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*E-mail: mariangeles.rivera@upr.

edu
+E-mail: maytee.cruz@upr.edu

SIMULATIONS/PRELIMINARY RESULTS

INTRODUCTION
Our research focused on Avian Influenza Type A-H5N1,
specifically on an epidemiological model centered in Puerto
Rico. My main goal is to address the following: first, to
determined the potential outbreaks of this disease in Puerto
Rico using as a base the location of the poultry industry as a
hub, we are using Pollos To-Ricos in the town of Aibonito, but
more importantly, I am interested on the repercussions of the
infection among the human-to-human potential interaction. The
second goal is centered on the possibility of vaccination to
mitigate an epidemic among humans. In order to address these
goals and future ones we will construct a mathematical model
and use two different set of parameters according to two cases
that involve how the poultry is raised and managed by industrial
companies. Hence, our third focus is the comparison of the
parameter values according to a case where the poultry is raised
free-range (organically) or massively overcrowded in a factory
environment. My research will specifically target the spread of
this particular disease, to investigate possible alternatives to
mitigate the spread using measures such as treatment,
immunization and the importance to educate the public or the
community to prevent the spread of the disease.

Disease Symptoms

Different sites and outcomes of H1N1 versus H5N1 influenza


infections. Based on Respiratory system. May 2009, Image
from Wikimedia Commons. Author: Tim Vickers

Colorized transmission electron


micrograph of Avian influenza A
H5N1 viruses (seen in gold) grown in
MDCK cells (seen in green). Photo
Credit: Cynthia Goldsmith Content
Providers: CDC/ Courtesy of Cynthia
Goldsmith; Jacqueline Katz; Sherif R.
Zaki - This media comes from the
Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention's Public Health Image
Library (PHIL), with identification
number #1841.

In this figure we change the initial day of vaccination from 0 to 50


days. Vaccinating 30% of the population. As we delay the
vaccination the number of deaths in the human population
changes where on day 30 increase dramatically. The infected
population also increases as the vaccination start later changing
the duration and the peak of the epidemic.

Schematic of disease transmission

MATEMATICAL MODEL

The parameter values used in the simulations are as


described in the table on the Mathematical Model section
where we use an incubation period for humans of 9 days
and change the percentage of vaccinated individuals for
the simulations shown and the starting day of the
vaccination campaign for figures A and B.

In this figure we change the initial day of vaccination from 0 to 50


days. Vaccinating 10% of the population. As we delay the
vaccination the number of deaths in the human population
changes where on day 30 increase dramatically. The infected
population also increases as the vaccination start later changing
the duration and the peak of the epidemic. We notice a
difference in the epidemic size for starting days 0 and 10 in
comparison with Figure A.
In this figure we start the vaccination at the same time the
epidemic starts. We change the vaccinated percentage from 10%
to 70%. As we increase the percentage the epidemic decrease as
well as the number of deaths but computational it can be shown
that when we vaccinate at least 30% of the population we can
eradicate the epidemic.

FUTURE WORK
Mathematical analysis:
Work on the equilibrium points and basic reproductive number threshold using the next generation operator.
Implement different parameter values for the mathematical model.
Parameters

Definitions

Infectious rate for chickens

hp

Infectious rate for human - to - human


interaction
Infectious rate for chicken - human
interaction

Lower infectivity for the interaction


between exposed and susceptible humans

h
p
p
h

Basic Reproductive Number

Recovery rate for humans


Recovery rate for chickens

1/h

Death rate due to infection in chickens


Death rate due to infection in humans
Incubation period for humans

Vaccination rate for humans

p
bp

Demographics - birth rate and


mortality Free Range
Demographics - birth rate
massive chicks rate

Range
2.5
0.5
0.2
0.95
0.1
0.002
0.05
0.005
2-17 days
Effectiveness
of 60 to 90%.
0.005
0.1

Computational Analysis:
Work on simulations to study the dynamics of the epidemic in different scenarios.
Implement a networking approach in the model to include the spread of the disease in different towns in Puerto Rico.

SELECTED REFERENCES
1. Avian Influenza A H5N1 infection in Humans, The Writing Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO), Consultation on Human Influenza
A/H5; John H. Biegel, M.D., National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Jeremy Farrar, September 29, 2005.
2. Human Influenza A H5N1, virus related to a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, Eric C J Class, Albert D M E Osterhaus, Ruud van Beek, Jan C
De Jong ; THE LANCET Vol. 351; February 14, 1998.
3. Computational analysis and determination of a highly conserved surface expose segment in H5N1 avian flu and H1N1 swine flu neuraminidase,
Ambarnil Ghosh, Ashesh Nandy and Nandy Papiya, Ghosh et al. BMC Structural Biology 2010, 10:6.
4. Organizacin Mundial de la Salud, Link: http://www.who.int/es/.
5. A mathematical model of avian influenza with half-saturated incidence, Nyuk Sian Chong, Jean Michel Tchuenche, Robert J. Smith?, Theory Biosci.
(2014) 133:23 -38, DOI 10.1007/s12064-013-0183-6.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank the BRIC program and the University of Puerto Rico at Cayey for the opportunity to conduct this research and I thank my
mentor Dr. Mayte Cruz Aponte for her guidance.

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