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BIBLIOGRAFIA
CAPITULO 13 del Libro de
BrealeyMeyers: Corporate
Gobernance. Mc Graw-Hill.
Podemos predecir cual ser el comportamiento futuro del rendimiento de una accin?
BDS Test
Embedding dimension = 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Epsilon for close points = 1868.477 3736.955 5605.432 7473.909
Standard Normal =
[ 1868.4774 ] [ 3736.9548 ] [ 5605.4321 ] [ 7473.9095 ]
[2]
1050.408 1014.140 415.3918 276.7218
[3]
1942.307 1387.722 464.5635 272.9287
[4]
3922.585 1978.784 527.3705 270.0334
[5]
8609.663 2969.706 616.0980 272.0703
[ 6 ] 20136.524 4657.099 738.4485 278.5209
[ 7 ] 49365.973 7571.997 904.7016 288.8529
[ 8 ] 125375.518 12679.288 1129.4765 302.8120
[ 9 ] 327128.724 21746.412 1433.2779 320.3375
[ 10 ] 871788.224 38033.118 1844.7651 341.5279
p-value =
[ 1868.4774 ] [ 3736.9548 ] [ 5605.4321 ] [ 7473.9095 ]
[2]
0
0
0
0
[3]
0
0
0
0
[4]
0
0
0
0
[5]
0
0
0
0
[6]
0
0
0
0
[7]
0
0
0
0
[8]
0
0
0
0
[9]
0
0
0
0
[ 10 ]
0
0
0
0
Method:
R/S Method
Hurst Exponent:
H beta
0.9378359 0.9378359
Hurst Exponent Diagnostic:
Estimate Std.Err t-value Pr(>|t|)
X 0.9378359 0.02367118 39.61932 4.649424e-36
BDS Test
Embedding dimension = 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Epsilon for close points = 0.0072 0.0144 0.0215 0.0287
Standard Normal =
[ 0.0072 ] [ 0.0144 ] [ 0.0215 ] [ 0.0287 ]
[ 2 ] 18.3150 18.8479 18.4478 17.5362
[ 3 ] 26.8493 26.3033 24.9548 23.6069
[ 4 ] 36.4307 32.9863 29.6281 27.3703
[ 5 ] 47.6006 39.3746 33.5747 30.3699
[ 6 ] 63.2873 46.5236 37.2018 32.8590
[ 7 ] 87.1375 55.5159 40.9551 34.9474
[ 8 ] 120.5902 66.0815 44.7077 36.7364
[ 9 ] 169.9451 79.2480 48.8299 38.5411
[ 10 ] 244.8715 96.2096 53.3319 40.2199
p-value =
[ 0.0072 ] [ 0.0144 ] [ 0.0215 ] [ 0.0287 ]
[2]
0
0
0
0
[3]
0
0
0
0
[4]
0
0
0
0
[5]
0
0
0
0
[6]
0
0
0
0
[7]
0
0
0
0
[8]
0
0
0
0
[9]
0
0
0
0
[ 10 ]
0
0
0
0
Title:
Hurst Exponent from R/S Method
Call:
rsFit(x = dlibex, doplot = T)
Method:
R/S Method
Hurst Exponent:
H beta
0.6464525 0.6464525
IBEX35
1
126
251
376
501
626
751
876
1001
1126
1251
1376
1501
1626
1751
1876
2001
2126
2251
2376
2501
2626
2751
2876
3001
3126
3251
3376
3501
3626
3751
3876
4001
4126
4251
4376
4501
4626
4751
4876
5001
5126
5251
5376
5501
5626
5751
5876
6001
6126
6251
6376
0.15
0.1
0.05
-0.05
-0.1
-0.15
Porcentaje
15%
10%
5%
0%
-0,05
0,00
0,05
DLOGIBEX35
0,10