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Eddy Satriya

(esatriya@ekon.go.id, satriyaeddy@gmail.com )
Deputy Assistant for Infrastructure and Regional Development
Coordinating Ministry For Economic Affairs, INDONESIA

2ND Asian Pipeline Conference and Exhibition


“Pipeline Infrastructure for Asia’s Growing Energy Needs
Hotel Istana, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-22 November 2006 1
Persistent Growth Acceleration
Economic Growth

% Change in GDP

> 7%
6-7%
6%
4-5%
Acceleration of economic
growth will need higher
3- 4 %
investment in
infrastructure.

The expansion of the


economy will raise the
commercial viability of
2000-2003 2004-2005 2006 2007 - 2009 2010 - beyond infrastructure investment

Expected
2
Macroeconomic Stability Has Been Achieved
and Continued
Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate (%)

17 %

7%
6.5 % With a stable macro-
economic environment and
sufficient fiscal resources,
3-4 %
the cost of finance will
correspondingly decline and
lengthen – the tenor or
maturity of loan lengthens.
2005 2006 2007 07-09

3
Fiscal Consolidation on Track and
Country Risk on The Declining Path
Budget Deficit Public Debt Ratio
75% % of GDP
Budget Deficit (% 0f GDP) Domestic
60% External
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007*
30%
15%
- 0.9 - 1.1 0%
-1.2 2003 2004 2005 2006
-1.3
Source : MoF 2006
Source: MoF, World Bank staff estimates

Budget deficit has come down considerably Public debt to GDP ratio has been falling fast
since the crisis period and has recently from about 100% GDP in 1999 to below 40%
been contained at around 1 % of GDP. of GDP by the end of 2006 and is likely to
continue falling thereafter.

4
Government Commitment on
Creating Fiscal Space For Infrastructure
Public Investment Infrastructure Expenditures
% of GDP Rp Trillions (in 2000 constant prices)
8
7.1
7 6.5

6 50 43.7
5 4.5
40 31.8 35.0
4
3
2.9 30
2 20
1
10
0
2000 2003 2005 2006 0
Source: BPS, MoF, World Bank staff estimates
2004 2005 2006*
The allocation for development spending as a
rough proxy public investment has since risen
Total amount of such spending for all levels of
noticeably. Total public investment for all levels
government has increased from Rp. 35 trillion in
of government in 2006 is expected to exceed 7%
2005 to Rp 44 trillion in 2006.
of GDP and about the same in 2007.
5
Investment Needs
Infrastructure Annual Investment Needs 2005-2010

Annual
4–5% Funding Gap
7–8% Of (Filled by
of Private Sector)
GDP Government’s ability
GDP has been limited by
Average Central budgetary constraints.
3% and Local
Of GDP Government Current economic
Budget circumstances dictate
Allocation the need to resort to
Average Annual private sector
Investment Needs Source : World Bank 2006, participation
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DESENTRALIZATION
Reform Demands
• Democratization Improving Public Services
• Decentralization
• Good Governance

New Laws 1. Transfer of Power/Governance (UU


22/1999)
• UU No. 32/2004
• UU No. 33/2004 2. Transfer of Financial Authority (UU
25/1999)
Stages:
• Initiation (1999)
Performance is to be improved • Installation
• Various Understanding/Vision • Consolidation
• Legislation process is poor • Stabilization(2007)

Sumber: Satriya, 2005 7


FACTS ABOUT KALIJA PROJECT
 Part of ASEAN Integrated Gas Pipeline (Plan)
 Included in Master Plan of National
Transmission and Distribution of Natural Gas
Network;
 The project was officially offered in
Infrastructure Summit I, Jan 2005;
 Government /BPH Migas has already awarded
contract after “Special Right” open bidding
process (Jun 2006);
 But …debate on “Pipeline or Shipping or
None” goes on;
 While…the country is “starving” for gas 8
NATIONAL VIEWS

 The need to shift from oil to other


alternatives;
 National budget is still supported by oil
and gas revenue, but huge subsidy
“paralyse” other social sectors;
 President SBY declared that gas is for
domestic priority;
 Not to renew LNG contract which are
expire on 2009-2010 (Kompas, 25 March
9
2006);
KALIJA PROJECT: “Sui Generis”
 No clear decision on gas deliverability,
less sense of urgency;
 This project is “pioneeried” firstly by PT.
PGN;
 Protest from region (Bontang City and
part of East Kalimantan Province);
…..but…..
 Acute shortage for gas supply in Java and
other region;
 Regional Development and Industrial
relocation;
 Needed to increase national
competitiveness;
Source: Satriya, Investor Daily, 15 Nov 2006
10
 Therefore…The project is on its own =
Eddy Satriya
• 1989 :Graduated from Bandung Institute of
Technology (Telecommunication Engineering)
• 1997 :Graduated from University of Connecticut
(MA in Economics)
• 1989-90: Program Management Consultancy
(PMC-IV) for Telecommunication Development
• 1990-2005: Working in Bappenas (The National
Development Planning Agency).
• 2005 (Dec)-present: Working in Coordinating
Ministry for Economics Affairs
• 1997- present: Visiting Lecturer in University of
Indonesia, University of Pelita Harapan, and ITB
• 2002-present : Actively writes various article and
column in national papers and magazines.
Recent publications are available on Contact:
www.geocities.com/satriyaeddy satriyaeddy@yahoo.com
eddysatriya.blogsome.com esatriya@ekon.go.id
kolom.pacific.net.id
021.3456714 11
THANK YOU &
GOOD LUCK IN YOU CAREER

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