POPULATION GEOGRAPHY

Mdm Masayu Mahmud

Innova JC

Weeks 2-3 ( Human Geography Lecture 1-2)

The History of Population Attributes of Populations
1) Demography and Population Geography
A Population Growth
B Fertility
C Mortality
D Population Profiles
E Population Capacity

Whats different about population geography at A

Levels
Facts
Focus
Explanations
F ( socio-cultural, economic, political, environmental,
historical)
Use of statistics
Case Study
Critique of policies
Use of theories
Models in population Geography

Overpopulation???

Population Geography
1. Demography and Population Geography
How population issues are investigated?

2. Global Demographic Trends

What are the major global demographic trends?

3. The Agricultural Revolution

What permitted the creation of the first civilizations?

4. The Industrial Revolution

How the modern society emerged?

Demography and Population Geography

Demography
Systematic analysis of population phenomena through empirical,
statistical and mathematical methods.
Interested about changes in the population size and composition.

Population Geography
Concerned by the spatial aspects of population:
1- Simple description of the location of the population.
2- Explanation of its spatial pattern and distribution.
3- Geographical analysis (processes such as urbanization and migration).

Demography rather emphasizes on time while population

geography emphasizes on space.

Diffusion of Homo Sapiens Around the World

By 2,000 BC

By 20,000 BC
By 500,000 BC

By 12,000 BC
By 11,000 BC

By 1,000,000 BC
AD 500
Origins:
7 million BC

33,000 BC

1,200 BC

By 40,000 BC
AD 1,000

By 10,000 BC

Demography and Population Geography

Evolution of the worlds population
Long historical process:
Has been very slow up to recently.
300 million people around year 0.
Remained small until the last 250 years.

A new growth trend:

Has increased almost exponentially.
From 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 1999.
To what it can be linked?

Population explosion

Defines a process of strong demographic growth.

Started after the Second World War.
About 80 million people added each year.
Major concern for the future of humanity.

World Population 1804-2054 (in billions)

26 years
15 years
14 years
12 years
13 years
14 years
33 years
127 years

10 Largest Countries, 2001 and 2050 (in millions)

2001

2050

The Agricultural Revolution

Nature
Started around 10,000 BC (12,000 years ago).
First major demographic change in human history.
Worlds population was around 5-10 million of mostly nomadic
tribes.
Likely occurred around the Fertile Crescent (Mesopotamia):
Tigris and Euphrates rivers in todays Iraq.

Domestication of crops and animals:

Large-scale agricultural production possible and leading to agrarian
societies.

Dawn of civilization.
Invention of the plow, the wheel, writing, and numbers.

Agricultural Hearths

Mesopotamia
(6,500 B.C.)

Nile
(5,000 B.C.)

Indus
(4,700 B.C.)

Ganges
(4,700 B.C.)

Huang He
(4,500 B.C.)

The Agricultural Revolution

Change of lifestyles

Population went from nomadic to sedentary lifestyle.

Created private property, tools and the accumulation of wealth.
Subsequently the creation of the state.
By 1500, 20% of the world was composed of statehoods.

Agricultural surpluses
Farming allowed greater population densities and the generation
of an agricultural surplus.
A growing share of the population was able to engage in nonagricultural activities.
Induced all sorts of innovations such as irrigation, craftsmanship,
and metallurgy.

The Agricultural Revolution

Specialization
Agricultural Innovation
Food Surpluses
Urbanization
Sedentary lifestyle

Division of Labor
Specialization
Stratification

Development of trade.
Creation of the first cities.

Stratification
An elite gained control of surplus
resources and defended their
position with arms.
Centralization of power and
resources:
Led to the development of the
state.

The rich and powerful developed

the institutions of the state to
further consolidate their gains.

The Agricultural Revolution

The Feudal society
A system of bonds and obligations:
Royalties from the serf to the lord of a share of the agricultural production.

Highly constraining system:

Administrative/legal (Lord) and religious (Church) control.
Fixation of the productive forces (tools and labor) in agricultural
production.

