quantum of equity brought in by the promoters Sources of Equity Contingency Planning in respect of infrastructure projects Improve appraisal and approval process for restructuring proposals Benefits of restructuring to be also extended to smaller borrowers CDR Mechanism grossly misutilised and needs a thorough overhaul Need for an oversight structure for dealing with restructuring of large ticket advances Independent body to oversee CDR mechanism Measures ..(2) Restructuring and Technical Write-off as a prudential measure should be eased out by the regulator Existing NPAs need careful examination for determining rehabilitation or recovery Conduct viability study Quick rehabilitation with support from both the bank and the borrower Those who put spoke needs to be sufficiently dis- incentivized Bring new promoter if the existing promoter unable to bring new equity Restructuring decision should be left to the bank Quick and determined action is the need of the hour ! Thank you