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Foreign Exchange
Market Characteristics:
An Interbank Market
The spot market is a market for immediate
delivery (2 to 3 days).
Primarily an interbank market, which is the
trading of foreign-currency-denominated
deposits between large banks.
Approximately $US1.4 - 1.6 trillion daily in
global transactions.
Spot Market
Market Quotes:
Direct - Indirect Quotes
Direct quote is the home currency price of a
foreign currency.
Indirect quote is the foreign currency price
of the home currency.
Spot Market
Appreciating and
Depreciating Currencies
A currency that has lost value relative to
another currency is said to have depreciated.
A currency that has gained value relative to
another currency is said to have appreciated.
This terms relate to the market process and are
different from devaluation and revaluation
(Chapter 3).
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Appreciating and
Depreciating Currencies
We use the percentage change formula to
calculate the amount of depreciation.
Example, on Monday, the peso traded at
0.1021 $/P. On Tuesday the market closed
at 0.1025 $/P.
The peso has appreciated, as it now takes
more $ to purchase each peso.
Spot Market
Appreciating and
Depreciating Currencies
Example, on Monday, the peso traded at
0.1021 $/P. On Tuesday the market closed
at 0.1025 $/P.
The amount of appreciation is:
[(0.1025 - 0.1021)/0.1021] * 100 = 0.39%
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Arbitrage:
Consistency of Cross Rates
Arbitrage is the simultaneous buying and
selling to profit (as opposed to speculation).
The ability of market participants to arbitrage
guarantees that cross rates will be, in general,
consistent.
If a cross rate is not consistent, the actions of
currency traders (arbitrage) will bring the
respective currencies in line.
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Spatial Arbitrage
Spatial Arbitrage refers to buying a
currency in one market and selling it in
another.
Price differences arise from geographical
(spatial) dispersed markets.
Due to the low-cost rapid-information
nature of the foreign exchange market,
these prices differences are arbitraged away
quickly.
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Triangular Arbitrage
Triangular arbitrage involves a third currency
and/or market.
Arbitrage opportunities exist if an observed rate
in another market is not consistent with a crossrate (ignoring transaction costs).
Again, profit opportunities are likely to be
arbitraged away quickly, meaning that crossrates are, for the most part, consistent with
observed rates.
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Example Continued
A trader with $1, could buy 0.687 in New
York.
The 0.687 would purchase b57.274 in
London.
The b57.274 purchases $1.375 in New
York, or 37.5% profit on the transaction.
To understand the arbitrage opportunity,
remember buy low, sell high.
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Example: Continued
Suppose in 1996 the British CPI was 156.4 and the
US CPI was 154.7. In 2000, the CPIs were 170.5
and 172.7 respectively.
Based on this, British prices rose 9.0 percent while
US prices rose 11.6 percent, a 2.6 difference.
Since the prices of British goods and services rose
slower than the prices of US goods and services,
there was an increase in purchasing power of
British goods and services relative to the
purchasing power of US goods and services.
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Conclusion
The nominal exchange rate change resulted in a 5.2
percent gain in the purchasing power of UK goods
and services for US residents.
The difference in price changes resulted in a 2.6
percent gain in purchasing power of UK goods and
services relative to US goods and services for US
residents.
Note how the 5.2 percent decline was augmented
by the 2.6 gain, resulting in an overall 7.7 percent
gain in purchasing power.
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Weights
Suppose that of all the trade of the US with
Canada, Mexico, and the UK, Canada
accounts for 50 percent, Mexico for 30
percent, and the UK for 20 percent.
These constitute our weights (0.50, 0.30, and
0.20).
Now consider the following exchange rate
data.
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Year Ago
$C
1.44
1.52
9.56
10.19
0.62
0.61
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Example
Let last year be the base year.
The effective exchange rate last year was:
[(1.52/1.52)*0.50 + (10.19/10.19)*0.30
+ (0.61/.61)*0.20]*100
= 100.
As with any index measure, the base year
value is 100.
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Example
Todays value of the EER is:
(1.44/1.52)*0.50 + (9.56/10.19)*0.30
+ (0.62/0.61)*0.20
or (0.958) 95.8
The dollar, therefore, has experienced a 4.2
percent depreciation in weighted value.
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180
160
United States
140
120
100
United Kingdom
80
Japan
60
40
20
38
39
S0
S1
Demand
Q0
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Q1
Quantity
40
Important Note
It is vital to construct and label supply and
demand diagrams properly.
Note here we are diagramming the market for the
euro. Hence, it is crucial to represent the correct
exchange rate on the vertical axis.
The correct exchange rate is one that reflects the
price of the euro. That is, it must be an indirect
quote.
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An Increase in Demand
Consider an increase in the demand for the euro.
Suppose, for example, that savers desire eurodenominated financial assets relative to
dollar-denominated financial assets because of a
change in economic conditions.
The demand for the euro rises as savers desire
more euros to purchase greater amounts of
European financial assets.
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S0
D
Demand
Q0
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Q1
Quantity
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44
S1
S0
Dollar depreciation B
A
Q0
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Q1
Quantity
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Equilibrium
The market is in equilibrium when the
quantity supplied of a currency is equal to
the quantity demanded.
This is the market clearing exchange rate
because there is no surplus or shortage of
the currency.
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Equilibrium
S ($/)
S
S0
D
Q0
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Quantity
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S ($/)
S
S1
S0
D
D
Q0
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Q1
Quantity
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S*
S0
D
Q0
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Quantity
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Undervalued
In the previous slide, the euro is said to be
undervalued.
The predicted or expected spot rate, S*, lies
above the market determined rate, S 0.
Hence, it should take a greater amount of
dollars to buy each euro. The euro,
therefore, is underpriced, or undervalued.
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Absolute PPP
Absolute PPP is expressed as P = P*S,
where P is the domestic price, P* is the
foreign price, and S is the spot rate,
expressed as domestic to foreign currency
units.
Often it is rearranged as: S = P/P*.
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Example
Suppose the exchange rate between the
dollar and the pound was 1.58 in 1999 and
is 1.60 today. Further, the UK CPI was 110
and is now 115, while the US CPI was 108
and is now111.
Plugging this into the formula we have
st = (1.58)[(111/108)/(115/110)] = 1.55
Hence the is overvalued (3.125%).
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Another Expression
Often economists will take the log of the previous
expression of RPPP to obtain the following.
- * = S
In words, domestic inflation less foreign inflation
should equal the change in the spot rate.
Implies that the higher inflation country should see
its currency depreciate.
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