Economy:
Low levels of productivity (subsistence level).
Profits taken away by the lord/church, inhibiting any increases in
agricultural productivity.
80 to 90% of the population was in agriculture while the other share were
artisans and landowners.

Different types of feudal societies (China, Japan, Europe).

The Agricultural Revolution

Demographic consequences
High birth rates:
A feudal society required large families.
Help agricultural activities that were very labor intensive.
No contraceptives.

High death rates:

Wars between competing city-states.

Frequent disruption of food supplies.
Medicine almost non-existent.
Epidemics: One famous plague, the Black Death, reduced European
population by 25% between 1346 and 1348.
Life expectancy around 30-35 years.

The population growth rate remained low.

Small cities of at most 25,000 people.

The Industrial Revolution

Nature
Started at the end of the eighteenth century (1750-1780).
Transformations first observed in England.
Demographic transition of the population:
Fast growth rate.
This demographic theory is discussed in a subsequent chapter.

Economic and social transformations.

Technological innovations

Use of new materials (steel, iron, chemicals).

Usage of thermal energy to produce mechanical energy.
Substitution of machines to human and animal labor.
Production (factory).
Transportation (rail).
Health (medicine).

The Industrial Revolution

Agriculture

Less agricultural population.

Growth of the production of food.
Mechanization and fertilizers.
Scientific and commercial agriculture.

Social changes
Significant urbanization.
Creation of a labor class.
Migration from the countryside to cities:
By 1870 more of the half of the population of the first industrial nations
was no longer in the agricultural sector.
England had reached this stage since 1820.
Towards 1901, 75% of the English population lived in cities.

World Population Growth Through History

Billions
12
11

2100

10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8

New Stone Age

Bronze
Age

Iron
Age

Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000

Future

5
4

1975

3
1950

2
1

Black Death The Plague

1900
1800

1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

Growth in More, Less Developed Countries

Billions

Less Developed Countries

More Developed Countries

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Share of the Population in Agriculture, 1820-1910

Major Phases of Demographic Change

Agricultural
Revolution
12,000 years

Agricultural Revolution
Feudal society.
Wealth from agriculture and land
ownership.
Slow demographic growth.

Industrial Revolution
Industrial
Revolution
200 years

Post-Industrial
Revolution

Wage labor society.

Wealth from industry and capital
ownership.
Fast demographic growth.

Post-Industrial Revolution
Information society.
Wealth from technological
development.
Slow demographic growth.

Major Phases of Socioeconomic Change

Stone Age

Feudalism

Industrial

Planetary

Organization

Tribe / Village

City-state,
Kingdom

Nation-state

Global
governance

Economy

Hunting and
gathering

Settled
agriculture

Industrial
system

Globalization

Communications

Language

Writing

Printing

Internet

Fertility
1. Context
2. Growth Rates
3. Doubling Time

Distribution of population across regions?

http://www.newint.org/issue309/Images/population.gif

Context
Definition
Births minus Deaths
Positive migratory balance

Process during which the population of an

area increases.
Related to a complex economic, cultural
and social environment.
Two factors:
(1) Number of births exceeds the number
of deaths.
(2) Migration flow is positive.

Population Growth

Society
Economy
Culture

Expressed in percentages.
Birth rate of 20 per 1000 people.
Death rate of 10 per 1000 people.
Growth rate of 10 people per year per
1000 population, or 1%.

World Population Clock

Natural Increase
per

More Developed
Countries

Less Developed
Countries

Less Developed
Countries (less
China)

World

Year

80,903,481

916,337

79,987,144

71,675,164

Day

221,653

2,511

219,143

196,370

154

152

136

Minute

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2003 World Population Data Sheet.

Top ten contributors to world population growth,

1995-2000

Annual Increase in World Population

Millions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, 2003.

Age Distribution of the Worlds Population

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Less Developed
Regions

More Developed
Regions
Age

Male

Female

80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
17-19
10-16
5-9
0-4

Male

Female

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Uncontrolled Growth Rates?

Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction

Average number of children per woman

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Largest Cities, Worldwide

Millions

1950

2000

2015

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

Population in Countries With Low Fertility

Decline or Growth, 2002-2025
Percent

Country (average number of children per woman)

China (1.8)
South Korea (1.4)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
Italy (1.2)
Russia (1.1)
Bulgaria (1.1)

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

10 Places With the Lowest Birth Rates Worldwide

Average number of children per woman, 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Trends in Population Growth Worldwide

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Percent increase per year

Millions

Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

Women of Childbearing Age

Number of Women 15 to 49
Billions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Context
Reasons for huge population growth
Achieved death control more effectively then birth control.
Modern medicine:
Vastly decreased the number of deaths from many diseases (malaria,
yellow fever, etc.).

Famine:
Reduced through better agriculture, distribution, storage and by
international aid mechanisms.

Infant mortality:
Decreased in most areas.

Improvement in the availability and quality of the water supply:

Improved hygiene conditions.
Decreased deaths caused by water borne diseases.

Context
Birth control has been more difficult to achieve

Religious beliefs.
Cultural traditions.
The importance of children as help, labor and security.
The role of women is very limited in many societies.

Impact of Religious Beliefs?

Growth Rates
High growth
High

2% and above.
Characteristic of many Third
World countries.

Average growth

2.0%

Average
1.0%

Low
0.0%

ZPG

Between 1 and 2%.

Much of Latin America and parts
of Asia, including China.

Low growth
Between 0 and 1%.
Europe, the United States and
Canada are currently in this
range.

Zero population growth (ZPG)

Less than 0%.
Several European countries.

Population Growth Rate, 2000

Not Available
Less than 0%
0% to 0.5%
0.5% to 1.0%
1.0% to 1.5%
1.5% to 2.5%
More than 2.5%

Population Change between 2000 and 2050 (%)

3 Scenarios of Global Population Growth, 2005-2050

Population of Russia, Japan Italy, 1950-2050 (in

millions)

Doubling Time
Definition
Length of time necessary for an area (usually a nation) to double
its population.
The mathematics of population work very much like
compounding interest.
Percentage of increase is applied to an ever-increasing base.
Simple equation: 72 / Growth rate.

Implications
The faster the growth rate the lower the doubling time:
1% growth rate: 72 years.
4% growth rate: 19 years.
Infinite doubling time: no growth or negative growth.

Doubling Time as of 2000

More than 250 years

100 to 250 years
50 to 100 years
25 to 50 years
Less than 25 years
ZPG
NA

Fertility
1. Crude Birth Rate
2. Total Fertility Rate
3. Factors Influencing Fertility

Crude Birth Rate

25 males of any age
25 females of any age
10 children born that year

1,000

30
CBR = 30

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) or

General Fertility Rate (GFR)
Number of live births per year per
1000 population.
Both males and females are
considered.
All the population is considered,
even the non-reproductive segment
(children, elderly).
Numbers like 10, 20, 40, etc.

Total Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
25 females between 15-49
10 children born that year

1,000

60
TFR = 2.04
= (60/1,000) * (49-15)

Number of live births per female of

reproductive age (15-49).
Numbers such as 2.2, 4.5.
Indicates population change over a
long period of time.
Instructive about societal norms in any
given culture.
A TFR of 2.1 is considered as being
the replacement birth rate.
Lower than 2.1 yields population
decrease while rates greater than 2.1
yields population increase.
Improvements in medical conditions
lower the replacement rate (below
2.06 in many countries).

Total Fertility Rate, 1994-2000

Replacement rate (2.1)

Total Fertility Rate, 1999

1.14 - 1.50
1.51 - 2.00
2.01 - 2.50
2.51 - 3.00
3.01 - 4.00
4.01 - 7.41
NA

Factors Influencing Fertility

Biological
Determinants

Social
Determinants

Fertility

Economic
Determinants

Factors Influencing Fertility

Biological determinants
Age:
Reproductive age of women ranges from 15-44 or from 15-49.
Men: 13-??

Health and nutrition:

Poor health and/or nutrition can reduce fertility.
Linked with underweight children.
Linked with child mortality rates.

Environment:
Represents an undocumented impacts on fertility.
Stressed populations tend to have less males than females.
Possible correlation between sperm count and pollution.

