The Principle of Traffic and

Resource Forecast
2 2

Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

Effect Verification

Traffic Forecast Introduction
Resource Forecast Introduction

3 3
Traffic Forecast is to forecast the future traffic of mobile network, and it is the basis
of consultingplanning and optimization of mobile network.

Huawei Traffic Forecast tool is based on history traffic trend analysis, and provide
accurate traffic prediction result. It satisfies the requirement of efficient network
operation and maintenance.

Generally, the forecast method is based on history data growth trend to forecast the
traffic in the short / mid term, and it is not applicable to the network with frequent
adjustment such as expansion and evolution.



Application Scenario of Traffic Forecast
4 4

Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

Effect Verification

Traffic Forecast Introduction

Resource Forecast Introduction

5 5
Page 5
1. Pre-process Function
History Traffic Data
Burst Weight Analysis
and Extraction
Trend Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Period Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Random Weight
Analysis and Extraction

Burst Weight Prediction
Trend Weight Prediction
Period Weight Prediction
Random Weight Prediction
X(FutDate) = (1+A)
(TrX(FutDate) +
PerX(FutDate) +
RandX(FutDate))
A
TrX(FutDate)
PerX(FutDate)
RandX(FutDate)
Sum all weights
2. Analysis
Function
3. Forecast Function
4. Probability Analysis
Function
Traffic forecast Tool is applicable to GSM radio / UMTS radio / Core Network.
History data can be any scale, such as cell level, cluster level and BSC/RNC/GGSN/SGSN level.
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Design Concept Brief Introduction
Algorithm of traffic forecast include four parts:
Module of history data pre-processing
Module of traffic data analysis
Module of traffic data forecast
Module of probability analysis.

Abstract four components in traffic data analysis and forecast:
Burst component and factor
Trending component and slope
Periodic component
Random component
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History traffic data comes from performance analysis tool, such as OMStar
or PRS. For example,
Data Source
Item UMTS Counter
RRC connections VS.RRC.SuccConnEstab.RNC
CS traffic VS.CSLoad.Erlang.Equiv.RNC
UL R99 PS traffic VS.R99PSLoad.ULThruput.RNC
DL R99 PS traffic VS.R99PSLoad.DLThruput.RNC
HSUPA traffic VS.HSUPAPSLoad.ULThruput.RNC
HSDPA traffic VS.HSDPAPSLoad.DLThruput.RNC
Network registrations VS.RRC.AttConnEstab.Reg
To forecast the traffic of incoming six months to one year, we must input three to
six months history data;
To forecast the traffic of incoming more than one year, we must input six months
to one year data.
8 8

Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

History Data Pre-processing
Traffic Analysis
Traffic Forecast
Probability Analysis

Effect Verification

Traffic Forecast Introduction
Resource Forecast Introduction

9 9
History Data Pre-processing

If the time range of the history data is less than 28days, forecast
wont be processed.
If the continuous missing data is more than 8 days, forecast wont be
processed.
Inserting data processing. For non-continuous data sequence
(<8days), insert the average of two nearby data and get continuous
data sequence.
Judge the abnormal threshold. For example, when history traffic
data of one cell is less than this threshold, this cell will not forecast.

10 10

Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

History Data Pre-processing
Traffic Analysis
Traffic Forecast
Probability Analysis

Effect verification

Traffic Forecast Introduction
Resource Forecast Introduction

11 11
Traffic Analysis

Burst component analysis: burst detecting and regular(monthly, weekly) burst extracting
Trend component analysis: provide linear correlation analysis to the traffic data after picking
out burst component, and extract trend component and slope.
Period component analysis: find out the period from the traffic data after picking out the
burst and trending component, then abstract period component.
Random component analysis: random component is the traffic data after picking out burst ,
trending and periodic component.



