GEOGRAPHY AS REVISION

Human: Population Change

KEY WORDS
Population Structure; the breakdown of a countrys population into groups defined by age and sex
Death Rate; the number of deaths per thousand population per year. Expressed as deaths per thousand (%)
Birth Rate; the number of life births per thousand population per year. Expressed as births per thousand (%)
Infant Mortality; a measure of the number of infants dying under one year of age, usually expressed as the
number of deaths per thousand live births per year.
Natural Increase/Decrease; the difference between the numbers of births and deaths for every hundred people
per year. Expressed as a percentage.
Dependency Ratio; shows how many young and old people depend on people of working age.
100(
% 15 + % 65
% 15 64
)
Life expectancy; the average age to which the population lives. Expressed in terms of years. Male and female
figures often given separately.
Optimum Population; the population at which the quality of life of the people of a country or a region is the highest
possible, at a given level of technological development.
Overpopulation; when any increase in population reduced the average quality of life of the population.
Under Population; when an increase in population could increase the average quality of life.
KEY WORDS
Famine; a time when there is so little food that many people starve.
Starvation; a state of extreme hunger resulting from lack of essential nutrients over a prolonged period.
Green Belt; an area defined by Act of Parliament which surrounds a conurbation. It is very difficult to obtain
permission for development on a green belt. This acts to stop the sprawl of conurbations.
Studentificiation; large family houses too expensive to run are sold and sub divided and let to students. Nature of
area starts to change (more noise, gardens untended, cars parked on road etc.) Pressures remaining residents to
move out. Area deteriorates.
Gentrification; families buy up run down property and improve it, adding to its value. As more people do this it
attracts a richer population. The whole area may improve.
Conurbation; one large, more of less continuous area created as a city grows and spreads to absorb other cities,
towns and villages in the surround area.
Infilling; the use of open spaces within a conurbation to build new housing or services, often close to where a
green belt restricts outward growth.
Brownfield Sites; sites that have been built on before but that have become available for new building because of
demolition or redundancy of the old buildings.
Social Welfare; the well being of communities. It refers to the access that groups of people or individuals have to
job opportunities, education, an unpolluted environment, a safe environment and freedom to practise ones culture,
religion etc.

POPULATION INDICATORS
Birth rate
Death rate
Fertility rate
Infant mortality rate
Life expectancy
Net migration rate
Differences between the number of immigrants and emigrants
Population density
Number of people per unit area
Natural increase
POPULATION CHANGE THE DTM
DTM Describes how the population of a country changes over time. It gives changes
in birth and death rates and shows that countries pass through five stages of
population change
Advantages;
Universal in concept, therefore can be applied to all countries
Timescales are flexible
Easy to understand
Enables comparisons to be made demographically between countries
Proves helpful to government
Disadvantages;
Eurocentric, assumes that all countries will follow the same progress in terms of socio economic change
Doesnt include the role of governments
Doesnt include the impact of migration
Assumes stage 2 follows industrialisation, but has been seen in many countries to be as a result of imported
medical care, better sanitation etc.
Doesnt account for countries that have slipped back into past stages due to disease
Doesnt have a timescale!
Doesnt include the impact of wars, or natural disasters
POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 1 OF DMT
Period of high birth and death rate
High birth rate;
Limited birth control
High infant mortality rate
Children are future source of income
In many cultures children are a sign of fertility
Some religions encourage large families
High death rate;
High incidence of disease
Poor nutrition and famine
Poor levels of hygiene
Underdeveloped and inadequate health facilities
POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 2 OF DMT
Period of high birth rate and falling death rate
Falling death rate;
Improved public health
Better nutrition
Lower child mortality
Improved medical provision
POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 3 OF DMT
Period of falling birth rate and continuing fall in death rate
Falling birth rate;
Changing socioeconomic conditions, eg greater access to education for
women
Preferences for smaller families
Changing social trends and fashions, and a rise in materialism
Increased personal wealth
Compulsory schooling, making the rearing of children more expensive
Availability of family planning, often government supported
POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 4 OF DMT
Period of fluctuating low birth and death rates

POPULATION STRUCTURES AT STAGE 5 OF DMT
Death rates exceeds birth rate slightly, decline in natural
population (Natural decrease)
Very low birth rate;
Rise in individualism, linked to emancipation of women in the labour
market
Greater financial independence of women
Concern about the impact of increased population on resources
Increase in non traditional lifestyles
Rise in the concept of childlessness
POPULATION STRUCTURES POPULATION
PYRAMIDS
A population pyramid or age-sex structure is a composition of
a population according to age groups and gender.
The vertical axis of a population pyramid has the population in
age bands of 5 years
The horizontal axis shows the number or percentage of males
and females.
The pyramid shows longevity by its height.