Birth Rate per Age Group, United States, 1965, 1999

(per 1,000 women)

Average Sperm Count of Americans, 1938-98 (per ml)

Factors Influencing Fertility

Social determinants
The social norms and acceptance of practices affecting fertility.
Differ from society to society.
Marriage:
Particularly the average age of marriage.
The percentage of people never married varies spatially and affects
fertility rates.
Late marriage age generally involves less children.

Contraception:
Used by 30-50% of all married couples.
Availability of contraceptive devices and social attitudes toward their use
affect fertility rates.
Sharp differences exist between DCs and LDCs.
Some notable exceptions, such as China and Cuba.

Factors Influencing Fertility

Abortion:
Last resort measure when contraception failed (or was not used).
Its legality is not universal and under challenge in some countries where it
is permitted.
Global figures (1999):
210 million pregnancies.
22% of all pregnancies end up in a abortion.
46.2 million abortions, of which 20 million procedures are obtained illegally.

Illegal abortions are common in most societies where it is prohibited.

Culture plays an important determining role in the impact of abortion.
United States: 49% all pregnancies unwanted and about half of unwanted
pregnancies ended in abortion (1.4 million abortions per year).

Pregnancies and Abortions per Women Aged 15-19

Years, 1998

Factors Influencing Fertility

Economic determinants
The role of children, or their value affects fertility.
Inverse relationships:
Fertility and income per capita.
Fertility and urbanization.

Traditional rural societies:

Children still play an important economic role and contribute to family
wealth.
Fertility is likely to remain higher.

Industrial and post-industrial societies:

Costs tend to increase with the development level of the society.
Deflate the fertility rate since parents must consider the direct and
opportunity costs of bearing additional children.

Factors Influencing Fertility

Direct costs lost:
For the support of children.
Food, clothing, housing, education, etc.

Opportunity costs lost:

Lower standard of living.
Reduce the ability to save and invest.
Labor force participation of women is affected by child-bearing.

Mortality

1. Crude Death Rate

2. Infant Mortality Rate
3. Life Expectancy
4. Epidemiological Transition

Crude Death Rate

25 males of any age
25 females of any age
10 people who died that year

Death rate
Easiest of the variables to
consider.
Occurs just once per person and is
the most recorded.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

Annual number of deaths per 1000
population (all ages included).

1,000

30
CDR = 30

Crude Death Rate

Causes of death
Throughout most of history famine, epidemics, and wars have
been the leading causes of death.
Primary causes of death began to shift to degenerative problems
related to aging.
These include such factors as heart disease and cancer.

Death and welfare

Used to be considered a sign of the health of a population.
Different age structures among the populations of different
countries.
Possible for a nation with high living standards to have a higher
death rate than a poorer nation.
Reason: overall older population.

Crude Death Rate, 2000

Less than 5.00

5.01 - 8.00
8.01 - 10.00
10.01 - 12.00
12.01 - 15.00
More than 15.00
NA

Fertility and Mortality in the United States, 19502000 (in 1000s)

Infant Mortality Rate

Definition
Expressed in numbers of deaths of infants under one year per
1000 live births of the same year.
Also considers the death of children under 5 per 1000 in their
cohort.
High levels of infant mortality pull down life expectancy rates.
Reflects the quality of the health system.
Very strong differences between developed and developing
countries.

Infant Mortality Rate, 2000

Less than 6.00

6.01 - 10.00
10.01 - 20.00
20.01 - 50.00
50.01 - 100.00
More than 100.00
NA

Causes of Death for Children under 5 in Developing

Countries

Life Expectancy
Definition
Number of years a person is expected to live.
Based on current death rates.
May change due to ameliorations in standards of living.

Context

Strong geographical variations in life expectancy.

Half a century ago, most people died before the age of 50.
Global average life expectancy reached 65 years in 2000.
Several achievements and failures:
Economic development has benefited human health.
Improvement in diet and sanitation.
Urbanization may have adverse effects.

