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Bathtub curve

Bathtub curve
Reliability specialists often describe the
lifetime of a population of products using a
graphical representation called the bathtub
curve

Bathtub curve
three parts
The first part is a decreasing failure rate,
known as early failures.
The second part is a constant failure rate,
known as random failures.
The third part is an increasing failure rate,
known as wear-out failures.
name is derived from the cross-sectional shape

three parts (cont)
bathtub curve is generated by mapping
the rate of early "infant mortality" failures
when first introduced,
the rate of random failures with constant
failure rate during its "useful life",
and finally the rate of "wear out" failures as
the product exceeds its design lifetime.
three parts (cont)
bathtub curve does not depict the failure rate
of a single item, but describes the relative
failure rate of an entire population of products
over time.
Some individual units will fail relatively early
(infant mortality failures), others (we hope most)
will last until wear-out, and some will fail during
the relatively long period typically called normal
life.
Failures during infant mortality are highly
undesirable and are always caused by defects
and blunders: material defects, design blunders,
errors in assembly, etc.


three parts (cont)
Normal life failures are normally considered to be
random cases of "stress exceeding strength."
However, as we'll see, many failures often
considered normal life failures are actually infant
mortality failures.
Wear-out is a fact of life due to fatigue or depletion
of materials (such as lubrication depletion in
bearings).
A product's useful life is limited by its shortest-lived
component. A product manufacturer must assure
that all specified materials are adequate to function
through the intended product life

Reliability
Reliability requirements
Reliability requirements address
the system itself,
test and assessment requirements,
associated tasks and documentation.
Reliability requirements are included in the
appropriate system/subsystem requirements
specifications,
test plans, and
contract statements.
System reliability parameters
Requirements are specified using reliability
parameters.
The most common reliability parameter is the
mean-time-between-failure (MTBF), which can
also be specified as the failure rate or the
number of failures during a given period.
These parameters are very useful for systems
that are operated on a regular basis, such as
most vehicles, machinery, and electronic
equipment.
Reliability increases as the MTBF increases.
The MTBF is usually specified in hours, but can
also be used with other units of measurement
such as miles or cycles.
reliability parameters (cont)
In other cases, reliability is specified as the
probability of mission success.
For example, reliability of a scheduled aircraft
flight can be specified as a dimensionless
probability or a percentage.
A special case of mission success is the single-
shot device or system. These are devices or
systems that remain relatively dormant and only
operate once. Examples include automobile
airbags, missiles.
For such systems, the probability of failure on
demand (PFD) is the reliability measure.
reliability parameters (cont)
This PFD is derived from failure rate and
mission time for non-repairable
systems.
For repairable systems, it is obtained
from failure rate and MTTR and test
interval.

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