PEAK OIL

(and the unfolding energy crisis)

-What is Peak Oil?
-What are the consequences?
-What can we do about it?


Fuel Prices - Yesterday, Today,
Tomorrow?
1955
2005
Oil originates from the chemical
decomposition of microorganisms that got
buried under geologic formations in the sea
millions of years ago.
In some cases
the sea retreated,
which explains
why oil is also
found on land.

-Oil was a gift from
nature.
-It took millions of
years to produce
-When its gone, its
gone forever

Before the first oil well was dug in
Pennsylvania in 1859, Nature had
made about two trillion barrels of
recoverable oil and scattered it
unevenly around the world.

By 2006 weve used up about 0.96
trillion. In other words were near
the half-way point.
Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth S. Deffeyes
An oil well isnt like a cars fuel
tank.
With a car you can drive at
full speed until the moment
you run out of fuel.

Thats because your tank is a
hollow cavity. The fuel fills
the bottom of the tank and
theres nothing preventing it
from being pumped out.

But an oil well isnt a hollow
cavity.
Its a large deposit of stones or
sandstone sandwiched between
two layers of impervious rock.
The hollow spaces between the
stones or sand are filled with
thick and viscous oil.

A pipe is lowered into the
mixture of oil and stones or sand
and the oil is pumped up.
It takes time for oil to ooze from
zones of high pressure to the zone
of low pressure near the pipe.
Click
In order to extract the oil from an oil
field, a large number of wells are drilled.
An oil field empties
rapidly at the start and
yields lots of oil.
Then the flow
slows down
gradually.
Towards the end
the flow eases to
a trickle.
An oil field yields its contents over
the years, something like this.
Mid point
2
nd
half
When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil
fields, it approximates a bell curve
Top of the curve
1
st
half
and from then on, oil production
will decline year after year
The top of the bell
curve is what
petroleum experts
refer to as the oil
peak or peak oil.
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
Remember that weve used up almost half of the worlds
oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we
embark upon the decline.
The Hubbert Peak
In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models,
predicted that the oil extraction for the US lower
48 states would peak in 1970

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/
Many oil fields,
countries, and oil
companies have
already peaked.
The US peaked in
1970.
53 of 68 oil
producing
countries are in
decline.
Oil discoveries in the US peaked
- then 40 years later production peaked
Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000
The US lower 48 states
If the world follows the US pattern:
Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist
the world would peak soon
There Are No More Giant Oil
Fields Being Discovered
In spite of advanced
exploration
technology we are
finding smaller and
smaller oil fields
for each
barrel of oil
that is being
discovered
Were
consuming 4
barrels
The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg
Energy Return
On Energy Invested
It refers to the ratio of:
The amount
of energy spent on
getting the fuel:

exploration,
drilling, pumping,
transportation and
refining
The amount of
energy in the
fuel:

Either gasoline,
diesel,
kerosene, etc.
AND
(EROEI)
The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg
Energy Return On Energy Invested
Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1

In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1

Now (2005) its about 10 to 1

The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1

The Partys Over, Richard Heinberg
is diminishing as we resort to going after
the hard-to-get oil:
Exploration doesnt pay anymore
In 2003 oil companies
spent $8 billion on
exploration and
discovered $4 billion in
new reserves.*
* Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005
** John S. Herold consulting firm
Since 2000, the cost
of finding and
developing new
sources of oil has
risen about 15%
annually.
Theres no more spare capacity
in the world supply
Adapted from The Oil Age is Over, Matt Savinar
Spare capacity =
how much extra oil
can be produced
within 30 days
notice and
maintained for 90
days
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1985 1990 2003 2004
SPARE OIL
PRODUCTION
CAPACITY
Abu Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Neutral Saudi Venezuela
Year Dhabi Zone Arabia
1980 28.0 1.4 58.0 31.0 65 6.1 163 18
1981 29.0 1.4 57.5 30.0 66 6.0 165 18
1982 30.6 1.3 57.0 29.7 65 5.9 165 20
1983 30.5 1.4 55.3 41.0 64 5.7 162 22
1984 30.4 1.4 51.0 43.0 64 5.6 166 25
1985 30.5 1.4 48.5 44.5 90 5.4 169 26
1986 30.0 1.4 47.9 44.1 90 5.4 169 26
1987 31.0 1.4 48.8 47.1 92 5.3 167 25
1988 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 167 56
1989 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.2 170 58
1990 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 92 5.0 258 59
1991 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 95 5.0 258 59
1992 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 258 63
1993 92.2 4.0 92.9 100 94 5.0 259 63
1994 92.2 4.3 89.3 100 94 5.0 259 65
1995 92.2 4.3 88.2 100 94 5.0 259 65
1996 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.0 94 5.0 259 65
1997 92.2 4.0 93.0 112.5 94 5.0 259 72
1998 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 259 73
1999 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 73
2000 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 77
2001 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 78
2002 92.2 4.0 89.7 112.5 94 5.0 261 78
Spurious
OPEC
Reserve
Revisions


Les Magoon, an oil geologist
and scientist emeritus with
the U.S. Geological Survey:

JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October 28, 2004
My feeling is this is the beginning
of the oil peak and the next
administration, whoever it may be,
is going to have to deal with this.
We're not going to run out of oil, it's
just that the demand on a daily
basis will far exceed the ability of
the world to produce oil so the price
is going to go up,"

Mike Bowlin, Chairman and
CEO, ARCO, 1999; Chairman,
American Petroleum Institute:


JOAN LOWY, Scripps Howard News Service, October 28, 2004
Weve embarked on the
beginning of the last days of the
age of oil.

