Virtual University of Pakistan

Lecture No. 23
of the course on
Statistics and Probability
by

Miss Saleha Naghmi Habibullah

IN THE LAST LECTURE,

YOU LEARNT
Bayes Theorem
Discrete Random Variable
Discrete Probability Distribution
Graphical Representation of a Discrete Probability
Distribution
Mean, Standard Deviation and Coefficient of
Variation of a Discrete Probability Distribution
Distribution Function of a Discrete Random Variable.

TOPICS FOR TODAY

Graphical Representation of the Distribution Function of
a Discrete Random Variable
Mathematical Expectation

Mean, Variance and Moments of a Discrete Probability

Distribution
Properties of Expected Values

First,

let
us
consider
the
concept
of
the
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION of a discrete random
variable.
As discussed in the last lecture:

DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
The distribution function of a random variable X,
denoted by F(x), is defined by F(x) = P(X < x).
The function F(x) gives the probability of the event
that X takes a value LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO a
specified value x.
The distribution function is abbreviated to d.f. and
is also called the cumulative distribution function (cdf)
as it is the cumulative probability function of the random
variable X from the smallest value upto a specific value x.

EXAMPLE
Find the probability distribution and distribution
function for the number of heads when 3 balanced coins
are tossed.
Depict both the probability distribution and the
distribution function graphically.

Since the coins are balanced, therefore the equiprobable sample space for this experiment is
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH,
HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}.

Let X be the random variable that denotes the

number of heads.
Then the values of X are
0, 1, 2 and 3.

And their probabilities are:

f(0)
f(1)
f(2)
f(2)

= P(X = 0)
= P[{TTT}] = 1/8
= P(X = 1)
= P[{HTT, THT, TTH}] = 3/8
= P(X = 2)
= P[{HHT, HTH, THH}] = 3/8
= P(X = 3)
= P[{HHH}] = 1/8

Expressing the above information in the tabular

form, we obtain the desired probability distribution of X
as follows:

Number of Heads Probability

(xi)
f(xi)
0
1
2
3
Total

1
8
3
8
3
8
1
8
1

The line chart of the above

probability distribution is as
follows:

f(x)
4/8

3/8
2/8

1/8
0
0

In order to obtain the distribution function of this

random variable, we compute the cumulative probabilities
as follows:

Number of
Heads
(xi)
0
1
2
3

Probability
f(xi)

1
8
3
8
3
8
1
8

Cumulative
Probability
F(xi)

1
8
1 3 4

8 8 8
4 3 7

8 8 8
7 1
1
8 8

Hence the desired distribution function is

0,
1
,
8
4
Fx ,
8

7
,
8

1,

for x 0
for 0 x 1
for 1 x 2
for 2 x 3
for x 3

INTERPRETATION:
If x < 0, we have
P(X < x) = 0, the reason being that it is not possible
for our random variable X to assume value less than zero.
(The minimum number of heads that we can have in
tossing three coins is zero.)
If 0 < x < 1, we note that it is not possible for our
random variable X to assume any value between zero and
one. (We will have no head or one head but we will NOT
have 1/3 heads or 2/5 heads!)
Hence, the probabilities of all such values will be
zero, and hence we will obtain a situation which can be
explained through the following table:

Number of
Heads
(xi)
0

Probability
f(xi)

1
8

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

3
8

Cumulative
Probability
F(xi)

1
8

1
1
0
8
8
1
1
0
8
8
1
1
0
8
8
1
1
0
8
8
1 3 4

8 8 8

The above table clearly shows that the probability

that X is LESS THAN any value lying between zero and
0.9999 will be equal to the probability of X = 0 i.e.
For 0 < x < 1,

1
P(X x) P(X 0) ;
8

Similarly,
For 1 < x < 2, we have

PX x PX 0 PX 1
1 3 4
;
8 8 8
For 2 < x < 3, we have

PX x PX 0 PX 1 PX 2
1 3 3 7
;
8 8 8 8

And, finally, for x > 3, we have

PX x PX 0 PX 1 PX 2 P(X 3)
1 3 3 1 8
1.
8 8 8 8 8

Hence, the graph of the

DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
is as follows:

F(x)
1
6/8
4/8

2/8
0

As this graph resembles the steps of a staircase, it

is known as a step function.
It is also known as a jump function (as it takes
jumps at integral values of X).

