Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
U
bn
Type B components of uncertainty
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
X
0
X
0
+ s (68.3 %)
X
0
+ 2s (95.5 %)
X
0
+ 3s (99.73 %)
X
0
Mean
S Standard Deviation
Normal Distribution
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
One standard deviation encompasses approximately
68% of possible values of the measurand
For 95% confidence limits coverage factor of 2 is
used Two standard deviations
SPECIFYING THE MEASURAND
1. Any uncertainty analysis must begin with a clear
specification of the measurand
2. In complex tests, it is not necessarily clear what is
being measured and what is influencing the
measurement result.
3. Level of detail in the definition of the measurand
depends on the required level of accuracy of the
measurement.
4. The specification of a measurand may require
statements about quantities such as time,
temperature, and pressure.
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
MODELING THE MEASUREMENT
Sources of uncertainty in measurement
1. incomplete definition of the measurand
2. imperfect realization of the definition of the
measurand
3. nonrepresentative sampling (the sample measured
may not represent the defined measurand)
4. inadequate knowledge of the effects of environmental
conditions on the measurement or imperfect
measurement of environmental conditions
5. personal bias in reading analog instruments, including
the effects of parallax
6. finite resolution or discrimination threshold
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Sources of uncertainty in measurement contd.
7. inexact values of measurement standards and
reference materials
8. inexact values of constants and other parameters
obtained from external sources and used in the data-
reduction algorithm
9. approximations and assumptions incorporated in the
measurement method and procedure
10. variations in repeated observations of the measurand
under apparently identical conditions
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Usually the mathematical model is always incomplete
Relevant input quantities should be varied to the
extent possible so that the uncertainty estimate can be
based, as much as possible, on experimental data
the use of check standards and control charts (often
called measurement assurance) to ensure that the
measurement system is under statistical control,
these data should be used as part of the effort to
obtain a reasonable estimate of the measurement
uncertainty.
When the observed data shows that the mathematical
model is incomplete, then the model should be revised
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
TYPE A EVALUATION OF STANDARD UNCERTAINTY
Type A uncertainty estimate is an estimate derived
from the statistical analysis of experimental data.
Type A does not refer to the nature of the uncertainty
contributor itself
Type A uncertainty estimates are not necessarily
random components of uncertainty
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
It will usually be the case that the best estimate of
the value of a measurand will be the average of
several test results
The experimental standard deviation s characterizes
the variability or spread, of the observed values x
i
It is given by the equation
s = [(x
1
x
0
)
2
+ (x
2
x
0
)
2
+ . (x
n
x
0
)
2
] / (n-1)
It is best to use a calculator or spreadsheet program like Excel
for these calculations
Standard Uncertainty = s/ n
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
TYPE B EVALUATION OF STANDARD UNCERTAINTY
Some uncertainty contributors
cannot be evaluated statistically
else a statistical evaluation would be impractical
a statistical evaluation may simply be unnecessary.
past experience
taken from a handbook,
extracted from a calibration report etc.
In these cases, uncertainty of an influence quantity has
to be estimated based on
Estimates obtained in this way are called type B
estimates.
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
SENSITIVITY COEFFICIENTS
Sensitivity coefficients are essentially conversion
factors that allow one to convert the units of an
input quantity into the units of the measurand.
Sensitivity coefficients are also measures of how
much change is produced in the measurand by
changes in an input quantity.
Mathematically, sensitivity coefficients are obtained
from partial derivatives of the model function f with
respect to the input quantities.
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Combined Uncertainty
Type A Component of uncertainty U
a
Type B Components U
b1
, U
b2
, U
b3 ......
Type B estimate = U
b
= U
b1
2
+ U
b2
2
+ U
b3
2
....
Combined Uncertainty (U
c
) = U
a
2
+ U
b
2
If U
1
, U
2
, U
3
........ are the uncertainty components and
corresponding sensitivity coeficients are C
1
, C
2
, C
3
........
the the combined uncertainty is
U
c
= C
1
U
1
2
+ C
2
U
2
2
+ C
3
U
3
2
....
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Although the combined standard uncertainty can be used
to express the uncertainty of a measurement result, in
many commercial, industrial, or regulatory applications, it
is often necessary to give a measure of uncertainty that
defines an interval about the measurement result that
may be expected to encompass a larger fraction of the
values (95%)
The expanded uncertainty U is obtained by multiplying
the combined standard uncertainty by a coverage factor
k.
U = KU
c
K is chosen from Student t distribution (for df < 30) or
Normal distribution (for df > 30) and confidence level
(95%)
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Reasonability
Every uncertainty estimate should be subjected to a
Reasonability check
Uncertainty estimates that look strange- either too big
or too small- should be re-evaluated
Engineering tolerances
Long experience with the mechanical properties
Look for
Mathematical blunders,
Uncertainty contributors which have been poorly
estimated or completely neglected.
Finally revise the mathematical model if needed
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
UNCERTAINTY BUDGETS
A well-documented uncertainty evaluation contains
Identification and value of each input estimate
Its standard uncertainty
A description of how they were obtained
Degrees of freedom for the standard uncertainty of
each input estimate
How they were obtained
Functional relationship between the measurand and
the input quantities
Sensitivity coefficients
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Uncertainty Budget
Commonly used Distributions
Distribution Coverage factor @
95 % CL
Normal
1.96 (or 2)
Rectangular
3
Triangular
6
U shaped
2
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
SUMMERY OF THE METHOD
1. Specify the measurand
2. Derive the mathematical model
3. Quantify the influence quantities
4. Evaluate the standard uncertainty of each influence
quantity
5. Evaluate sensitivity coefficients and covariances
6. Calculate the measurement result
7. Determine the combined standard uncertainty
8. Determine the expanded uncertainty
9. Report the measurement result and associated
uncertainty estimate
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Example:
Volume of pipette is estimated by weighing water
dispensed by the pipette and dividing by the density of
water, taken from standard tables at the measurement
temperature
v = w/ d
Sensitivity coefficient for weight (C
sw
)
v/ w = 1/d = v/ w
Sensitivity coefficient for density (C
sd
)
v/ d = -w/d
2
= -v/ d
Uncertainty in volume measurement
U
v
= (C
sw
)
2
U
w
2
+ (C
sd
)
2
U
d
2
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
We measure 5 (n = 5) times weights and note
down corresponding temperatures
Weight Temperature
Mean value W
0
T
0
Standard deviation s
w
s
t
Type A component s
w
/ n s
t
/ n
Type B components
1. Calibration U
bw1
U
bt1
2. Resolution U
bw2
U
bt2
Combined U
w
= U
aw
2
+
U
bw1
2
+
U
bw2
2
uncertainty U
t
= U
at
2
+
U
bt1
2
+
U
bt2
2
M
e
a
s
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
U
n
c
e
r
t
a
i
n
t
y
Density of water at T
0
= d
0
from the tables
Uncertainty of density measurement corresponding to
U
t
uncertainty measurement in temperature = U
d
Volume of pipette V
0
= W
0
/ d
0
Uncertainty estimate in volume measurement
U
v
= (C
sw
)
2
U
w
2
+ (C
sd
)
2
U
d
2
Volume of pipette = V
0
+ KU
v
K is the coverage factor = 2 @ 95 % Confidence limits