Poverty Mapping Activities and

Lessons Learned in Vietnam

Dr. Dang Kim Son, from ICARD, MARD
Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Que, from ICARD, MARD
Mr. Do Anh Kiem, from GSO
Mr. Nguyen Viet Cuong, from NEU
Geographic targeting methods in Vietnam
Poverty mapping methodology
Impact and use
Lessons learned
Presentation Content
Geographic targeting methods in Vietnam
Poverty indicators of MOLISA, and CEMMA at
commune level:
Data on commune-level poverty indicators are
collected using local reporting systems.
Poor communes are defined using various criteria,
however, some not consistent over time and space,
some hard to determine accurately.
Identification of poor commune is not objective;
poverty might be under or over-reported due to
various incentives.
Geographic targeting methods in Vietnam
1998 - Nicholas Minot (IFPRI) used 1993 VLSS and
1994 Agricultural Census to estimate district poverty
rates.
2000 - Nicholas Minot and Bob Baulch (IDS,
University of Sussex) used 1998 VLSS and 3%
sample of 1999 Census to estimate provincial
poverty rates.
2002/2003 - Nicholas Minot and Bob Baulch used
1998 VLSS and 33% sample of 1999 Census to
estimate district poverty rates.
Poverty Map in 1998
Rural district poverty rates are estimated by
Nicholas Minot.
Data used:
Vietnam living standard survey 1993: covers 4800
households, of which there are 3840 rural ones.
Agricultural census 1994: rural-district-level data on
some variables.
Poverty Map in 1998: Methodology
Firstly, Probit model used to estimate a rural
households probability of being poor using 1993
VLSS data:
Pr(Y<Z)=( X+ e)
Y: is per capita consumption.
Z: Poverty line set at the 30th percentile of per capita
consumption of rural households.
X: variables of household characteristics that are
included in both data sets.
Poverty Map in 1998: Methodology (cont.)
Secondly, poverty rate of districts is estimated
based on this regression:
Pd=(^ X
id
)
Pd: poverty rate of districts.
^: estimated parameters.
X
id
: average value of household characteristics in
districts from agricultural census.
No standard error estimated because of no
household-level data.
Poverty Map in 1998: Results
Poverty rates of 543 rural districts are estimated (2
district missing data).
It is shown that poor households are concentrated
in Northern mountainous areas, the western edges
of the North Central Coast, and northern part of the
Central Highlands.


Poverty Map in 2000
Province poverty rates are estimated by Nicholas
Minot and Bob Baulch using the method of
Hentschel et al. (2000).
Data used:
Vietnam living standard survey 1998: covers 6000
households.
Population census 1999: 3% sample of household-
level data of the census.
Poverty Map in 2000: Methodology
Firstly, a logarithm expenditure function is estimated
using 1998 VLSS data:
Ln(Y) = X+ e
Y: is per capita consumption.
X: variables of household characteristics that are
included in both data sets.
e: error term with normal distribution N(0, ).
Poverty Map in 2000: Methodology (cont.)
Secondly, the probability that a household in
population census is poor can be estimated:



^, ^ : estimated parameters and standard
deviation.
Z: poverty line of 1790 thousands VND in 1998.
Poverty rate of a province is the average value of
households poverty probability.


Poverty Map in 2000: Results
Poverty rate of 61 provinces is estimated.
Standard error of poverty estimates is calculated
also.
In addition the difference in poverty rate between
provincial pairs is tested at 5% significance level.
Poverty map in 2002/2003
The availability of household-level data of 33%
census sample allows poverty estimates at district
level.
Project Poverty mapping and market access in
Vietnam funded by New Zealand Embassy with
support and coordination from the World Bank has
been implemented by IFPRI and IDS since 2002.

