Computer Application in

Finance
Nathridee Suppakitjarak, Ph.D.
JOY
Mahittrathibet 10th Floor
Banking and Finance Department

Classroom

Dress properly
Name Tag
Participation 3%
Exercise in Class
Quiz 2-3 times
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Financial Forecasting
STEP 1 : COMMONSIZE STATEMENT
PROPORTION TO SALES
STEP 2: Average the proportion.
STEP 3: Broad meeting: Agreement
with the NUMBER (Forecasting FACT
ORs)
STEP 4 : Set up
Assumption(Forecasting Factors)
STEP5: Forecast

Calculation in Forecasting
STEP5(cont): Forecast 2 calculations,
Proportion to Sales (x% to sales): x% *
Sales
X% growth from Y (last year):
y*(1+x%)

Version 1 : Unbalanced
Source of Fund REMAIN THE SAME :
STD, LTD, Shareholders equity

We will use STD to balance the Unbalance

sheet
AGGRESSIVE STRATEGY =STD

Financing
Matching Strategy

LT A vs LTD , STA vs STD

Aggressive Strategy
strategy
Finance

we pursue this

LTA with STD

Conservative Strategy
Finance

STA with LTD

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Version 2
LTD is held constant and the balance
sheet is balanced by varying STD, wh
ich can go negative (that is, it is not
constrained to being zero or positive)
Cost of Sales change from 52% to
50%
PP&E gross change from 11% to 8%
Other non current Asset change
from 10% to 8%
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Version 3
STD used as plug but is not allowed
to go negative.
Cash is used to pay STD
Once all STD is paid off, any
additional cash is used to build C&MS
.
Minimum for C&MS is zero
LTD is still held constant.
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 STD=sum of all asset except C&MS Sum

of all liability and shareholders equity
except STD

STD=MAX(STD,0)
C&MS=Total liabilities and
shareholders equity sum of all asse
t except C&MS
Minimum level of C&MS
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Capital structure
Debt Equity Ratio
30:70

STD: LTD
40:60

Stock issuance/(buy back)

Last year SE (This yr SE + RE this

year)
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 Buy back /issue share

Calculate Stock price per share

12

Dividend payout
Management is willing to go up to a
dividend payout ratio of 40%
Impose additional condition that
dividend per share will not increased
by more than 10% in any year.

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Cash Flow
1. OPERATING ACTIVITIY =
-NET INCOME+DEP. + WORKING
CAPITAL (WC)
where, WC CHANGE IN CA & CL
2. INVESTING ACTIVITY = Change in LT
asset
3. FINANCING ACTIVITY
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Sensitivity Analysis
Only 1 or 2 Variables change.
Sale growth rate change from 1%,2%,.,
10%
What will be Net Income, EPS, DPS, Stock
Price
In year 2012
DATA TABLE
Sale growth & Cost of sales to sale ratio
COS 48%,49%,..,52%. EBIT in Year 2012
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Scenario Analysis
BASE CASE
BEST CASE
WORST CASE
Base Case

Best

Worst

5%

7%

3%

COS

50%

49%

51%

SG&A

29%

28%

30%

8%

7%

9%

Sale gr.

Gross PP&E

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