Monthly Market

Watch for
Maricopa
County
An
An overview
overview of
of what
what is
is
happening
in the Maricopa County
real estate market
(using November
November 2009
2009
statistics)

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009
MLS
 Report overview:
This report includes MLS data for the
past 36 months in Maricopa County only
as provided by the FlexMLS system.

Please note that searches fluctuate daily

when running these reports; these figures
were obtained on 12/3/09.

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 Total # of Closed Sales
(36 month overview)
9000

M ay J une
8000 July
A pr
7000 A ugust Sep O ct
M ar No v
6000

5000
De c Feb

4000 Jan

3000

2000

12/ 06 to 11/ 07 12/ 07 to 11/ 08 12/ 08 to 11/ 09

1000

0
De c Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay June J uly A ugust Sep O ct Nov
12/ 06 to 11/ 074 850 4000 4419 5412 5025 5240 4882 4227 3838 2976 3000 2908
12/ 07 to 11/ 082 913 2506 3030 3731 4200 4822 4900 5089 4847 5306 4613 3726
12/ 08 to 11/ 094 759 4069 4718 6554 7445 8093 8235 8008 7028 6969 7147 6657
 Closed Sales Report Analysis:
Sellers:
The November numbers showed a 6.8% decrease in the number of homes
sold over the prior month. This is due in part to the normal seasonality of the
year as well as the decrease in available inventory. We actually expected a
higher spike due to the end of the buyer’s credit; however, with the
extension of this credit, we may not be benefiting from the sense of urgency
that was present earlier in the fall. November had the lowest number of
closed sales since March of this year.

Buyers:
Buyer activity is still higher than in the same month of the prior 2 years,
primarily because of affordability, low interest rates, and incentives. This is a
great time for buyers to be active, as there tends to be less competition for
homes during the holidays. Interest for homes still remains; however, the
decrease in the number of bank-owned properties may have buyers focusing
their attention even more on new builds (not reflected in this market report)
and short sales.

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
REO, Short, and Regular Sales Comparison (November 2009)

Regular
REO/ Bank
SALES
Owned
SALES
2,661 , 40%
2,647 , 40%

SHORT
SALES
1,349 , 20%
 Distressed Sales Analysis:

This has become an even more important part of the market report,
as it shows the percentage of sales that were bank owned/foreclosed,
short sales, and regular sales. This will be an important trend to
watch as we move forward with this market to see if there are any
shifts in the type of homes being sold.

A bank owned/foreclosure home is one that the seller no longer owns

– it has been taken over by the lender(s) who had a note on the
home. Short sales are homes where the seller is negotiating with the
bank to “forgive” a portion of the debt in order to avoid foreclosure.

For the second month in a row, statistics showed a significant

increase in
non-distressed home sales … a 4% increase. Short sales remained at
the same percentage (20%), and bank-owned sales dropped by 4%.
As rumors of
bank-owned properties entering the market after the first of the year
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
play out, this will become even more important to watch.
 12000

Total # of PENDING Sales (36 month overview)

10000
A pr

M ar
M ay
8000 June

July A ugust
Sep
Fe b O ct
6000
Jan
No v

Dec
4000
12/ 06-11/ 07
12/ 07-11/ 08
12/ 08-11/ 09
2000

0
De c Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay June July A ugust Se p O ct No v
12/ 06
-11/ 07 4178 5175 5118 5662 5221 5146 4501 3981 3527 2920 3184 2951
12/ 07-11/ 08 2626 3316 3654 4260 5012 5164 5539 6177 4963 4796 4449 4031
12/ 08-11/ 09 4552 5662 6470 8600 9641 8190 7969 7300 7179 6882 6624 5321
Pending Sales Report Analysis:
Sellers:
Pay attention – November saw a 20% decrease in the number of pending
sales over the prior month. This is the 7th month in a row, that the number of
pending sales has decreased AND is the lowest this number has been since
December of last year. Contributors definitely include the buyer credit
deadline that just passed, shrinking inventory, the seasonality of home
buying, and more homes remaining as Active With Contingency until they
close. Since homes usually take 45-60 days to close after they go pending, it
will be very important to continue to monitor the impact on closed sales over
the next few months!