1. Pre-process Function
History Traffic Data
Burst Weight Analysis
and Extraction
Trend Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Period Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Random Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Burst Weight Prediction
Trend Weight Prediction
Period Weight Prediction
Random Weight Prediction
X(FutDate) = (1+A)
(TrX(FutDate) +
PerX(FutDate) +
RandX(FutDate))
A
TrX(FutDate)
PerX(FutDate)
RandX(FutDate)
Sum all weights
2. Analysis Function
3. Forecast Function
4. Probability Analysis Function
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Traffic analysis

Burst component analysis

Burst detect: divide whole data into several part, then compare each data to the
average data of the part which it belongs to. If difference is more than a certain
value, this data is burst peak point.

Regular Monthly burst extracting: count the number of certain day with burst in
each month. If the ratio of burst number to total months is more than a certain
percent, store these burst and date.

Regular weekly burst abstracting: count the number of a certain day with burst each
week. If the ratio of burst number to total weeks is more than a certain percent,
store these burst and weekday.



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Traffic analysis

Trend component analysis

For the data sequence with burst component picked out, after dividing the
whole sequence to several parts, linear fit at each part, get slope and
trending component ( y = a + b * t).




14 14
Traffic analysis

Period component analysis

Select the possible period
Try some common periodic value (such as 7/15/30 days) as the possible
period, and use F-test algorithm to verify it.
Otherwise, try from 7days to half of the whole data as the period, and get the
value of F-test algorithm for each setting.
Select the period value of max F-test (or next to max) value as the possible
period.

Extract the periodic component
Divide data sequence to several parts by the possible period and get the
periodic component.



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Traffic analysis

Random component analysis

Random Component is the remaining component after picking out burst, trend and
period component in the traffic data.



16 16

Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

History Data Pre-processing
Traffic Analysis
Traffic Forecast
Probability Analysis

Effect Verification

Traffic Forecast Introduction
Resource Forecast Introduction

17 17
Design Concept
The data of traffic forecasting module comes from the result of traffic analysis, which is burst component,
trending component, period component and random component. We can forecast these four components to
get the whole forecasting result.




1Pre-process Function
History Traffic Data
Burst Weight Analysis
and Extraction
Trend Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Period Weight Analysis
and Extraction

Random Weight
Analysis and
Extraction

Burst Weight Prediction
Trend Weight
Prediction
Period Weight
Prediction
Random Weight
Prediction
X(FutDate) = (1+A)
(TrX(FutDate) +
PerX(FutDate) +
RandX(FutDate))
A
TrX(FutDate)
PerX(FutDate)
RandX(FutDat
e)
Sum all weights
2Analysis Function
3Prediction Function
4Probability Analysis Function
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Traffic Forecast

Trend component forecast

Forecast the future trend slope and trend component by method of periodic
exponential smoothing algorithm
Method of periodic exponential smoothing is a simple method of
gradually decreasing the weight given to an observation as its age
increases. The method has been used in many applications, such as the
forecasting of demands and prices, and the predication of future target
positions in fire control systems.



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Traffic Prediction

Period Component forecasting

Period component in the future is the average of history period components.
Period component can be adjusted by the user growth factor(can be configured) .

Random component forecasting

Use the history random component as the forecasting one, and revise by the
adjusted factor(can be configured).



20 20
Traffic Prediction

Burst component forecasting

According to burst analysis, predict whether the forecasting date will have
burst.

If a burst is predicted, calculate average value of history burst data
sequence which has the same type as forecasting date, burst factor of
forecasting date is this average value multiplied by a logarithm function.

The final forecasting traffic = (1+forecasting burst factor )(forecasting
trending component + forecasting period component +forecasting random
component)



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Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

History Data Pre-processing
Traffic Analysis
Traffic Forecast
Probability Analysis

Effect Verification

Traffic Forecast Introduction
Resource Forecast Introduction

22 22
Probability Analysis

Purpose:
Giving confidence interval of forecasting result under a certain confidence.