British Petroleum Statistical
Review of World Energy:
18 major oil-producing
countries are now past
their peak production.

Beyond Petroleum
US Vice-President Dick Cheney,
when he was Chairman of
Halliburton, 1999:
By some estimates there will be an
average of two per cent annual growth
in global oil demand over the years
ahead, along with conservatively a
three per cent natural decline in
production from existing reserves. That
means by 2010 we will need on the
order of an additional fifty million
barrels a day.
Saudi saying:
My father rode a
camel.
I drive a car.
My son flies a jet
airplane.
His son will ride a
camel.

PEAK OIL


Part 2
-What are the consequences?

Energy Slaves
Population
First Oil Well
?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Anno Domini
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
s

o
f

P
e
o
p
l
e
OIL (1857)
The life support pie is shrinking:
The foundation of all
agriculture, the soil,
is diminishing in all
parts of the world
Aquifers are being
pumped dry
Forests are
disappearing
Fisheries are
being
decimated
Biodiversity is
being
extinguished
Rivers are
drying up
Farming is an annual artificial catastrophe,
and it requires the equivalent of three or
four tons of TNT per acre for a modern
American farm. Iowa's fields require the
energy of 4,000 Nagasaki bombs every
year.
1

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
1 Richard Manning; The Oil We Eat, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the
growing of the worlds major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.
Fossil Fuel and Agriculture
On average, the food industry uses 10
calories of fossil fuel energy to produce 1
calorie of food.
For pork, its 68 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate.
For beef, its 35 calories for 1 calorie on
your plate.
1
1
Richard Manning; The Oil We Eat, Harpers, 2005.
World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is
expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals
are the world's most important stable nutrient
source and to meet future demand cereal production
will need to double by the year 2020. Production of
other foodstuffs will also have to increase
significantly.Fertilizer, both organic and inorganic,
will have to play a vital role if the food production
necessary to support the increased population is to
be provided.
Fertilizer Association of Ireland


Fertilizer Association of Ireland


This graph
shows that GDP
increases when
oil production
(energy)
increases.

In other words,
economic growth
requires growth
of energy supply.
We will soon reach the point where we
cant pump out enough to keep up with
demand.
Oil is so versatile
The petrochemical industry can refine oil into many
different fuels and products.

Gas
Naphtha
Gasoline
Kerosene
Diesel
Lubricants

http://science.howstuffworks.com
including plastics, textiles,
pharmaceuticals etc..
Tourism only exists because
cheap oil is available
Resource Wars for Oil
I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge
as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the
Caspian." But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is
moved. The only route which makes both political and
economic sense is through Afghanistan

Dick Cheney as CEO Halliburton in 1998
Central Asia pipeline deal signed



December 2002, The BBC
By Ian McWilliam
BBC correspondent in Kabul
An agreement has been signed in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, paving
the way for construction of a gas pipeline from the Central Asian republic
through Afghanistan to Pakistan.
The building of the trans-Afghanistan pipeline has been under discussion
for some years but plans have been held up by Afghanistan's unstable
political situation.

IRAN, NIGERIA, VENEZUELA?????
Saudi envoy urges no U.S. attack on Iran
By David R. Sands
The Washington Times
Published May 31, 2006



WASHINGTON -- A military strike against Iran's suspected
nuclear sites would have "catastrophic" effects on other Persian
Gulf states and on U.S. interests in the region and beyond, Saudi
Arabia's ambassador to Washington warned yesterday.


U.S. ships in Nigeria to protect oil
ABUJ A, Nigeria, J une 1 (UPI ) -- The U.S. presence in the Gulf of Guinea is
said to be a result of the U.S. Navy protecting Nigerian oil plants from
terrorists, Nigeria's The Guardian reported.
A report published in the Nigerian newspaper Wednesday said that the
U.S. Navy was patrolling the Gulf of Guinea, home to Nigeria's biggest
oil field, Bonga Project, to prevent the field from being targeted "by
terrorists and other maritime criminals."

Forbes
Venezuela Adds Troops to Colombian
Border
By FABI OLA SANCHEZ , 06.02.2006, 11:32 PM

Venezuela is beefing up its troop strength
along the Colombian border, negotiating
with Russia to set up arms factories, and
preparing for a possible invasion, the army
commander said Friday.
"We cannot set aside the possibility of a
military invasion on our country," because
its vast oil deposits make it a target, he
said.



THE ENVIRONMENT
Arctic Ice Cap, 1979 vs 2003
World Temperature History
Global warming predictions
are underestimated say
scientists
Ian Sample, science
correspondent
Tuesday May 23, 2006
The Guardian

British efforts to combat climate change
have focused on preventing carbon dioxide
levels rising above 450 parts per million,
equivalent to a rise of 2C. If the world
warms by more than this, many climate
experts believe fragile ecosystems will be
pushed beyond their "tipping point",
triggering runaway global warming.

Atmospheric CO2
PEAK OIL


Part 3
-What can we do about it?

Many solutions in sight

A Depletion Protocol to cut imports to
match depletion rate
New energy saving policies
achievable with little pain
Climate change fears may evaporate
Many technological solutions
not for finding more oil, but for using less
Priorities
-Tackle population growth.
-Impose very high levels of fuel efficiency for cars and
energy efficiency for houses
-Spend less money on roads and more on renewable energy
programmes and DECENT public transport systems
-Grants for domestic electricity generation
-A reasoned debate on the use of nuclear power
-Greater use of arable land for growing crops such as
rapeseed, sugar for ethanol, willow for wood pellets etc.
-Buying locally produced goods where possible
Which Future?
Mad Max
Star Trek
Greenpeace
Thank You