Presented by:

Shradha pereira.

Nikhil Burboze.

Roshal Lopes
Name of the book: The Black Swan.

Author name: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Penguin Group.

Year of publication: 2007

Number of pages: 444

Book Profile
Core Concept Of Book
A Bird called Black Swan.

It relates to human lives.

Drastic impact on our life.

Highly unpredictable.

Learning from Black Swan.

Do not have high prediction motives.

Best utilization resources.

Attaining organizational objective.

Counted risk should be taken.
Management Learning From Book


Chapter Wise Description


Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical
Skeptic:
The illusion of understanding.
perceivation of different people about the same situation.

Chapter 2 Yevgenias Black Swan:
Experts cannot predict the socioeconomic future, but they
can confidently explain the past.
Chapter 1
Chapter 2


Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute:
Scalable variables (for example, wealth and stock returns.
No scalable variables (for example, human height and
weight)

Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days, or How
Not to Be a Sucker:

The timing and nature of Black Swans are inherently
unpredictable.
Positive Black Swans tend to develop slowly .

Chapter 3
Chapter 4

Chapter 5 Confirmation:















A tendency to look for evidence that supports views.


Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy:
A false sense of understanding.
Stories constructed around Black Swans.
Stories constructed around Black Swans
Chapter 5
Chapter 6

Chapter 7-Living in the Antechamber of hope:
Black Swan deniers seek a steady stream of modestly
positive investment returns, hoping that no negative Black
Swan will intervene.

Huge returns from positive and negative Black Swans.


Chapter Giacomo Casanovas Unfailing Luck: The
Problem of Silent Evidence.

Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Professions involving losses and an extreme survivorship
partiality.

Professions began with an extreme lucky streak
The uncertainty encountered in real life .

Black Swans are events that we do not envision and
for which we cannot assign probabilities.
Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy, or the Uncertainty of
the Nerd
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
The Scandal of Prediction
Human beings are consistently overconfident about
how much they know.

People tend to underestimate (overestimate) severely
the probability of a future.
Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop
Discovery and diffusion of new things depends mostly
on luck, severely limiting predictability.

Even for systems with specified initial conditions and
rules, complexity practically precludes accurate
prediction
Chapter 12
Chapter 11
Epistemocracy a Dream.
People do not naturally learn from the errors
in their past predictions.

There is no difference for practitioners
between inborn.
a
People do not naturally learn from the errors in their
past predictions.

There is no difference for practitioners between
inborn.


Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter, or What Do
You Do if You Cannot Predict?

Do not listen to economic forecasters
History does not reveal its mind to us we need to
guess whats inside of it.

Chapter 14 From Mediocristan to Extremistan,
and Back.
Everything is transitory.

fewer but more severe crises.
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter The Bell Curve, That Great
Intellectual Fraud:
The Gaussian and Mandelbrotian.
A Thought Experiment on Where the Bell
Curve Comes From
Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness:
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Power laws, such as those that describe fractals,
generate distributions that fit empirical scalable variable
data.
Chapter 17 Lockes Madmen, or Bell Curves in
the Wrong Places.
All our statistical tools are obsolete [or]
meaningless.

A theory is like medicine (or government)
Chapter 17
Chapter 16
The Uncertainty of the Phony.
Unlike the uncertainties of games and quantum
physics, the uncertainties of socioeconomic and weather
variables do not on average cancel. We cannot predict
these latter variables
Chapter 19 Half and Half, or How to Get Even with
the Black Swan


Worry less about small failures, more about large,
potentially terminal ones.

Chapter 19
Indian companies where these core
concepts have been applied
26/11 terrorist attack on Taj
HUL's
Godrej Industries
How Black Swan concepts will apply
to St. Johns vision
Institution should concentrate on quality of education.

As our institution is new future planning should be well
counted but predictions should be supported by facts and not
rumors.

Students should be trained in such a way that, when they
enter industry, that should light up the name of institution
with their qualities and knowledge application skills.

Leaving apart the trends of our B schools, St.John should
make their own way towards ultimate success.

Conclusion

Black swan teaches us to be good at facing different situation
in our personal and corporate life.

Management style should be assertive and optimistic.

Should not believe in rumors of future but live for present.

Decision should be risk free but, counted and secure risk
should be involved in it.
THANK YOU