Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Analysis of Uncertainty
Learning Objectives
Learn to use statistical Excel functions:
average, median, min, max, stdev, var, varp,
standardize, normdist, norminv, normsinv
RAT 9b
Mean
Sample
1
x
n
Population
n
xi
i 1
Excel
=AVERAGE(cellrange)
x
i 1
Example:
=AVERAGE(B72:B81)
Mode
Value that occurs most often in discretized
data
Excel
=MODE(cellrange)
Example:
=MODE(B2:B81)
Median
The middle value in sorted data
Excel
=MEDIAN(cellrange)
Example:
=MEDIAN(D2:D81)
Example:
=MIN(D2:D81)
=MAX(D2:D81)
1
N
Sample
(x
i 1
Variance = 2
n
1
2
s
( xi x )
(n 1) i 1
Variance = s2
Excel
=STDEVP(cellrange)
=VARP(cellrange)
=STDEV(cellrange)
=VAR(cellrange)
Median is 79.5
Example Cont.
Verify
max is 99
min is 60
Range is 99-60 = 39
Population variance is 60.7
Population std. dev. is 7.79
Review:
The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is sometimes called
the Gauss curve.
1
RF
2
1
2
x / 2
e 2
mean
RF
Relative
Frequency
Review:
Standard Normal Distribution
Define:
z x /
Area = 1.00
Then
RF
0.5
1 2
z
e 2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Z-transform
z x /
Excel
=STANDARDIZE(x,mean,stddev)
Example:
Standard Normal
Cumulative Distribution
area from minus
infinity to z
0.5
0.4
0.3
NOT
0.2
0.1
0.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Excel
=NORMSDIST(z)
2.0
3.0
4.0
0 to z, like Z-table
Example:
=NORMSDIST(1.0)
=0.8413
Example
=NORMDIST(85,75,10,true)
= 0.8413
Frequency
20
Actual Scores
Normal Approx
15
10
5
0
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Score Bins
85
90
95
100
Excel Example
Normal distribution with =5, =0.2
Find area from 4.8 to 5.4
Solution 1:
=STANDARDIZE(4.8,5,0.2) Gives -1
=STANDARDIZE(5.4,5,0.2) Gives 2
=NORMSDIST(2)-NORMSDIST(-1) = 0.8186
Solution 2:
=NORMDIST(5.4,5,0.2,TRUE)NORMDIST(4.8,5,0.2,TRUE) = 0.8186
Inverse Problem
Given , and probability, find x
=NORMINV(prob,mean,stddev)
Given probability, find z
=NORMSINV(prob)
Note: The probability is the area under the
curve from minus infinity to x (or z)
Inverse Problem:
Example 1
A batch of bolts have length =5.00 mm, =0.20
mm.
99% of the bolts are shorter than what length?
Solution 1:
=NORMINV(0.99,5,0.2) gives 5.47 mm
Solution 2:
=NORMSINV(0.99) = 2.33
5.00+0.20*2.33 = 5.47 mm
Inverse Problem:
Example 2
A batch of bolts have length =5.00 mm, =0.20
mm. The bolt length is specified as 5.00 mm
tolerance. What is the value of the tolerance
such that 99% of the bolts are encompassed?
Solution:
=NORMINV(0.995,5,0.2) = 5.52 mm
=NORMINV(0.005,5,0.2) = 4.48 mm
Tolerance = 5.52 - 5.00 = 0.52 mm
Note: It is symmetrical; therefore 0.5% on either side
Bolt Specification
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
99% Area
Tail
Tail
0
4
4.5
5
Length
5.5
Team Exercise
The clock frequency of a batch of Intel
microprocessors was measured to be a normal
distribution with =475 MHz, =50 MHz.
What fraction of processors can be sold in each
category?
>600 MHz
550 - 600 MHz
500 - 550 MHz
450 - 500 MHz
Think-Pair-Share
In the next 1 minute, as an individual
list three specific things that you dont understand
about todays topic
Now take 2 minutes
to merge your list with the person sitting next to you
AND add 1 new item to the list
In the next 5 minutes
share the results with the other half of your team,
delete questions that you can answer for each other,
AND prioritize the remaining questions your list