Dr.

Pham Huynh Tram

Department of ISE
phtram@hcmiu.edu.vn
Review of basic probability & statistics
- Probability
- Types of data
- Describing data
Stabilizing and improving a process with control
charts
- Needs of control chart
- Structure of control chart
- Rules of identifying out-of-control point
- Possible mistakes un using control chart

Example: a bin contains 4000 screws; 2000 are good and
2000 are defective

What is the probability of drawing a defective screw?
- Classical probability
- Relative frequency probability
- Difference?
Sub-
group
No. of
defective
Fraction of
defective
Cummulative
no. of
defective
Cummulative
no. of screw
Cummulative
of fraction
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Subgroup size :50
Pupose of collecting data?
Attribute data
- Classificaion of items into categories. Eg.: grade A, B, C
- Counts of the number of items in a given category or a
proportion in a given category
- Counts of the number of occurrences per unit. Eg.: no. of
defects per batch, no. of sales per month
Variables (measurment) data
- Measurement of a characteristic. Eg.: length of time to
resolve customer complaint, weights of boxes of detergent
- Computation of Numerical Value from two or more
measurements of variables data. Eg.: computation of a
rectangular containe, km per litre for each truck
For frequency distribution
Tabular displays
Graphical displays
- Histogram (variable data)
- Bar chart (attribute data)
- Ogive
- Run chart


The number of intervals
influences the pattern, shape, or spread
of your Histogram.
The width of the bar chart has no
significance
Run chart
Measures of central tendency:
Mean, median, mode, proportion

Measures of variability
Range, Standard diviation

Measures of shape
Skewness, kurtosis
Mode = 16
The mode is the most frequently occurring value. It is the value
with the highest frequency.
Given a data set:
9, 10, 6, 12, 16, 14, 19, 20, 14, 15, 22, 24, 13, 16, 17, 5, 17, 18,
19, 18, 16, 22
The mean of a set of observations is their
average - the sum of the observed values divided
by the number of observations.
Population Mean
Sample Mean
=
=

x
N
i
N
1
x
x
n
i
n
=
=

1
Range
Difference between maximum and minimum values
Variance
Mean
*
squared deviation from the mean
Standard Deviation
Square root of the variance
-
Definitions of population variance and sample variance differ slightly.
Population Variance Sample Variance
( )
N
N
x
x
N
x
N
i
N
i
N
i
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
|
.
|

\
|

=
=
=

o
2
o o =
( )
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
2

|
.
|

\
|

=
=
=
n
n
x
x
n
x x
s
n
i
n
i
n
i
2
s s=
Find the sample mean and sample variance for
the following series of data:
Value
21
12
34
22
17
18
43
28
56
34
12
Practice with Calculator !!
Skewness
Measure of asymmetry of a frequency distribution
Skewed to left
Symmetric or unskewed
Skewed to right
Kurtosis
Measure of flatness or peakedness of a frequency
distribution
Platykurtic (relatively flat)
Mesokurtic (normal)
Leptokurtic (relatively peaked)
Skewed to left
6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0
3 0
2 0
1 0
0
x
F

r
e

q

u
e

n
c

y

Mean < median < mode
Mean = median = mode
6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0
x
3 0
2 0
1 0
0
F

r
e

q

u
e

n
c

y

Symmetric
Mode < median < mean
6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0
x
3 0
2 0
1 0
0
F

r
e

q

u
e

n
c

y

Skewed to right
3 . 7 2 . 9 2 . 1 1 . 3 0 . 5 - 0 . 3 - 1 . 1 - 1 . 9 - 2 . 7 - 3 . 5
7 0 0
6 0 0
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
1 0 0
0
X
F

r
e

q

u

e

n

c

y

Platykurtic - flat distribution
4 3 2 1 0 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
5 0 0
4 0 0
3 0 0
2 0 0
1 0 0
0
X
F

r
e

q

u

e

n

c

y

Mesokurtic - not too flat and not too peaked
Leptokurtic - peaked distribution
1 0 0 - 1 0
2 0 0 0
1 0 0 0
0
Y
F

r
e

q

u

e

n

c

y

Normal distribution
Calculate probability
Skewed distribution
Unknown distribution
K = 1

K=2


K=3
6826 . 0 ) 1 1 ( = + < < o o X P
9544 . 0 ) 2 2 ( = + < < o o X P
9973 . 0 ) 3 3 ( = + < < o o X P
1
1
2
1
1
4
3
4
75%
1
1
3
1
1
9
8
9
89%
1
1
4
1
1
16
15
16
94%
2
2
2
= = =
= = =
= = =
At least of the elements of any distribution
lie within k standard deviations of the mean
|
.
|

\
|

2
1
1
k
At
least
Lie
within
Standard
deviations
of the mean
2



3


4
Control charts are constructed by drawing samples and
taking measurements of a process characteristics. Each set
of measurements is called a subgroup
Control charts help to
- identify and differentiate between common causes and
special causes of variation
- determine a processs capability
Process is stable if it only exhibits common cause variation
When a process is stable, continuous improvement helps to
bring the centerline of the process closer to a desired level
(nominal) by reducing the magnitude of common cause
variations
-Centerline: drawn at the average value of all the plotted data.

-Control Limits (UCL, LCL): set at a distance of 3 sigma above and 3
sigma below the centerline. They indicate variation from the centerline
* Difference between control limits and specification limits?
27
29
30
31
32

Rule 5: 8 or more successive values continually increase
or decrease

Rule 6: unusual small number of runs above and below
center line are present ( a sawtooth pattern)

Rule 7: 13 consecutive points fall in zone C
Over adjustment
Process should be adjusted not on the basis of time-to-
time observations, but on the basis of information
provided by a statistical control chart
Funnel experiment
Under adjustment
Lack of attention when the process is out of control and
no effort is made to provide neccesary regulation

*Also, becareful on false out-of control signal

Defect prevention: atribute chart
P chart, mp chart, c chart, u chart
Continuous improvement: variable control chart
X bar chart, R chart, MR chart, s chart