In some books, the graph of

the distribution function is
given as shown in the following
figure:

F(x)
1
6/8
4/8

2/8
0

In what way do we interpret

the above distribution function
from a REAL-LIFE point of
view?
If we toss three balanced
coins, the probability that we
obtain at the most one head is 4/8,
the probability that we obtain at
the most two heads is 7/8, and so
on.

Let us consider another

interesting example to illustrate
the concepts of a discrete
probability distribution and its
distribution function:

EXAMPLE
A large store places its last 15 clock radios in a
clearance sale. Unknown to any one, 5 of the radios are
defective.
If a customer tests 3 different clock radios selected
at random, what is the probability distribution of X,
where X represent the number of defective radios in the
sample?

SOLUTION
We have:

Type of
Clock Radio
Good
Defective
Total

Number of
Clock Radios
10
5
15

The total number of ways of

selecting 3 radios out of 15 is

15
.
3

Also, the total number of ways of selecting 3

good radios (and no defective radio)
is 10 5 .
3 0

Hence, the probability of

X = 0 is

10 5

3 0 0.26.
15

3

The probabilities of X = 1, 2, and 3 are computed in

a similar way.
Hence,
distribution:

we obtain the following probability

Number of defective
clock radios in the
sample
X
0
1
2
3
Total

Probability

f(x)
0.26
0.49
0.22
0.02
0.99 1

The line chart of this

distribution is:

LINE CHART
f(x)

0.5
0.4

0.3
0.2

0.1
0
0

As indicated by the above diagram, it is not

necessary for a probability distribution to be symmetric;
it can be positively or negatively skewed.

The distribution function of

the
above
probability
distribution is obtained as
follows:

Number of defective
clock radios in the
sample
X
0
1
2
3
Total

f(x)

F(x)

0.26
0.49
0.22
0.02
0.99 1

0.26
0.75
0.97
0.99 1

INTERPRETATION
The probability that the sample of 3 clock radios
contains at the most one defective radio is 0.75, the
probability that the sample contains at the most two
defective radios is 0.97, and so on.

Next, we consider the concept of

MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION.

Let a discrete random variable X have possible

values x1, x2, , xn with corresponding probabilities
f(x1),
f(x2),
,
f(xn)
such
that
f(xi) =1.
Then the mathematical expectation or the
expectation or the expected value of X, denoted by E(x),
is defined as28

E(X) = x1f(x1) + x2f(x2) + + xnf(xn)

n

x i f x i ,
i 1

E(X) is also called the mean of X and is usually denoted

by the letter .

The expression
n

E X x i f x i
i 1

may be regarded as a weighted

mean of the variables possible
values x1, x2, , xn, each being
weighted by the respective
probability.

In case the values are

equally likely,
1
EX x i ,
n

which
represents
the
ordinary arithmetic mean
of the n possible values.

It should be noted that

E(X) is the average value of
the random variable X over
a VERY LARGE number of
trials.

Let us now consider an

interesting example:

EXAMPLE
If it rains, an umbrella salesman can earn $ 30 per
day. If it is fair, he can lose $ 6 per day. What is his
expectation if the probability of rain is 0.3?

SOLUTION
Let X represent the number of
dollars the salesman earns. Then X
is a random variable with possible
values
30
and
6,
(where -6 corresponds to the fact
that the salesman loses), and the
corresponding probabilities are 0.3
and 0.7 respectively.

Hence, we have:

EVENT
Rain
No Rain

AMOUNT
EARNED
($)
x
30
6
Total

PROBABILITY
P(x)
0.3
0.7
1

In order to compute the

expected value of X, we carry
out the following computation:

EVENT
Rain
No Rain

AMOUNT
EARNED
($)
x
30
6
Total

PROBABILITY
P(x)

xP(x)

0.3
0.7
1

9.0
-4.2
4.8

Hence

E(X) = $ 4.80 per day

i.e. on the average, the salesman can
expect to earn 4.8 dollars per day.

