Divided Korea:

Genesis of a Nuclear Flashpoint

Whence the Axis of Evil?

Two Koreas
Today

South Korea
GDP Per Capita
$20,400
Military Expenses
$21.06 billion
Military as share of
GDP 2.6%
Population 48,846,823
Infant mortality
6.16 deaths/1,000 live
births

North Korea
GDP Per Capita
$1,800
Military Expenses
$5.21 Billion
Military as share of
GDP 31%
Population 23,113,019
Infant Mortality
23.29 deaths/1,000 live
births

Geography

Geography

Division roughly
along the 38th
Parallel
North Korea:
Communist, antiAmerican
South Korea:
Capitalist, proAmerican

Korean History

1910 Japanese Annexation

Western and US Complicity

Taft-Katsura Agreement

Domestic Independence Movements

March 1st Movement, 1919

Independence Movements in Exile

US Based: Syngman Rhee

China and Soviet Based: Kim Il Sung

Korean History

Repression under Japan

Japanese Language
Japanese Names
Japanese Education
Forced labor and military service,
Comfort Women

WW II in Korean History

World War II

Pearl Harbor

US Plan: Germany first, then

Japan

WW II in Korean History

Cairo Conference: 1943

Korea to be occupied

Korean Independence in due

time

WW II in Korean History

Yalta Conference:

Feb. 411, 1945

USSR to join war on Japan 3 months after
German surrender
USSR to participate in occupation of Korea

Potsdam Conference

July 17Aug. 2, 1945

Yalta Conference arrangements for Korea
Confirmed

WW II in Korean History

August 6, 1945, Atom bomb on Hiroshima

August 8, 1945, Russians enter the war
against Japan, fulfilling their Yalta Conference
agreement
August 9, 1945, Atom bomb on Nagasaki
August 10/11, 1945 (about midnight), young
colonels, Dean Rusk and Charles Bonesteel,
under orders from Gen. McArthur, draw a
division line at the 38th parallel, keeping the
capital city, Seoul, in the American area.
August 15, 1945, Japan Surrenders.

Cold War History: Korea

USA/USSR tensions emerge almost at

once

USA envisions capitalist democracy

USSR envisions communist government

South Korean History

October, 1945

Syngman Rhee
returned to South
Korea from the US
Welcomed as a
nationalist
resistance leader
by US leadership.

North Korean History

October, 1945

Kim Il Sung
returns to North
Korea from
Manchuria
Welcomed by
Soviets as a
nationalist
resistance leader

Cold War History: US

Containment
1947

George Kennan
writes Mr. X article
Coins term and
policy of
Containment

Two Koreas

Emerging Cold War conflict between USA

and USSR
Joint elections impractical
Two separate Korean Governments
established
1948 Elections in both North and South
Korea

Two Koreas

Republic of Korea

(South)

Syngman Rhees
Government 19481960
Pro-American
Capitalist
Anti-communist
Pro Christian
Authoritarian
Corrupt
Inept

Democratic
Peoples Republic
of Korea (North)
Kim Il Sungs
Government 19481994
Pro-Soviet / ProChinese
Anti-American
Communist
Becomes anti-religion
Authoritarian
Isolationist

Korean War

January 12, 1950

United States Secretary of
State Dean Acheson
US Press Club: RE:
America's Pacific defense
perimeter
Implies that the U.S. might
not fight over Korea
This omission encouraged
the North and the Soviets

Korean War

War begins June 25, 1950: North Korea

Invades
Incheon landing, September 15 September 28, 1950
Chinese entry, October, 1950
January 4, 1951, Communist Chinese and
North Korean forces recapture Seoul.
MacArthur was removed from command by
President Truman on April 11, 1951.
Stalemate, July, 1951

Korean Division

Originally 38th
parallel

Post Korean
War: Red line
called the DMZ

Korean War Ends

Cease Fire July 27, 1953

Neither Korea Signed Armistice
State of war continues
Both Koreas considered themeslves
the only legitimate authority
Both Koreas had aurhoritarian
dictatorships at least through 1987

Post Korean War History

South Korea: 40,000 US troops

remain to guard South Korea

US supports pro American authoritarian

regimes

North Korea: Chinese troops leave

North argues that South Korea is an

occupied country, not independent
North sees US troops as a threat

South Korean History

South Korea

Corruption, incompetence, and

cheating on elections leads to
Syngman Rhees departure 1960

Military Coup brings Military to power

in South Korea

South Korean History

Park Chung Hee

leads South Korea

Military Dictator
Harsh discipline
Anti-communist
Economic
development for
national security
Fantastic economic
growth
Terrible human
rights

North Korean History

Kim Il Sung in North

Korea
Juche Ideology

National
independence

Aligned with USSR and

China
Plays them off against
each other until 1991
Standard pattern of
brinksmanship to get
what he wants

North Korea

North Korea sees 40,000 US troops on its

southern border as a major threat

South Korea is simply a colony of the US.