Buyers:
Buyers have been given a reprieve with the extension and modifications in
the home buyer credit. As a result, this just might be the perfect time to look
for a home – the holidays usually mean less competition, and buyers may be
able to find the home of their dreams before buyer activity picks up again
after the first of the year.
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 Average Sales Price (36 months)
$380,000

$355,000

$330,000

$305,000

$280,000

$255,000
12/ 06-11/ 07
12/ 07- 11/ 08
$230,000 12/ 08-11/ 09
Dec
$205,000
Jan
July Sep Nov
Feb June A ug O ct
$180,000 Apr M ay
M ar

$155,000
Dec J an Feb M ar Apr M ay J une J uly Aug Se p Oct No v
12/ 06-11/ 07 $341,645 $350,605 $343,595 $356,912 $343,389 $361,497 $362,067 $353,711 $354,402 $316,436 $335,146 $335,116
12/ 07-11/ 08 $328,813 $329,909 $307,045 $310,472 $293,464 $284,632 $278,957 $261,238 $247,587 $227,672 $222,284 $216,819
12/ 08-11/ 09 $202,801 $188,174 $178,659 $165,298 $166,355 $169,800 $177,246 $181,038 $176,326 $182,231 $177,512 $181,895
 Average Sales Price
Analysis
Sellers:
November saw an increase in the average sales price of 2.4%! This is good
news as we enter the holiday season and finish off the first round of buyer
credits. November traditionally does see a drop in average sales price, so
there is no doubt that the buyer incentive and affordability are continuing
factors in sales prices.

Buyers:
Buyers need to continue to monitor this statistic, as it shows how much home
they are getting. We hit our 36-month lows in March and April of this year –
since that time, the prices have steadily increased – buyers are paying
on average 10% more for homes now than they did in the spring of this year.
Continue to watch this as we go into 2010 with the increased incentives
and likelihood of more bank-owned properties entering the market.

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 Average Days on M arket (sales)
150

140

130 M ar
Feb A pr
M ay
120 J une
Jan
July
110 Dec

100 A ug
12/ 06
-11/ 07
Sep
O ct Nov
90 12/ 07
-11/ 08

80 12/ 08
-11/ 09

70

60
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June July A ug Sep O ct Nov
12/ 06
-11/ 07 97 105 112 106 104 104 104 111 112 113 120 119
12/ 07
-11/ 08 127 137 139 132 135 129 134 125 115 104 105 113
12/ 08
-11/ 09 109 116 125 129 125 123 119 112 101 95 92 92
 Average Days on Market
Analysis
Sellers:
Statistics showed that the average days on market for homes that sold in
November stayed the same as in October – 92 days. Considering how many
short sales are
on the market, this is still a very impressive number and remains tied for the
lowest number days in the entire 36 month reporting period. Remember,
however, that there are still thousands of foreclosure properties that have been
“on hold” with the
economic restructuring … we are still waiting to see when and how those
properties will be introduced to the market and what impact those properties will
have. For sellers who need to sell in this market, it is more important than ever to
remain competitive and take advantage of the current buyer activity in the
marketplace.

Buyers:
Buyers need to be aware of this number because it is an indicator of how long
sellers are having to wait to go under contract and close. The higher the number,
Provided
the more by Keller Williams
control aRealty
buyer Professional
normally Partners
has. – Statistics
As this from Novemberdrops,
number 2009 MLSas it has in the last

2 months, buyers need to understand that competition for great homes will
 Average List to Sales Price Ratio
98.00%

