School of Agricultural

&
Resource Economics
Seminar Program
September 27, 2013

GO
DOCKERS!

The growing energy and

carbon footprint of
Chinas changing diet
PhD candidate research proposal
Jacob Hawkins
September 27, 2013
Supervisors: Chunbo Ma
Steven Schilizzi

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Who will feed China?

Lester Brown, World Watch Institute,

1995

Highly criticized and controversial

Posited China would be unable

to provide for its own
population, without taking
away from the rest of the
world

Questioned existing food projections

Standard methods

Accounting

Assumptions

Chinas changing diet

Since 1978, Chinas economy grown rapidly, ~10% annually

Hundreds of millions rising from poverty to middle class over the next
two decades

Increasing demand for greater quantities of food, specifically for

higher quality foods:

Meat

Dairy

Fresh fruits and vegetables

Per capita food consumption

rivaling Western nations

Consumption implications

Research on Chinas growing food consumption:

Arable land (Naylor, Steinfeld et al. 2005, Pimentel 2011)

Water supply (Guan and Hubacek 2007, Hubacek, Guan et al.

2009)

Research on Chinas increasing energy demands:

Energy intensity (Ma and Stern 2008, Zhao, Ma et al. 2010)

CO2 emissions (Liu, Geng et al. 2012, Su and Ang 2012)

Research gap:
What role does Chinese food consumption have in
energy demand and CO2 production?

Greenhouse gas
emissions by sector

(Source: Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2, fast track 2000 project)

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Problem statement
Chinas growing food consumption is anticipated to
increase overall energy demand and CO2 emissions
domestically and internationally.
It is unclear, however, how increased consumption
of higher quality foods will further increase energy
requirements and CO2 production.

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Project Aims

Determine the increased energy demand and CO2 emissions

Domestic production

International imports

Based on increased
food consumption,
specifically:

Fruit

Vegetables

Dairy

Meat

Project Objectives

Answer the questions of:

1. How will Chinas continued economic growth alter the diet and food
consumption patterns of its population?
2. How will Chinas changing diet directly and indirectly affect energy
demands and resultant CO2 emissions?
3. How will Chinas changing diet affect the energy demands and emissions
of the key nations responsible for Chinas agricultural imports?

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Determinants of Chinas
dietary change

Literature review

Evaluating the drivers of dietary change

Economic, cultural, technological, structural

Assessment of methods and assumptions

Quantify determinants

Synthesized from existing literature

Develop a range of scenarios

Level of detail specific for later stages of

this research

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Modelling direct and

indirect effects

Input-output model using:

China NBS 2007 input-output tables (135 sectors)

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022

China NBS 2012 China Energy Statistical Yearbook

LBNL 2013 China Energy Databook

IPCC 2006 GHG Guidelines

Stage 1 determinants used to estimate technical

coefficients for 2022

Supplemented with computable general equilibrium

(CGE) modelling

Input-output model

Selected food
projection scenarios

Industry sectors
disaggregated

Final demand
changed based on
projections

Solve for new

intermediate
demands

Sample

Energy and CO2

projections

Linking physical units of energy and CO2 emissions with

the projected changes in food consumption

Joules or BTUs

Tons of CO2

Examination of effects on energy and CO2 emissions

under different scenarios

Entire food industry

Individual food industry sectors

Distinguishing the implications of the changing diet from

overall increased food consumption

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Chinas top agricultural

import suppliers

(Source: GTIS, Global Trade Atlas database, USITC Mar 2011)

International implications

Chinas top 5 import suppliers of agricultural imports

United States

Brazil

Argentina

European Union

Australia

Stage 2 models expanded to multi regional input-output/CGE models

to incorporate Chinas agricultural import suppliers

GTAP 8 Database or 2005 OECD input-output tables

Physical units of energy and emissions linked to international impacts

Presentation outline

Background

Problem statement

Aims and objectives

Methodology and data

Stage 1 Determinants of dietary change

Stage 2 Chinas projected food energy and CO2

Stage 3 Imported food energy demand and CO2

Work products and outcomes

Working papers

Paper 1

Paper 2

Quantification of the determinants of Chinas changing diet synthesized

from the body of literature

Evaluation of how the changes in Chinas diet will affect energy supplies and
CO2 emissions under different food consumption scenarios

Paper 3

Presentation of the changes to international energy sectors and the

geospatial distribution of physical energy demand and CO 2 generation
associated with Chinas changing diet in its top agricultural import suppliers

Expected outcomes

China diligent about securing its food supply

Agriculture only 3% of Chinas imports, yet comprised 9% of the global

agricultural trade

Ukraine leasing China up to 3 million hectares of land (5% of Ukraine)

U.S. pork producer, Smithfield Foods, purchased by Chinese firm

Shuanghui Intl for $7.1 billion

China will not starve the world to feed itself

Chinas energy demand and CO2 emissions increasing

What will the implications of Chinas changing diet

be on energy and CO2, both domestically and
internationally?

Any questions?