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m
m R R
U R R
Systematic Risk and Betas
The beta coefficient, b, tells us the response of
the stocks return to a systematic risk.
In the CAPM, b measured the responsiveness of
a securitys return to a specific risk factor, the
return on the market portfolio.
) (
) (
2
,
M
M i
i
R
R R Cov
b
We shall now consider many types of systematic risk.
Systematic Risk and Betas
For example, suppose we have identified three
systematic risks on which we want to focus:
1. Inflation
2. GDP growth
3. The dollar-pound spot exchange rate, S($,)
Our model is:
risk ic unsystemat the is
beta rate exchange spot the is
beta GDP the is
beta inflation the is
F F F R R
m R R
S
GDP
I
S S GDP GDP I I
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
Suppose we have made the following
estimates:
1. b
I
= -2.30
2. b
GDP
= 1.50
3. b
S
= 0.50.
Finally, the firm was able to attract a
superstar CEO and this unanticipated
development contributes 1% to the return.
F F F R R
S S GDP GDP I I
% 1
% 1 50 . 0 50 . 1 30 . 2
S GDP I
F F F R R
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
We must decide what surprises took place in the
systematic factors.
If it was the case that the inflation rate was
expected to be by 3%, but in fact was 8%
during the time period, then
F
I
= Surprise in the inflation rate
= actual expected
= 8% - 3%
= 5%
% 1 50 . 0 50 . 1 30 . 2
S GDP I
F F F R R
% 1 50 . 0 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2
S GDP
F F R R
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
If it was the case that the rate of GDP growth
was expected to be 4%, but in fact was
1%, then
F
GDP
= Surprise in the rate of GDP growth
= actual expected
= 1% - 4%
= -3%
% 1 50 . 0 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2
S GDP
F F R R
% 1 50 . 0 %) 3 ( 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2
S
F R R
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
If it was the case that dollar-pound spot
exchange rate, S($,), was expected to
increase by 10%, but in fact remained
stable during the time period, then
F
S
= Surprise in the exchange rate
= actual expected
= 0% - 10%
= -10%
% 1 50 . 0 %) 3 ( 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2
S
F R R
% 1 %) 10 ( 50 . 0 %) 3 ( 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2 R R
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
Finally, if it was the case that the expected
return on the stock was 8%, then
% 1 50 . 0 %) 3 ( 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2
S
F R R
% 12
% 1 %) 10 ( 50 . 0 %) 3 ( 50 . 1 % 5 30 . 2 % 8
R
R
% 8 R
Portfolios and Factor Models
Now let us consider what happens to portfolios of stocks
when each of the stocks follows a one-factor model.
We will create portfolios from a list of N stocks and will
capture the systematic risk with a 1-factor model.
The i
th
stock in the list have returns:
i i
i
i
F R R
Relationship Between the Return on
the Common Factor & Excess Return
Excess
return
The return on the factor F
i
i i
i
i
F R R
If we assume
that there is no
unsystematic
risk, then
i
= 0
Relationship Between the Return on
the Common Factor & Excess Return
Excess
return
The return on the factor F
If we assume
that there is no
unsystematic
risk, then
i
= 0
F R R
i
i
i
Relationship Between the Return on
the Common Factor & Excess Return
Excess
return
The return on the factor F
Different
securities will
have different
betas
0 . 1
B
50 . 0
C
5 . 1
A
N N N N
N
N
P
X F X R X
X F X R X X F X R X R
2 2 2 2
2
2 1 1 1 1
1
1
i i
i
i
F R R
Portfolios and Diversification
The return on any portfolio is determined by
three sets of parameters:
In a large portfolio, the third row of this equation
disappears as the unsystematic risk is diversified away.
N
N P
R X R X R X R
2
2
1
1
1. The weighed average of expected returns.
F X X X
N N
) (
2 2 1 1
2. The weighted average of the betas times the factor.
N N
X X X
2 2 1 1
3. The weighted average of the unsystematic risks.
Portfolios and Diversification
So the return on a diversified portfolio is
determined by two sets of parameters:
1. The weighed average of expected returns.
2. The weighted average of the betas times the
factor F.
F X X X
R X R X R X R
N N
N
N P
) (
2 2 1 1
2
2
1
1