Sep

97.00% O ct
A ug Nov

J uly
June
96.00%

M ay
A pr
95.00% Dec
12/ 06 to 11/ 07

Feb 12/ 07 to 11/ 08

M ar
Jan 12/ 08 to 11/ 09
94.00%

93.00%

92.00%
Dec Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay June July A ug Sep O ct Nov
12/ 06 to 11/ 07
96.00%96.00%97.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%96.00%95.00%95.00%
12/ 07 to 11/ 08
94.00%94.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%96.00%96.00%97.00%96.00%95.00%
12/ 08 to 11/ 09
95.00%94.10%94.40%94.28%95.18%95.50%96.20%96.40%96.87%97.45%97.08%96.80%
 List to Sale Price Ratio
Analysis
Sellers:
After seeing several months of a rises in the list to sales price ratio, November saw a
drop of nearly .3% over the prior month. This means that sellers are getting 3.2%
LESS for their home than the listed price. This could mean many things … it could
mean that buyers are having better luck at negotiating the price OR it could be that the
prices of homes more closely mirror the current market. With the decline in bank-
owned properties, we may not be seeing as many “fire sale” prices on homes that
raised this ratio in the year.

Buyers:
Buyers need to pay attention. Although the average is less than 100%, on lower
priced/highly desirable properties buyers may still have to pay above list price. Since a
home must appraise in order to obtain a loan, underwriters are looking very closely at
prices and making sure that homes are selling at or below market value. Make sure
your real estate professional helps you understand the competitiveness of the list price
of the home you are wanting to purchase. You also need to be aware of the interest
and sales activity in the area where you are wanting to buy and how the offer you are
making competes with the market AND with the trend toward higher sales prices.
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 M onthly Expireds & Cancelled Listings
10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000
J an
M ar
6,000 Feb
A pr 12/ 06 to 11/ 07
Dec
5,000 M ay June 12/ 07 to 11/ 08
12/ 08 to 11/ 09
4,000 July
A ug Sep O ct
Nov
3,000

2,000

1,000

-
De c Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay June J uly A ug Sep O ct No v
12/ 06 to 11/ 07
7,414 5,961 5,690 6,412 6,650 7,368 7,924 7,635 8,345 8,267 8,891 7,826
12/ 07 to 11/ 08
9,224 7,924 6,511 7,357 7,657 7,546 7,707 7,193 7,247 7,291 7,179 6,252
12/ 08 to 11/ 09
5,221 6,517 6,062 6,342 5,441 5,006 4,899 4,126 3,596 3,601 3,564 3,361
 Expired & Cancelled Listings
Analysis

Sellers:
The number of expired and cancelled listings dropped 5.7% in November over
the prior month. We continue to see more and more homes staying on the
market AND selling. This means more competition for sellers AND is an indicator
that,
at many price points, homes are selling.

Buyers:
For buyers, this statistic is a good one, because it means a few more homes are
remaining on the market. However, with the shrinking inventory and increased
sales, this is also a reflection that fewer homes are leaving the market because
sellers are having more success. Continue to watch this trend, as this, combined
with price, days on market, and list to sales price ratio are an important indicator
of what buyers need to do in order to be successful in closing on the home of their
dreams.

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 INVENTORY OVERVIEW
Following is an overview of
what is happening with the
inventory of homes
currently available in
Maricopa County and the
MLS.
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 New listings by month
15

14

Thousand
13
M ar
12

Jan O ct
11 Feb
J une July Aug Sep
Dec
10

A pr M ay Nov
9

6 12/ 06- 11/ 07 12/ 07-11/ 08 12/ 08- 11/ 09

5
Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay J une July A ug Sep O ct Nov
12/ 06-11/ 07 7587 14137 12203 14693 13417 13012 12501 12108 12882 11339 12503 10203
12/ 07-11/ 08 7832 14115 11469 11864 12010 11334 11845 11831 11872 12412 12682 10728
12/ 08-11/ 09 10217 11195 10915 12375 9346 9336 10674 10804 10666 10673 11247 9315
 New Listings Analysis

Sellers:
November saw a 17.2% decrease in new listings entering the market.
This is the lowest figure since December of 2008. The reduction in the
number of bank-owned properties is no doubt a factor as well as the
normal drop off that happens in November due to our seasonality in our
market. Sellers need to be prepared to see what impact the pending
bank-owned properties will have on the market and their ability to sell
their homes this month and as we enter 2010.

Buyers:
This is not good news for buyers, as it means fewer choices which could
also result in more competition for homes that are available. It is very
important that you continue to spend time with and listen to your real
estate professional to develop your strategy for succeeding in a market
that is constantly changing.

Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 Active Listings in ARM LS (36 month
--Residential
Summary in ARM LS)
65,000

60,000
De c

Jan
55,000 Feb
M ar

50,000
A
xisT
tle

45,000

A pr
40,000

35,000 M ay Nov
O ct
J un A ug Sep
Jul

30,000
Dec Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Se p O ct Nov
12/ 06 to 11/ 07
48,820 51,387 52,581 53,656 54,997 57,516 57,516 57,575 58,837 59,592 60,535 60,614
12/ 07 to 11/ 08
58,608 56,995 59,495 59,954 60,227 57,342 57,342 56,005 55,400 55,323 56,561 57,264
12/ 08 to 11/ 09
57,350 55,247 53,313 51,679 39,286 34,195 32,010 31,375 31,591 31,962 32,658 33,962
 Active Listings Analysis

Sellers:
The MLS saw another increase in the number of active listings in October …
an increase of 4% over October. With 33,962 residential homes on the
market
in the MLS, there are still choices for buyers. Compared to December of last
year
when there were 57,350 homes on the market, sellers have the potential to
be in a much better position when they are looking for the perfect buyer.
As the projected waive of bank-owned properties enters the market after
the first of the year, this will be another important statistic to monitor.

Buyers:
Buyers should be happy about this number, as it means more choices!
We have had a steady increase in inventory of active homes
since July of this year.
Continue to monitor this, as it directly impacts the price you offer
on a home as well as the terms you are able to negotiate in a contract.
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 M onths of Inventory (36 month history)
25.00

20.00

15.00 De c

No v
Jan
12/ 06 to 11/ 07

10.00 12/ 07 to 11/ 08

Feb 12/ 08 to 11/ 09

M ar O ct
Jul A ug Sep
A pr M ay Jun
5.00

0.00
Nov Dec Jan Fe b M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Se p O ct
12/ 06 to 11/ 07
10.07 12.85 11.90 9.91 10.94 10.82 11.78 13.62 15.33 20.02 20.18 20.84
12/ 07 to 11/ 08
20.12 22.74 19.64 16.07 14.34 12.27 11.70 11.01 11.43 10.43 12.26 15.37
12/ 08 to 11/ 09
12.05 13.58 11.30 7.89 5.28 4.23 3.89 3.92 4.50 4.59 4.57 5.10
 Months of Inventory
Analysis:
(This report has been generated by taking the number of
active listings and dividing it by SALES for the past month)

Sellers:
November numbers showed an increase to 5.1 months of inventory.
This is up from 4.57 months in October, but well below the high of
22.74 months we had in December of 2007. It will be very important
for you and your real estate professional to monitor this number so
that you can make sure your home is priced accordingly.

Buyers:
Buyers will want to continue to monitor this, as 5 or fewer months
inventory normally indicate a seller’s market, giving more control to
the sellers than the buyers. However, the type of market will vary
from price range to price range and even area to area. Work with
your real estate professional to make sure you understand the type
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional Partners – Statistics from November 2009 MLS
of market you are in.
 Total Market Overview:
Sellers:
This report provides a detailed breakdown of homes in Maricopa
County
based on price … by determining the price range where your home
SHOULD sell, you can see what the average list to sales price ratio is,
the average days on market, and more importantly, the percentage
of
homes selling in that price range. Note that as the price increases,
so does the days on market AND the list to sales price ratio
decreases.
You will also see a lower percentage of homes selling as the price
increases.

Buyers:
By reviewing the price range where you are purchasing, you can
determine what the average home is selling for vs. list price. This
should help you make better and more acceptable offers based on
the
Provided by Keller Williams Realty Professional current
Partners market.
– Statistics from November 2009 MLS
 IMPORTANT INFORMATION:
Although these reports are beneficial in
understanding the general market in Maricopa
County, it is essential that you meet with
your real estate professional to study these
same figures in your area, as statistics will
vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.

As you make decisions related to the

purchase or sale of a home, it is important
that you understand how the current real
estate trends will impact your decisions. Your
real estate professional is available to help
you monitor and interpret them to make sure
that you are taking advantage of the current
market whether you are selling OR buying.