Life Expectancy at Birth, 1910 and 1998

World Average Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy in

Industrial and Developing Nations, 1950-2000

% of Men and Women Expected to Survive to Age 80,

by Region (Among people born 1995-2000)

Yearly Cost of a $1,000,000 Life Insurance Premium,

2001

Life Expectancy
Optimum life expectancy
Life expectancy is ultimately dictated by human physiology:
At some points, organs cease to function properly.
Limit on the lifespan of non-cancerous human cells.

Nearing life expectancy limits:

Even if age-related diseases such cancer, heart disease, and stroke were
eradicated, life expectancy would only increase by 15 years.
Currently around 76 years.
Expected to reach 85 years in most developed countries by 2030.

Epidemiological Transition
Definition
Focuses on changes over time in the causes of mortality
affecting certain populations:
Health conditions.
Disease patterns.

Result in a decline in death rates and an increase of life

expectancy.
The society goes through a transition from communicative
diseases to degenerative diseases.

Epidemiological Transition
Stages
Communicative Diseases
High Fertility
High Mortality

30 years

Receding Pandemics
High Fertility
Decreasing Mortality

50 years

Degenerative and Man-made Diseases

Low Fertility
Low Mortality

70 years

Three identifiable stages in the

transition.
1) Age of communicative
diseases.
2) Age of receding pandemics.
3) Age of degenerative and manmade diseases.

Population Profiles
1. Population Pyramid
2. Dependency Ratio
3. Sex Structure

Population Pyramid
Definition
Age group
75+
60-75

Males

45-60

Females

30-45
15-30
0-15

10
0
10
Percentage of the population

Graph showing the breakdown of

each sex by age group (cohort).
Illustrates a nations population
structure.
Shows the male/female
composition of the population.
Most of the time, the breakdown
involves 5 years periods.

Population Pyramid of Mexico, 2000

Population Pyramid of Sweden, 2000

Population Pyramid
Mexican pyramid
Much wider base than the others.
Beginning of transition.
Rapidly growing population where the percentage of people
under 15 years of age is high.

Swedens pyramid
Does not appear to be a pyramid at all.
Youngest component is smaller than its middle-aged population
and only slightly larger than its aged population.
No-growth situation, since some deaths occur from all age
groupings.
Sweden has a higher death rate than Mexico.

Population Pyramid of the United States, 2000

Population Pyramid
USA pyramid
Lies in between the two situations mentioned above.
Would be more like the Swedish pyramid were it not for large
amounts of immigration.
Bulge in the 30-54 year old component:
The baby boom generation.

Small numbers in the 55-65 year old component:

Low birth rates during the 1930s and during WW II.

Dip in 20-29 segment of the population:

Low birth rates during the 1970s and early 1980s.
Limited immigration.

Preponderance of women at the top of the pyramid, an indication

of their longer average life span.

Population Pyramid, Berlin 1946

Population Pyramid
German pyramid
Shows the most extreme example of population decline.
Vast difference between males and females in the upper age
groups.
Vast number of military casualties among the population which
fought the 2nd World War.

Dependency Ratio
Definition
Comparison between the productive and non-productive
population.
Often expressed in non-productive per 100 productive.
Non-productive population:
Refers to the very old (usually >65 years of age) and the very young
(usually <15).
Considered to be the non-productive segments of society because they
are not part of the labor force.

Productive years:
Between 15 and 65.
This portion of the population constitutes the labor force.
Revised to consider lower than 20 years in developed countries
(increasing time spent for education).

Dependency Ratio
Implications
Society incurs costs in supporting its dependent population.
Old age generates social costs:
Retirement benefits.
Increased medical expenditures.
Greater consumption of other social services.

Youths:
Not yet in the work force.
Some medical costs.
Great expenditures for education.

National budgets often reflect these expenditures.

Linked with the population pyramid:
Pyramidal distributions have high dependency ratios.
Rectangular distributions have high dependency ratios.
Transitional pyramids have low dependency ratios.

Dependency Ratio of some Countries, 1990-1999 (per

100)

Dependency Ratio
Aging
Major shift in health issues.
1995: 380 million people aged 65 years and above.
2020: over-65 population is projected to increase globally by
82%, to more than 690 million.
For every baby born today in an industrialized country, there are
10 people aged 65 or over.
By the year 2020 there will be 15 such elderly persons for each
newborn.
In developing countries, the ratio today is 2 people over 65 for
every newborn, and 4 for every newborn by 2020.

