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Identify undesirable outcomes Real - speeding Potential - serious injury due to speeding can be multiple undesirable outcomes causes 1. Injury Fall 2. Fall Wet surface 3. Wet surface 4. Leaky valve
Identify undesirable outcomes Real - speeding Potential - serious injury due to speeding can be multiple undesirable outcomes causes 1. Injury Fall 2. Fall Wet surface 3. Wet surface 4. Leaky valve
Identify undesirable outcomes Real - speeding Potential - serious injury due to speeding can be multiple undesirable outcomes causes 1. Injury Fall 2. Fall Wet surface 3. Wet surface 4. Leaky valve
1 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC)
Root Cause Analysis
You arrive at work 45 minutes late because of a flat (investigate what? Why flat or why late to work). Tire has nail in side wall (tire dealer: covered road hazard or foul play?) Neighbors had nails in sidewalls too (Police: who is it?) Teenage prankster caught (parents: why did our child do this?) 2 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) What is Root Cause Analysis Find the Root Cause(s) of events or mishaps Find at least one cause that can be acted upon such that it meets our goals and objectives and is within our control Purpose: prevent future events 3 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Step 1: Problem Definition What is the problem? When did it happen? Where did it happen? What is the significance? NO Who dont place blame (blame = avoidance and silence)
Gano Work backward chronologically from event Work forward chronologically to clarify (Paradies) 4 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Identify undesirable outcomes Real speeding Potential serious injury due to speeding Can be multiple undesirable outcomes: Accident leads to damaged car Accident leads to passenger injury Marx 5 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Step 2: Search for causes Find at least one cause that can be acted upon such that it meets our goals and objectives and is within our control Ignition source Combustible material Oxygen Fire Gano 6 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Cause and effect are same thing Gano Effects caused by Causes 1. Injury Fall 2. Fall Wet surface 3. Wet surface Leaky valve 4. Leaky valve Seal failure 5. Seal failure Not maintained 1 2 3 4 5 A continuum of causes 7 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Cause and effect are same thing Toyota says ask why 5 times If continuum why not more? Keep going until your answer to why is: I dont know (ignorance point marked with ?) I dont care (it fell because of gravity. Why is there gravity? I dont care) Gano 8 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Create a causal tree For each effect ask why? Look for conditions and actions Connect all causes with caused by Support causes with evidence Sensed (1 st hand experienced) Inferred (circumstantial, gauge readings, etc. Intuition (inadequate effort Emotional (how people felt about what happened) Ask whys using depth first search Return to square 1 and start again b e t t e r
Gano 9 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Create a causal tree Find out: What happened What usually happens What policies require to happen * Look for: Human error Procedural violations Mechanical failures Other possible causes Marx * More on these later 10 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Phase 1 Broken Wrist Person Fell Caused By Gano 11 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Phase 2 Broken Wrist Caused By Person Fell Hand Stopped Fall Caused By Etc. Caused By Etc. Gano 12 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Phase 3 Broken Wrist Excess Force Caused By Wrist Position Hand Stopped Fall Employee Overweight Caused By Caused By Etc. Caused By Evidence goes here Evidence goes here Evidence goes here Evidence goes here Evidence goes here Gano 13 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Test the strength of causal links Direct causes A directly causes B every time Probabilistic A increases the likelihood of B Correlation When A happens B seems to also happen Basis for causation uncertain
Marx 14 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Language of human errors Omissions: failed to do something required Mistake: wrong intent, executed as planned Slip: right intent, execution not as planned Lapse: similar to slip 15 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Procedural violations Normal Error At-Risk Behavior Reckless Conduct Intended action No Yes Yes Knew risk of action No No yes Blame-free sounds good, but what about intentional actions. Marx suggests a Just Culture 16 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Mechanical Failures All unanticipated mechanical failures must have a previous cause: Designed in error Manufacturing defect Mis-maintained Mis-operated 17 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Other causal conditions Physical environment Leadership Equipment design Policies Procedures
Individual performance Organizational environment Knowledge, Skills, & abilities communication 18 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Removing non-causal data Failure to act is causal only if there is a pre-existing duty to act. Otherwise it maybe a prevention strategy
A lack of guard rails in the tunnel where Princess Di crashed is often cited as a cause of her death, but French government had no pre-existing duty to install guard rails. 19 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Report Preparation Cause and effect relationships must be clear Dont overstate, understate, or emotionalize report. It may show up in court. Negative descriptors may not be used poorly, inadequate, unsafe, unreliable, and complacency among many others 20 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Report Preparation Eliminate possible biases: Fundamental attribution error: lazy, aggressive, jealous, happy Us-them bias Severity effect (large outcomes require large causes) Temporal & spatial continuity (guilt by association)
21 Cement Technology Course Preparedand originaaly presented by Lafarge UK -June 2001 (EX BCTC) Assignment After the exam read up on the titanic Create a causal tree for the Titanic disaster Report the root causes you found using the guidelines in this presentation A starting place: http://www.educationplanet.com/articles/titanic.html