COSP II

Lesson 5 : Estimation and Sample

Sizes
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=
5-1 Review of Sampling distribution
5-2 Estimating a Population Mean:
Large Sample
5-3 Estimating a Population Mean:
Small Samples
5-4 Sample Size Required to Estimate
5-5 Estimating a Population Proportion
5-6 Sample Size Required to Estimate

5-1 Review of Sampling Distribution

I. Distribution of Data :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Populations Parameter

Samples Estimate

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1. Mean of data:

= Xi / N

2. Variance of data: 2 = (Xi - )2/ N

3. Standard deviation :

Samples Mean:

x = xi /n

Samples Variance

s2 = (xi - x)2/ n-1

Samples SD : s

II. Distribution of Samples Means

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Populations Parameters
Samples Estimates
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Mean of means:

x = Xi / N

2. Variance of mean
Means

X2 = 2 / n

Samples Mean:

x = xi /n

Samples Variance of

sx2 = s2/n

5.2 Estimating a Population Mean :

Large Samples
Assumptions :
1. n > 30
The sample must have more than 30 values.
2. Simple Random Sample
All samples of the same size have an equal
chance of
being selected.

Definitions :
1. Estimator
a formula or process for using sample data to
estimate a
population parameter
2. Estimate
a specific value or range of values used to
approximate
some population parameter
3. Point Estimate

a single value (or point) used to approximate a

population parameter
---

The sample mean x is the best point estimate of the

Definition :
4. Confidence Interval (or Interval Estimate)
a range (or an interval) of values used to
estimate the
true value of the population parameter
Lower # < population parameter < Upper #
As an example :

Lower # < < Upper #

Confidence Intervals from 20 Different Samples

Found from Table A-2

(corresponds to area of
0.5 - /2 )

Definition
Margin of Error
E = z/2 /n

Formula 5-1

Calculating E When Is Unknown

* If n > 30, we can replace in Formula 5-1 by
the
sample standard deviation s.
* If n 30, the population must have a normal
distribution and we must know to use

Formula 5-1.

5.3 Estimating a Population Mean :

Small Samples
n < 30

The sampling distribution of statistic (x - ) / (s/ n)

is not
normal when n is small, but it is a t-distribution on

n-1
degress of freedom (d.f).
95 % confidence interval for the population mean :

= X t 0.025 .s / n
Note : d.f = amount of information used in
calculating s2
= divisor in s2 ( d.f = n - 1)

Example : Estimating a Population Mean :

Small Samples

From a large class, a random sample of 10 grades were draw

67, 66, 72, 78, 89, 90, 87, 77, 60, 75.

Calculate a 95 % confidence interval for the whole class mea

Solution : Since n = 10, d.f = n-1 = 9; and from Table V :

t 0.025 = 2.26. From the data, we calculate X = 76.1 and

s = 10.246
95 % confidence interval for the population mean :

= 76.1 2.26 .10.246 / 10

= 76.1 7.3
That is, with 95 % confidence we conclude that the mean

of the whole class is between 68.8 and 83.4.

Problems :
1. Twenty-five marks were randomly sampled
from a very large class having a standard
deviation of 13. If these 25 marks had a mean
of 58, find a 95 % confidence interval for the
mean mark of the whole class.
2. A random sample of 9 infants from a hospital
nursery gave the following birth weights
(kilograms)
3.1, 2.8, 3.6,

3.7, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2,

3.4,

3.5

a. if =0.4, find the 95 % confidence interval

for the population mean birth weight.
b. find the 99 % confidence interval
c. find the 95 % confidence interval, if is
unknown.

Lesson 6 : Estimation and sample Sizes

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6.1. Sample Size Required to Estimate

6.2. Estimating a Population Proportion
6.3. Sample Size Required to Estimate
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Lesson 6 : Estimation and sample Sizes

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6.1. Sample Size Required to Estimate

From Lesson 5 : _
= X Z/2 * /

_
|-X|=

Z/2 * /

n
E = Z/2 * / n
n = (Z/2 * / E)2
=====================

Example : The population consists of cancer

patients with a standard deviation survival =
43.3 months.
How large a sample of cancer patients is
needed so that 95 percent of the means of
samples of this size will be within 6 months of
the population mean ?
Answer :

n = (Z/2 * / E)2

= (1.96 * 43.3 / 6)2 = 200 patients.

6.2. Estimating a Population Proportion

From sampling distribution for sample
proportion
(Lesson 4) :

The critical ratio (Z score) is :

(p - )
Z = ------------- (1- ) / n

= p Z/2 * (1- ) / n

For the unknown , we can subtitute with the

sample p.
6.3. Sample Size Required to Estimate
n = (1- ) (Z/2 / E)2

Example 1:
In an industrial plant, a researcher found lower
respiratory tract symptoms in 30 of 40 workers.
With this information, obtain a 95 % confidence
interval for the proportion of symptoms in the
population ?
Answer : p = 30/40 = 0.75
= p Z/2 * p (1- p) / n
= 0.75 1.96 * 0.75(0.25)/40
= 0.75 0.134
or

0.616 < < 0.884

or

61.6 % < < 88.4 %

Example 2:
A local health department wishes to estimate
the prevalence of tuberculosis among
children under five years of age in its locality.
How many children should be included in the
sample so that the prevalence may be
estimated to within 5 percentage points of
true value with 95 % confidence, if it is known
that the true rate is unlikely to exceed 20 % ?
Answer :
n = (1- ) (Z/2 / E)2
= 0.2 (1-0.2) (1.96/0.05)2 = 246.

Problems :
1. In a city with 20,000 households, 3 % of the households
were
randomly sampled by a large survey research service.
The
average number of cars per household was 1.2, while the
standard deviation was 0.8. As well, 15 % of the
households
had no cars at all. For the whole city, construct a 95 %
confidence interval for :
a. The average number of cars per household.
b. The percentage of households with no car.
2. The researcher seeks to estimate the proportion of
children who
are receiving appropriate childhood vaccinations. How
many