Until now, we have

considered the mathematical
expectation of the random
variable X.
But, in many situations, we
may be interested in the
mathematical expectation of
some FUNCTION of X:

EXPECTATION OF A
FUNCTION
OF A RANDOM VARIABLE
Let H(X) be a function of the random variable X.
Then H(X) is also a random variable and also has an
expected value, (as any function of a random variable is also
a random variable).

If X is a discrete random variable with probability

distribution f(x), then, since H(X) takes the value H(xi)
when X = xi, the expected value of the function H(X) is
E[H(X)]
= H(x1) f(x1) + H(x2)f(x2) + + H(xn) f(xn)

provided the series converges absolutely.

H x i f x i ,
i

In particular, if H(X) = X2, then E(X2) = xi2 f(x).

It is relevant to note that E(X2) is not the same as
[E(X)]2.

Again, if H(X) = (X - )2, where is the population

mean, then
E(X )2 = (xi - )2 f(x).
We call this expected value the variance and denote
it by Var(X) or 2.

And, since
E(X )2 = E(X2) [E(X)]2,
hence the short cut formula for the
variance is
2 = E(X2) [E(X)]2.

The positive square root of the

variance, a before, is called the
standard deviation.

More generally, if
H(X) = Xk, k = 1, 2, 3, , then
E(Xk) = xik f(x)
which we call the kth moment about the origin of the
random variable X and we denote it by k.

Similarly, if H(X) = (X )k, k = 1, 2, 3, , then we

get an expected value, called the kth moment about the
mean of the random variable X, which we denote by k.
That is:
k = E(X )k = (xi )k f(x)

The skewness of a probability distribution is often

measured by

and kurtosis by

2
3
3
2

4
2

.
2

These moment-ratios assist us in determining the

skewness and kurtosis of our probability distribution in
exactly the same way as was discussed in the case of
frequency distributions.

Next, we discuss some important properties of

mathematical expectation.

The important properties of the expected values

of a random variable are as follows:

PROPERTIES OF MATHEMATICAL
EXPECTATION

1. If
c
is
a
constant,
then
E(c) = c.
Thus the expected value of a constant is
constant itself.

This point can be understood

easily by considering the following
interesting example:

Suppose that a very difficult test

was given to students by a professor,
and that every student obtained 2
marks out of 20!
It is obvious that the mean mark
is also 2. Since the variable marks
was a constant, therefore its
expected value was equal to itself.

2.
If X is a discrete random variable and if a and b
are constants, then
E(aX + b) = a E(X) + b.

Let us verify this from

the following example:

EXAMPLE
Let X represent the number of
heads that appear when three fair coins
are tossed.
The probability distribution of X is:
X
0
1
2
3
Total

P(x)
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1

The expected value of X is

obtained as follows:
x
0
1
2
3
Total

P(x)
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1

Hence, E(X) = 1.5

xP(x)
0
3/8
6/8
3/8
12/8=1.5

Suppose that we are

interested in finding the
expected value of the random
variable 2X+3.
Then we carry out the
following computations:

x
0
1
2
3

2x+3
3
5
7
9
Total

P(x)
1/8
3/8
3/8
1/8
1

Hence
E(2X+3) = 6

(2x+3)P(x)
3/8
15/8
21/8
9/8
48/8=6

It should be noted that

E(2X+3) = 6
= 2(1.5) + 3
= 2E(X) + 3
i.e.

E(aX + b) = a E(X) + b.

IN TODAYS LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT

Graphical
Representation
of
the
Distribution Function of a Discrete
Random Variable

Mathematical Expectation
Mean, Variance and Moments of a
Discrete Probability Distribution
Properties of Expected Values

IN THE NEXT LECTURE,

YOU WILL LEARN

Chebychevs Inequality
Continuous Probability
Distributions