FAULTY DECISION MAKING IS A

CAUSE OF THE DEEPWATER

HORIZON DISASTER
GROUP MEMBERS
NGUYN HONG NAM
NGUYN THO VN
NGUYN BCH DIP
NGUYN ANH QUYT
NGUYN VIT H
OUTLINE
Summary of Case study
Answers to case questions
Class Q&A
CASE STUDY
Poor decision making a cause for BP PLCs oil spilled in
Gulf of Mexico April 20
th
, 2010
Missed warnings : 20 anomalies in the wells behavior
Worker disagreements : Transocean Ltd. Vs BP employees
the seriousness of the well unstable condition.
Bad decision making : choosing a less costly but much
riskier well design
=>>> 11 deaths, the worst environmental disasters in US
history
CASE QUESTIONS
Q1. WHICH MODEL OF DECISION
MAKING IS REPRESENTED IN THIS
CASE ?
Answer: Simons Normative Model
Proposed by Herbert Simon , explains how decisions actually are made
Bounded Rationality : the constraints that restrict rational decision
making.
=>> In this case : the conflict between workers of Transocean Ltd, and
BPs employees (internal) and the decision in choosing the cheaper well
design (external) reduce rational decision making.
Satisficing : that method of choosing a solutions that meets a
minimum standard of acceptance.
=>> The crew kept drilling as they thought the well blow out might
never happen
Q2. IMPACT OF DECISION MAKING
BIAS.
BP Case Decision Making Bias
Availability Several irregularities of 20 anomalies were already
known
Representativeness Each of the 20 anomalies alone might not be cause for
alarm =>> few of those anomalies had happened but
not dangerous
Confirmation Workers kept compete the well without thorough
notice on the well actual condition
Overconfidence Worker did not take those 20 anomalies as a serious
warning
Hindsight Just after the blow out did the worker see what went
wrong
Escalation of Commitment Choosing the cheaper design knowing it would be
riskier.
=>>> NORMATIVE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING
Q3. HOW COULD EVIDENCE BASED
DECISION MAKING BEEN USED TO
HELP AVOID DISASTER?

Q4. WHAT ARE THE KEY CAUSE OF
THIS DISASTER?
BP was led by the cost reduction policy =>> Choosing the
cheaper and riskier wells design : BAD DECISION MAKING
Transocean underestimated the probability of explosion :
Carelessness
Workers from two companies had a conflict about the
negative test and pressure on work string =>> Framing
each other for not raising alarm : Miscommunication in
group work.
Q5.