POPULATION STRUCTURES- WHAT CAN
POPULATION PYRAMIDS SHOW?
The natural increase in specific groups
The effects of migration
The effects of events like wars, family or disease
An indication of the overall life expectancy of a country
We can calculate the population dependency ratio
HOW MIGRATION AFFECTS THE POPULATION
STRUCTURE OF THE ORIGIN AND DESTINATION
Origin;
Younger age groups migrate leaving behind an ageing population
Males are more likely to migrate causing a contraction on that side of the
pyramid
Birth rates fall and death rates rise
Destination;
Proportions of younger adults increase
Males are more likely to migrate causing an expansion on that side of the
pyramid
Birth rates rise and death rates fall
POPULATION PYRAMIDS AT DIFFERENT STAGES
OF THE DTM
Stage 1
Wide base and concave shape. Low life expectancy and high death rates so there
is a thin area on the top of the pyramid
Stage 2
Wide base and a triangular shape. Higher life expectancy due to lower death rate,
therefore is wider at the top
Stage 3
Thinner base than in stage 1 or 2 and convex shape. Higher life expectancy and
higher numbers of elderly people
Stage 4
Thinner base than in stage 3 and convex shape. Much lower death rate and a
higher life expectancy
Stage 5
Thinner base than in stage 4 and convex shape, but curving inwards at the bottom.
Small natural decrease
MALTHUS
Pessimistic
Population grows at a geometric rate whilst food supply grows at an
arithmetic rate.
He said this would inevitably lead to famine (Natural checks) unless
we limit population growth

Although population grew rapidly, food supply also grew more rapidly
due to
Agricultural revolution, increased efficiency due to machines, selective breeding.
Trade of new agricultural lands, development of British Empire
Emigration and subsequent importation of food
BOSERUP
Optimistic
Increases in population stimulate change in agriculture and therefore
we will never run out of food supplies

Model a little too optimistic
Over farming can lead to the degradation of farmland soils
Might come to a point where no more improvements can be made
Degradation of animal habitats and biodiversity => Affect food webs => Effect
humans
Based on idea of closed society
Many people, foreseeing a food shortage in their country, would migrate
elsewhere.
SIMON
Optimistic
Argued supply of resources is infinite
As a resource runs out, the price increases, so people invest
time and thought into in producing technology that will;
Find more of it
Extract more what is already available
Discover alternative resources
Change the way society is organised to do without that resource

Model focussed more on the economic rather than scientific
stand point

THE CLUB OF ROME
Pessimistic/optimistic
Computer simulation based on future development of the
worlds population.
If the present growth trends in world population,
industrialisation, pollution, food production and resource
depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this
planet will be reach in one hundred years
It is possible to alter these trends and establish a condition of
ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into
the future
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Principles of sustainability agreed in summits like Rio in 1992 and Kyoto
1997:
Environmental
People at heart of concerns regarding development
States have the right to exploit there own environments but not damage those in other states
Laws enacted for liability regarding pollution and compensation
States should pass information about natural disasters and notify neighbours of the foreseen
and accidental consequences of any activities that may cross frontiers
Economic
The right of development must be fulfilled to meet the needs of present and future generations
States should work cooperatively to eliminate poverty
Special needs of LEDCs should be given priority
Unsustainable production and consumption should be eliminated
Appropriate demographic policies should be promoted

NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE
CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS
Effects of Migration Economic
Costs:


Source Area Destination Area
Loss of young adult labour force
Loss of those with skills and
entrepreneurial talents
Cost of educating Migrants
Overdependence in some industries in
migrant labour
Much of the money earned is
repatriated
Increased number of people pressures
resources
NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE
CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS
Effects of Migration Economic
Benefits


Source Area Destination Area
Reduced underemployment
Returning migrants bring new skills
Many migrants send remittances home
There is less pressure on resources
Take up less desirable jobs
Gains skilled labour at reduced cost
Skills gap is qualified by skilled
migrants
Cost of retirement are transferred to
the area of origin
NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE
CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS
Effects of Migration Social
Costs


Source Area Destination Area
More people encouraged to migrate,
detrimental effect on population
structure
Disproportionate number of females
left behind
Non returning migrants cause an
imbalance in population pyramid
Returning retired migrants may impose
a social cost in the community
Dominance of males is reinforced
Aspects of cultural identity are lost
Segregated area of similar ethnic
groups are created and schools are
dominated by migrant children
NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE AND MIGRATION AFFECT THE
CHARACTER OF RURAL AND URBAN AREAS
Effects of Migration Social
Benefits


