COMBATING PERSISTENT POVERTY

IN AFRICA
BASIS Policy Conference
November 15-16 2004
Washington, D.C.

Chronic Poverty Report 2004-5

BASIS CRSP Policy Conference
Combating Persistent Poverty in Africa
Washington DC, 16 November 2004

David Hulme
Director, Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC)
Professor, Institute for Development Policy and Management,
School of Environment and Development,
University of Manchester

www.chronicpoverty.org

Outline
What is chronic poverty?
Global extent and prevalence
Why focus on the chronically poor?
Who are they?
Where are they?
Why are people chronically poor?
What does this mean for policy?

What is chronic poverty?

Distinguished by extended duration: the chronically poor are those living below
a given poverty line for a long time:
Poor for all or much of their lives,
Pass on poverty to subsequent generations, and/or
Die a preventable, poverty-related death.

Chronically poor are commonly multi-dimensionally deprived. Combinations of

capability deprivation, low levels of material assets, and socio-political marginality
keeps them poor over long periods.
Relationship between poverty severity and poverty chronicity, at both the
country and household level, is complex and only partly understood.

What is chronic poverty?

Chronic poverty is that poverty that is ever
present and never ceases. It is like the rains of the
grasshopper season that beat you consistently
and for a very long time. You become completely
soaked because you have no way out.
Some poverty passes from one generation to
another, as if the offspring sucks it from the
mothers breast. They in turn pass it on to their
children.
- Group of disabled women in Nkokonjeru Providence Home,
Mukono, Uganda (source: Lwanga-Ntale 2003).

Poverty dynamics
Poverty
line
Mean
score

Time

Time

Time

Time

Time

Always poor Usually poor

Fluctuating
Occasionally Never poor
(BPL in each (mean poverty poor (poor in
poor (mean
(APL in all
period)
over all periods some periods poverty APL but periods)
BPL, not poor in but not others, at least 1 period
mean poverty
in poverty)
every period)
around poverty
line)

CHRONICALLY POOR

TRANSITORY POOR

NON POOR

Poverty dynamics vs. poverty trends

Uganda has experienced significant reduction in
poverty: from 1992 to 1999, aggregate national poverty
rate fell by about 20%. But this aggregate poverty trend
tells us nothing about what happened to individual
households.
Poverty trends can mask important poverty dynamics:
about 19% of households were poor in both 1992 and
1999 (the chronically poor),
and while almost 30% of households moved out of
poverty, another 10% moved in (the transitory poor).

This more nuanced understanding of poverty requires

the collection of panel data and life histories alongside
the standard household surveys.

Global extent of chronic poverty

APPROX. 300-420 MILLION CHRONICALLY POOR
South Asia

135-190 m

Highest number of chronically

poor people

Sub-Saharan Africa

90-120 m

Highest prevalence of chronic

poverty (esp. West/ Central
Africa)

China

40-65 m

Significant numbers remain

Rest of East Asia/Pacific

10-20 m

Latin America/ Caribbean

16-23 m

Relatively high proportion of

poor are chronically poor

Europe/Central Asia

2-5 m

Fastest growth rates of

chronic poverty (esp. Central
Asia and Russia)

Middle East/North Africa

3-5 m

Global extent (size) and

prevalence (colour) of chronic poverty

Desperately deprived
Relatively non-deprived

Moderately deprived
Insufficient data

OECD

Deprivation: severe stunting, U5MR, female illiteracy,

probability of not surviving until 40, $1/day poverty headcount

Why focus on the

chronically poor?
The moral case
MDGs, and post-MDGs:
Some MDGs can never be achieved without reaching the
chronically poor.
Other MDGs will be achieved fully or in part by excluding the
chronically poor. The poverty of those left behind post-2015 will
likely be even more intractable.

Grievance-based politics?
By denying the poorest those with least to lose we risk
undermining political and economic stability
Useful for mobilising political commitment and funds, but
remains unproven

Who are the chronically poor?

Discrimination and deprivation
Marginalised ethnic, religious, caste groups, incl.
indigenous, nomadic peoples;
Migrant, stigmatised, bonded labourers;
Refugees, IDPs;
Disabled people;
People with ill-health, esp. HIV/AIDS;
To different extents, poor women and girls.

Household composition, life-cycle position

children;
older people;
widows;

households headed by older people,

disabled people, children, and, in
certain cases, women

Where are the chronically poor?

Understanding spatial poverty traps
Chronic poverty is harshest where spatial
and social deprivation overlap.
REMOTE

Areas far from the centres of economic and political

activity. Far is calculated in terms of distance and
time ( frictional distance).

LOW
POTENTIAL

Areas with low agricultural or natural

resources, often crudely equated with
drylands and highlands.