Poverty map in 2002/2003 (Cont.)
The project objectives:
Produce poverty maps at district level.
Analyze patterns in spatial distribution of poverty.
Develop capacity for poverty mapping in Vietnam.
Disseminate methods and results widely.
Promote collaboration across Ministries.
Strong capacity building: participants from ICARD
(under MARD), GSO, MPI, MOLISA, MOF, IOE,
HAU, NEU in the poverty mapping project.
Poverty map in 2002/2003: Results
District-level poverty rates with standard error are
already estimated by Nicholas Minot and Bob
Baulch. The arrangement of map format and GIS
data is conducted by Michael Epprecht (IFPRI).
Poverty mapping method allows much more
disaggregated estimates than VLSS.
Poverty rates vary considerably within regions and
provinces.
The difference in poverty rate between districts
pairs is tested at 5% significance level.
Poverty map in 2002/2003: Results
The geographic targeting of poverty is more
accurate if the commune-level poverty rates are
estimated.
Commune-level poverty rates are also estimated.
However large standard errors (due to small
number of households) do not allow the poverty
ranking of all communes.

Poverty with 95% confidence intervals for
communes of Khanh Hoa
Confidence intervals of commune-level poverty rate
from smallest to largest
Poverty map in 2002/2003: Results
Besides the headcount index, other indices of depth
and severity of poverty, and indices of inequality are
estimated as well.
Analysis of geographic variables associated with
poverty using GIS data:
Market access.
Agro-climatic variables.
Use and Impact of Poverty Maps
Distribution of poverty mapping results:
Results of poverty map in 1998 and 2000 were
presented to ministries (e.g. MOLISA, MARD, MPI,
GSO), international agencies (e.g. UNDP, FAO, WB,
and ADB), and NGOs (e.g. Oxfam and CARE).
They have been published in various papers e.g.
World Development, the 2001 Vietnam Development
Report, Vietnam Investment Review, in a forthcoming
World Banks Policy Research Working Paper Series.
Use and Impact of Poverty Maps (cont.)
Poverty mapping in 2002/2003 involves more than 30
participants from various ministries, institutes and
universities.
Its initial estimates of district poverty rates are
presented to a workshop in May 2003 with attendants
from ministries e.g. MOLISA, MARD, MPI , and
international agencies e.g. WB, GTZ.
Reports, map posters and CD-ROM of the poverty
mapping in 2002/2003 will be distributed widely from
this October.
Use and Impact of Poverty Maps (cont.)
Use and Impacts:
Although anti-poverty programs use MOLISAs
reports on commune poverty indicators for
geographic targeting, poverty maps in 1998 and 2002
are also employed to crosscheck.
Some international agencies e.g. WB, FAO and
NGOs e.g. CARE, and Oxfam used the maps to help
their targeting programs.
There is increasing recognition of the advantages of
the poverty maps, i.e. objective criteria, scientific and
clear method, and measurable indicators.
Lessons Learned
Involvement of various ministries staff in poverty
mapping helps understand advantages of poverty map.
More disaggregated map increases its use and impact.
Full census household-level data should be provided to
generate the poverty maps.
More questions on income-related characteristics of
household should be added to censuses to improve the
geographic targeting of maps.

References
Henninger, N. and M. Snel (2002). Where are the poor?
Experiences with the development and use of poverty maps: Case
Study Note for Vietnam. Published by World Resources Institute,
Washington, DC Published by World Resources Institute,
Washington, available at http://population.wri.org/
Hentschel, J., J. Lanjouw, P. Lanjouw, and J. Poggi. 2000.
Combining Census and Survey Data to Trace the Spatial
Dimensions of Poverty: A Case Study of Ecuador. The World Bank
Economic Review 14(1):147-65.
Minot, N. 2000. Generating Disaggregated Poverty Maps: An
Application to Vietnam. World Development 28(2):319-31.
Minot, N. and B. Baulch. 2002. The Spatial Distribution of Poverty in
Vietnam and the Potential for Targeting. Markets and Structural
Studies Division. Discussion Paper, International Food Policy
Research Institute.