Method:
Supposing there is four months history traffic data and the first three months data is
the input data, the last month traffic data will be forecasted with this forecasting
algorithm.
Compare the last month forecasting traffic data to real traffic data, get the relative
difference.
Calculate the confidence interval of forecasting result in a certain confidence.



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Background

Design Concept

Forecast Procedure

Effect Verification (example)

Traffic Forecast Introduction

Resource Forecast Introduction

24 24
Data sourcethere are five months data, and this verification uses the first four months
data as input to forecast the last month data(in red), then compare it with real
date(in blue).
CS traffic
The average difference between CS voice forecasting value and real value is 11%.
TATA RNC301 Verification CS traffic
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Average HSUPA user number in busy hour
The difference between forecasting value and real value of average HSUPA user
number in busy hour
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Average HSDPA user number in busy hour
The difference between the forecasting value and real value of average
HSDPA user number in busy hour is 9%
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HSDPA throughput in busy hour
The difference between forecasting value and real value of HSDPA
throughput in busy hour is 7%.
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Verification result: The ratio of the difference below 10% between
forecasting value and real value of traffic is 80%.
TATA RNC301 Verification - Summarization
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Data source: using five moths data(in blue) from India project, to forecast future six
months data(in red) and confidence interval (cyan-blue, purple)with 95% confidence of
forecasting result.
CS Traffic
CS Traffic is stable
TATA RNC301 Traffic Forecasting
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Average HSUPA user number in busy hour
Average HSUPA user number in busy hour increased rapidly, the user
number will increase 60% after six months.
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Average HSDPA user number in busy hour
Average HSDPA user number in busy hour increased rapidly, and user number
will increase 100% after six months.
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HSDPA throughput in busy hour
HSDPA throughput in busy hour increase rapidly, and will increase 45%
after six months\
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Verification result:
Forecasting results of 4 type of traffic above follow the history rules,
and good convincingness has been proved.
TATA RNC301 Verification -Summary
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Traffic Forecast Introduction

Resource Forecast Introduction

Principle
Example Result of the Algorithm


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Principle of Resource Forecast
Input
Traffic counters :signaling, CS voice, R99 PS,HSUPA ,HSDPA
Resource counters: ULCE / DLCE / RTWP / TCP /OVSF Code / SPU CPU.
Procedure
Set up a function between resource and traffic:
Resource = f(A1*signaling, A2*CS voice traffic, A3*R99 PS traffic, A4*HSUPA
traffic, A5*HSDPA traffic, B);
Note: coefficient A1,A2,A3,A4,A5 are the weight of the corresponding traffic, B is
constant.
Using regression algorithm to find out the correlation between resource and
history traffic ,and get the weight of A1, A2, A3, A4, A5.
Input the result of traffic forecasting to resource forecasting module above, and
you can forecast future resource consumption.



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Traffic Forecast Introduction

Resource forecast Introduction

Principle
Example Result of the Algorithm


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ULCE of Resource Forecast
Data source: traffic and data at a UMTS cell from a operator in shanghai.
Y-coordinate---consumed and predicted ULCE at a cell
X-coordinate----number of samples, each sample correspond to a group of traffic value.

Result: red curve in the following picture is resource consumed value of real history data, blue
curve in the following picture is resource predicted value which is calculated from the model of
self-adapting study according to history data.
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Real value
Prediction value

Y-coordinate ---- consumed and predicted DL CE at a cell
X-coordinate ----number of samples

DLCE of Resource Forecast
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Real value
Prediction value

Y-coordinate ---- received total wideband power (unit: dBm)

X-coordinate ---- number of samples
RTWP of Resource Forecast
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X-coordinate ---- transmit carrier power at a cell (unit: mW)
Y-coordinate ---- number of samples
TCP of Resource Forecast
Real value
Prediction value
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SPU Load of Resource Forecast
Y-coordinate ---- average percentage of consumed and predicted SPU board load
X-coordinate ---- the number of samples.

Real value
Prediction value
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Thank you