N.

Gregory Mankiw

Macroeconomics
Sixth Edition

Chapter 9:
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

Econ 4020/Chatterjee

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 0

In this chapter, you will learn

facts about the business cycle

how the short run differs from the long run

an introduction to aggregate demand
an introduction to aggregate supply in the short
run and long run

how the model of aggregate demand and

aggregate supply can be used to analyze the
short-run and long-run effects of shocks.
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 1

Facts about the business cycle

GDP growth averages 33.5 percent per year over
the long run with large fluctuations in the short run.

Consumption and investment fluctuate with GDP,

but consumption tends to be less volatile and
investment more volatile than GDP.

Unemployment rises during recessions and falls

during expansions.

Okuns Law: the negative relationship between

GDP and unemployment.
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 2

Growth rates of real GDP, consumption

Percent 10
change
from 4 8
quarters
earlier 6

Real GDP
growth rate
Consumption
growth rate

Average 4
growth
rate 2
0

-2
-4
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Growth rates of real GDP, consumption, investment

Percent 40
change
from 4 30
quarters
earlier 20

Investment
growth rate

Real GDP
growth rate

10
0

Consumption
growth rate

-10
-20
-30
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Unemployment
Percent 12
of labor
force
10

8
6
4
2
0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Okuns Law
Percentage 10
change in
real GDP 8

1951

Y
3.5 2 u
Y

1966

1984

2003

4
1987

2
0

1975
2001

-2

1991 1982

-4
-3

-2

-1

Change in unemployment rate

Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Published monthly by the Conference Board.

Aims to forecast changes in economic activity

6-9 months into the future.

Used in planning by businesses and govt,

despite not being a perfect predictor.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 7

Components of the LEI index

Average workweek in manufacturing

Initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance

New orders for consumer goods and materials
New orders, non-defense capital goods

Vendor performance
New building permits issued
Index of stock prices

M2
Yield spread (10-year minus 3-month) on Treasuries
Index of consumer expectations

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 8

Index of Leading Economic Indicators

160

1996 = 100

140

120
100
80
60
40
20

Source:
Conference
Board

0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Time horizons in macroeconomics

Long run:
Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply
or demand.

Short run:
Many prices are sticky at some predetermined
level.
The economy behaves much
differently when prices are sticky.
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 10

Recap of classical macro theory

(Chaps. 3-8)

Output is determined by the supply side:

supplies of capital, labor
technology.
Changes in demand for goods & services
(C, I, G ) only affect prices, not quantities.

Assumes complete price flexibility.

Applies to the long run.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 11

When prices are sticky

output and employment also depend on
demand, which is affected by
fiscal policy (G and T )
monetary policy (M )
other factors, like exogenous changes in
C or I.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 12

The model of
aggregate demand and supply

the paradigm most mainstream economists

and policymakers use to think about economic
fluctuations and policies to stabilize the economy

shows how the price level and aggregate output

are determined

shows how the economys behavior is different

in the short run and long run

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 13

Aggregate demand

The aggregate demand curve shows the

relationship between the price level and the
quantity of output demanded.

For this chapters intro to the AD/AS model,

we use a simple theory of aggregate demand
based on the quantity theory of money.

Chapters 10-12 develop the theory of aggregate

demand in more detail.
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 14

The Quantity Equation as

Aggregate Demand

From Chapter 4, recall the quantity equation

MV = PY

For given values of M and V,

this equation implies an inverse relationship
between P and Y :

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 15

The downward-sloping AD curve

An increase in the
price level causes
a fall in real money
balances (M/P ),

causing a
decrease in the
demand for goods
& services.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

AD

slide 16

Shifting the AD curve

P
An increase in
the money supply
shifts the AD
curve to the right.
AD2
AD1

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 17

Aggregate supply in the long run

Recall from Chapter 3:

In the long run, output is determined by
factor supplies and technology

Y F (K , L )
Y is the full-employment or natural level of
output, the level of output at which the
economys resources are fully employed.
Full employment means that
unemployment equals its natural rate (not zero).
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 18

The long-run aggregate supply

curve
P

LRAS

Y does not
depend on P,
so LRAS is
vertical.

Y
F (K , L )
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 19

Long-run effects of an increase in M

P

In the long run,

this raises the
price level

LRAS
An increase
in M shifts
AD to the
right.

P2
P1

AD2
AD1

but leaves
output the same.
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 20

Aggregate supply in the short run

Many prices are sticky in the short run.

For now (and through Chap. 12), we assume

all prices are stuck at a predetermined level in
the short run.

firms are willing to sell as much at that price

level as their customers are willing to buy.