Source Area Destination Area
Population density is reduced and birth
rate decreases
Returning retired migrants increase
social expectations in the community
Creation of multi ethnic/cultural society
increases the understanding of other
cultures
There is an influx of new and /or
revitalised providers of local services
There is a growth of ethnic retailing
and area associated with ethnic food
outlets.
CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION OUT OF RURAL
AREAS
People left behind are elderly and of limited means
Houses are bought as second homes, creating a ghost town
for most of the year
Deprivation sets in
Sense of isolation takes over in the area
CONSEQUENCES OF EXPANSION OF RURAL
AREAS
Creation of new houses which local people cannot afford
Increased traffic congestion as infrastructure fails to cope
Conflicts between local people and new comers
Maintaining rural identity in an increasingly urban environment
is a key issue
CASE STUDY 1: COUNTRY AT DIFFERENT STAGE
OF DEVELOPMENT - CHINA
Since 1950s experienced great changes in population
Baby booms in 1950-60 increased population from 562 million to over 820 million
Increase in population also caused by rapid falling death rates which created a
population growth of 2.8%
1970, china has of world population, only 7% of arable land
China feared war, disease and famine
1979, one child policy. Regulations that restrict family size and late marriage.
Generally illegal to have more than one child, fined if do
Strongly controlled in urban areas. Rural families allowed two children if first was
female or disabled
Increase in the number of forced abortions and sterilizations
Underpinned by a system of rewards and penalties, vary hugely from area to area
Very successful (Growth rate decrease from 2.8% to 0.628%)
Gender ratio in China a problem, as girls not wanted

CASE STUDY 2: COUNTRY AT DIFFERENT STAGE
OF DEVELOPMENT - FRANCE
End of WW2, population affected by conflict. 40 million people, same as
1840
Government introduced financial incentives to encourage working women to
take time off to have children.
State funded day care, cheap nursery schools and 3 year job protection for mothers
Measurements not enough,
The advantages of having children didnt outweigh the disadvantages for many women
Cost of children too high
Women wanted to return to their careers
Even with the policies, Frances population, now 60.7 million will continue to
age
1/3 of the countries population over 60 by 2050, up from 1/5 now
Immigration wont change this prediction
The increase in fertility rate ( to 1.94) wont change this prediction

CASE STUDY 3: INNER CITY BYKER WARD
East of city centre
Population of 8220
Houses built for people who worked in the port, ship building and engineering
industries that lined the riverside
Houses had poor amenities and by 1960 had fallen into a poor state of repair
House scheme was designed to rehouse many people in the area. Some others were
moved out to new council estates on the edge of the city.
Redevelopment included the high rise Byker wall which shelters many low rise housing areas from noise
Social housing at present
93% people are white
Health is good for 54% of people
2094 people are Level E of social grade (State benefit, unemployed lowest grade
workers)
2820 people have no qualifications
21.26% of the population are between 30 and 44 years old
CASE STUDY 4: SUBURBAN JESMOND WARD
North of city centre
Population of 11849
Houses built for owners and managers of factories and commercial premises and the
clerical workers in better paid jobs in the city centre
Houses were large family houses with space fro several servants. Lower middle
classes has smaller houses or Tyneside flats which were terraces with upstairs and
downstairs flats
Middle of 20
th
century, families unable to run large houses without servants. People
didnt want low wages and restrictions of servant life. Houses nearer city centre taken
by solicitors or dentists. Houses further away let to students
Studentificiation has taken hold of that area
87% are white
Health is good for 78% of people
4240 people are level A/B social grade (higher/intermediate managerial /
administrative / professional)
4657 people are level 4/5 qualifications
28.47% are between 20 and 24


CASE STUDY 5: RURAL SETTLEMENT -
LONGHORSLEY
30 km north of Newcastle
Population of 1495
Was a stopping place for drovers who led cattle down from the hills of
Scotland. In 1950 changed to a successful farming village
There were 3 farms, a number of small holdings and around 500 inhabitants
Has changed into a commuter area. Also used by non agricultural workers
who want to keep horses. Farms have been developed into houses and a
number of large private house have been built on the edge of the village
97% white
Health is good for 74%
422 people are A/B social grade (higher/intermediate managerial /
administrative / professional)
391 people have level 4/5 qualifications
21.77% are between 45 and 59 years old