Population 60 and Over, Industrial and Developing

Countries, 1950-95, With Projections to 2050

Percentage of the Population between 15 and 65,

2000

Less than 50.00

50.01 - 55.00
55.01 - 58.00
58.01 - 60.00
60.01 - 65.00
More than 65.00
NA

Dependency Ratio
Impacts

Social security costs.

Medical costs and the medical industry at large.
Public sector funds such as the federal budget.
Goods and services used by the elderly experience increasing
demand levels.
Those used by the young and/or middle aged will decline in
relative importance.
Local impacts (school districts).

Sex Structure
Definition
Gender composition of a population.
Males / Females * 100.
Probability:
Approximately equal probability of male and female births.
Normally expect sex ratios to remain very close to 100.
This is often not the case.

Factors
Life expectancy at birth is greater for females (79 years) than for
males (72).
Gap has increased steadily since 1920, when the difference was
just one year.

Sex Ratio (males per 100 females), 2000

Less than 90
90 - 95
95 - 100
100 - 105
105 - 110
More than 110
NA

Sex Ratio in the United States, 1820-2000 (males per

100 females)

WWI
WWII
Civil War

Immigration Boom
Life expectancy gap
Immigration Boom

Population Capacity
1. Population Density
2. Population Distribution
3. Population Capacity

Population Density
Arithmetic density

AD = P / A
Arable land

PD = P / AL

Relates the size of a population (P) to

the area which contains it (A).
Number of people per square mile or
square kilometer.
Without regard to the productive
quality of the area.
Distributional imbalances.

Physiological density
Number of people per unit of
productive land.
Productive is generally equated with
arable land (AL).
Important figure to measure
sustainability.

Density Measures for Selected Countries, 1995 (in

people per square mile)

Population Distribution
Definition
Considers the distribution of population densities over the earths
surface.
Informative in assessing a nations population.
Typical concentrations along major river systems.
Areas of great concentration:

South Asia.
East Asia.
Western Europe.
Northeastern North America.

Empty areas are attributed to:

Harsh physical landscapes.
Harsh temperature.

World Population Density and Distribution, 1995

Population Capacity
How many people can be
sustained by the Earth?

Space

Consumption

Technology

Resources

Based on human choices and

natural constraints.
Maximum density.
Quantity of arable land.
Agricultural technology.
Harvesting the ocean.
Human facilities.
Availability of resources (energy,
construction materials, etc.).

Population Capacity
Demographic capacity
Studies about natures capacity to support human life go back
many centuries.
Leeuwenhoek (1679) extrapolated densities for Holland to the
whole planet (13.4 billion capacity).
Focus:

Space.
Energy requirements.
Non-renewable resources.
Photosynthetic potentials.

All are based on the same principle:

Tracing resource and energy flows through the human economy.

Population Capacity
Ravenstein in 1891
Arable land
X
Agricultural
technology

/
Consumption
per capita

Concept of carrying capacity.

Focused on the earths cultivable
areas, and their potential productivity
given increases in yields over time:
Fertile: 200 people / km2.
Steppe: 10 people / km2.
Desert: 1 person / km2.

Figure of 6 billion people as the

number Earth could sustain without
lowering living standards.
Reached this number in 1999.

Population Capacity
Contemporary issues
Events such as the Green Revolution were not foreseen by
Ravenstein.
Managed to increase agricultural yields in many areas by
quantities far greater than he had anticipated.
Efforts to calculate carrying capacity have largely failed.
Too many variables.
Value ranges between 4 and 16 billion.

Population Capacity
Level of consumption
Alternative perspective.
The issue is not resource supply, but
resource demand.
The world is producing only a finite
number of resources for consumption.
Demographic capacity is linked with level
of resource consumption.

American (lifetime)

1 million kg of atmospheric waste.

10 million kg of liquid waste.
1 million kg of solid waste.
700,000 kg of minerals.
24 billion BTU of energy.
25,000 kg of plants.
2,000 animals (28,000 kg).