Therefore, the short-run aggregate supply

(SRAS) curve is horizontal:

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 21

The short-run aggregate supply curve

P

The SRAS
curve is
horizontal:
The price level
is fixed at a
predetermined
level, and firms
sell as much as
buyers demand.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

SRAS

slide 22

Short-run effects of an increase in M

In the short run
when prices are
sticky,

an increase
in aggregate
demand

SRAS
AD2
AD1

causes
output to rise.
CHAPTER 9

Y1

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

Y2

slide 23

The SR & LR effects of M > 0

A = initial
equilibrium
B = new shortrun eqm
after Fed
increases M
C = long-run
equilibrium

CHAPTER 9

LRAS

P2

B
A

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

Y2

SRAS
AD2
AD1

slide 25

The effects of a negative demand shock

AD shifts left,
depressing output
and employment
in the short run.
Over time,
prices fall and
the economy
moves down its
demand curve
toward fullemployment.
CHAPTER 9

LRAS

P2

SRAS

AD1
AD2

Y2

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 27

Supply shocks
A supply shock alters production costs, affects the
prices that firms charge. (also called price shocks)

Examples of adverse supply shocks:

Bad weather reduces crop yields, pushing up
food prices.
Workers unionize, negotiate wage increases.
New environmental regulations require firms to
reduce emissions. Firms charge higher prices to
help cover the costs of compliance.

Favorable supply shocks lower costs and prices.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 28

CASE STUDY:

The 1970s oil shocks

Early 1970s: OPEC coordinates a reduction in

the supply of oil.

Oil prices rose

11% in 1973
68% in 1974
16% in 1975

Such sharp oil price increases are supply shocks

because they significantly impact production
costs and prices.
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 29

CASE STUDY:

The 1970s oil shocks

The oil price shock
shifts SRAS up,
causing output and
employment to fall.

In absence of
further price
shocks, prices will
fall over time and
economy moves
back toward full
employment.
CHAPTER 9

P2

LRAS

SRAS2
A

P1

SRAS1
AD

Y2

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 30

CASE STUDY:

The 1970s oil shocks

70%

Predicted effects
of the oil shock:
inflation
output
unemployment
and then a
gradual recovery.

12%

60%
50%

10%

40%
8%

30%
20%

6%

10%
0%
1973

1974

1975

1976

4%
1977

Change in oil prices (left scale)

Inflation rate-CPI (right scale)
Unemployment rate (right scale)
CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 31

CASE STUDY:

The 1970s oil shocks

60%

Late 1970s:
As economy
was recovering,
oil prices shot up
again, causing
another huge
supply shock!!!

14%

50%

12%

40%
10%
30%
8%
20%
6%

10%
0%
1977

4%
1978

1979

1980

1981

Change in oil prices (left scale)

Inflation rate-CPI (right scale)
Unemployment rate (right scale)

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 32

CASE STUDY:

The 1980s oil shocks

40%

1980s:
A favorable
supply shock-a significant fall
in oil prices.
As the model
predicts,
inflation and
unemployment
fell:

10%

30%
8%

20%
10%

6%

0%
-10%

4%

-20%
-30%

2%

-40%
-50%
1982

0%
1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

Change in oil prices (left scale)

Inflation rate-CPI (right scale)
Unemployment rate (right scale)

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 33

Stabilization policy

def: policy actions aimed at reducing the

severity of short-run economic fluctuations.

Example: Using monetary policy to combat the

effects of adverse supply shocks:

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 34

Stabilizing output with

monetary policy
P
The adverse
supply shock
moves the
economy to
point B.

P2

LRAS

B
A

P1

SRAS1
AD1

Y2
CHAPTER 9

SRAS2

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 35

Stabilizing output with

monetary policy
But the Fed
accommodates
the shock by
raising agg.
demand.

P2

P1
results:
P is permanently
higher, but Y
remains at its fullemployment level.
CHAPTER 9

LRAS

SRAS2

AD1
Y2

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

AD2

slide 36

Chapter Summary
1. Long run: prices are flexible, output and employment

are always at their natural rates, and the classical

theory applies.
Short run: prices are sticky, shocks can push output
and employment away from their natural rates.
2. Aggregate demand and supply:

a framework to analyze economic fluctuations

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 37

Chapter Summary
3. The aggregate demand curve slopes downward.

4. The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical,

because output depends on technology and factor

supplies, but not prices.
5. The short-run aggregate supply curve is horizontal,

because prices are sticky at predetermined levels.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 38

Chapter Summary
6. Shocks to aggregate demand and supply cause

fluctuations in GDP and employment in the short run.

7. The Fed can attempt to stabilize the economy with

monetary policy.

CHAPTER 9

Introduction to Economic Fluctuations

slide 39