NO need to work with SK, it is the US that
matters.

Develops Juche ideology of independence

Economic independence
Military independence
Focus on Peoples needs

In reality, Juche is a failure both in independence

and in Peoples needs.

North Korea

Authoritarian

Anti religious persecution

Inefficient production, very little

economic growth

Becomes progressively less secure as

South Korea outgrows the North

North Korea

Cold War ends

Communist Block Collapses 1991
North Korea cant play China and Russia
against each other
South Korean President Roh Tae Woo
(1988-1993) launches Norde Politic
drive and normalizes relations with
China and Russia, Isolating North Korea

Northern Crisis

Isolated North Korea has difficulty

feeding its population

Bad weather
Communist incentive structure
Poor distribution
No more cheap resources from China and
Russia
25-30% of GDP spent on military

Nuclear Crisis

North Korea launches Nuclear program, 1990

1994: NK Withdraws from membership with
International Atomic Energy Agency

Jimmy Carter visits Korea representing Clinton

Administration

1994 Agreed Framework negotiated

N. Korea gives up nuclear weapons for energy

support
Korean Economic Development Organization
(KEDO) formed to help N. Korean energy
development.

Relevant History

Kim Il Sung dies in 1994

Kim Jong Il succeeds his

father and continues his

fathers government patterns

US and most experts

expected North Korea to
collapse under economic
strains and leadership
transition.

Nuclear Crisis

1994 Agreed Framework

DPRK's nuclear power plants would

be replaced with light water reactor
(LWR) power plants by a target
date of 2003.
Oil for heating and electricity
production would be provided while
DPRK's reactors were shut down,
until completion of the first LWR
power unit.

Nuclear Crisis

1994 Agreed Framework

The two sides would move toward full

normalization of political and economic
relations.
The U.S. would provide formal assurances to
the DPRK, against the threat or use of nuclear
weapons by the U.S.
The DPRK would take steps to implement the
Korean Peninsula Denuclearization
Declaration.

Nuclear Crisis

1994 Agreed Framework

The DPRK would remain a party to the

Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
IAEA ad hoc and routine inspections would
resume for facilities not subject to the freeze.
Existing spent nuclear fuel stocks would be
stored and ultimately disposed of without
reprocessing in the DPRK.
DPRK would come into full compliance with its
safeguards agreement with the IAEA

Nuclear Crisis

US compliance with Agreed

Framework is spotty

North Korea doesnt get

adequate energy

NK continues pattern of
brinksmanship to improve
their position

South Korean Response

President Kim Dae

Jung (1998-2003)
Initiates Sunshine
Policy

Attempts for the

first time to engage
NK with positive
incentives
Negotiates some
trade and family
exchanges

Axis of Evil and

Bush Doctrine

2002 State of the Union President

Bush includes North Korea in Axis
of Evil with Iraq and Iran

Iraq Invasion

President Bush declares the Bush

Doctrine of preemptive war

US invades Iraq

North Korean Reaction

2003 Withdraw from Nuclear

Non-proliferation Treaty

Declares NK a nuclear power

Insists on addressing only US,

not 6-party talks

South Korean Response

President Roh Moo

Hyun (2003--)
Continues
Sunshine policy

Disagrees with
Bush administration
on hard line
approach

Conclusions

North Koreas Nuclear threat derives

from North Korean perception of
insecurity

Koreas division created that insecurity

North Korea sees US as the core threat

(40,000 US troops aimed at them)

Bush Doctrine and US behavior since

2001 reinforces perception of threat

Conclusions

North Korean leadership is NOT crazy

nor suicidal

North Korea uses aggressive

negotiating tactics to achieve its ends

North Korea is unlikely to USE nuclear

weapons

Panic or over-reaction to North Korean

provocations are counterproductive