LESS
FAVOURED

Politically disadvantaged areas

~1.8
billon
people

Areas that are not well-connected, physically and in

WEAKLY
terms of communication and markets. Economically
INTEGRATED disadvantaged areas.

Why are people chronically poor?

Context matters
Causes of chronic poverty sometimes same as causes of
poverty, only more intense, widespread, long-lasting. In
other cases, there is a qualitative difference between the
causes of transitory and chronic poverty, requiring different
policies.
Rarely a single cause most chronic poverty due to
multiple, overlapping, interacting factors operating at
levels from intra-household to global.
Maintainers: factors that keep people in poverty
Drivers: factors that cause people to slide into poverty
traps

Why are people chronically poor?

The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty
Quantity and quality of economic growth
No, low, and narrowly-based growth situations raise the
probability of people being trapped in poverty. But growth is not
almost enough.
For the working chronically poor, sectoral composition of growth
really matters, esp. whether it includes broad-based agricultural
growth and is in sectors with high demand for unskilled labour
The non-working chronically poor are most vulnerable to
economic shocks, because of their dependence on any benefits
from economic growth derived from a mix of private and public
social protection.

Geography and agro-ecology

Geography and agro-ecology combine with social, economic,
political and institutional factors to create spatial poverty traps

Why are people chronically poor?

The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty
Social exclusion and adverse incorporation
Structures of social exclusion (discrimination, stigma, invisibility) are
the basis for processes of adverse incorporation (declining assets,
low wages, job insecurity, minimal access to social protection,
dependency on a patron).
Risk and vulnerability shape social relations: chronically poor people
often manage vulnerability by developing patron-client ties that
produce desirable, immediate outcomes by trading-off longer term
needs and rights.

Cultures of poverty?
Does how people cope with poverty (economically, socially,
psychologically) make poverty more difficult to escape?

High capability deprivation

Not investing in PHC, nutrition, primary education can diminish
opportunities that cant be regained in later life (or by children)

Why are people chronically poor?

The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty

Weak and failed/ing states

Desperate deprivation and increased inequality due to:
State failure social protection and services (e.g. education,
health) do not operate undermining human capital.
Violence, weak rule of law destroys assets and discourages
domestic/foreign investment (except for illegal and extractive
activities) so that growth is low/ negative and not pro-poor.
Low levels of civil and political rights
Poor economic policies

Weak and failing international system

Why are people chronically poor?

The maintainers and drivers of chronic poverty
Severe, widespread and multiple shocks (driver)
along with limited access assets (private/collective)
and a weak institutional context including systems of social protection,
basic services, conflict prevention and resolution, public information
(maintainers)
combine to undermine resilience to shocks, driving people into
chronic poverty.

Property grabbing: No safety net to fall back on after a husbands

death (driver), and discrimination based on gender and marital status

(maintainer) strips away any assets that could be used to bounce
back.
Malawian famine: Bad weather (a shock), bad policy (a failure of
national and international governance), and reduced resilience (due to
e.g. HIV/AIDS, poverty-induced asset depletion) combined to cause
hundreds/thousands, of preventable deaths, and has trapped many
more survivors in intractable poverty.

What can we do about

chronic poverty?
Much chronic poverty reduction is about good
poverty reduction
Peace-building and conflict prevention
HIV/AIDS prevention (especially in India, China and the CIS) and
greater access to retroviral treatment (in Africa)
Pro-poor, broad-based economic growth
Strengthening national and international governance
Making trade fair (especially removing northern agricultural
protectionism)
Effectively managing national indebtedness
Slowing down global warming
Improving the effectiveness of basic service delivery

but it also requires new priorities

What can we do about

chronic poverty?
Prioritise livelihood security:
Increase chronically poor peoples resistance and resilience
to adverse shocks and trends.
Social protection policies are crucial in order to interrupt
downward trajectories and allow opportunities to be pursued
(e.g. non-contributory pensions, insurance, transfers)
Focus on preventing and interrupting childhood poverty
(e.g. interventions in nutrition/health, education, household
security)
Focus on preventing ill-health, and descents into chronic
poverty caused by ill-health (e.g. curative services for
breadwinners and carers)

What can we do about chronic poverty?

Enhance opportunity: Expand and diversify
economic opportunities for chronically poor people
by:
stimulating broad-based growth (e.g. rural;
raised demand for unskilled labour; enhances
human capital)
making markets work for poor people (esp.
labour and food markets), and
redistributing material and human assets (e.g.
land reform; progressive taxation)

What can we do about chronic poverty?

Foster empowerment and make rights real
Enhance the capacity of those trapped in poverty
to influence state institutions that affect their lives.
Remove the political, legal, social barriers that
work against them.
Move beyond rhetoric of participation,
decentralisation and rights.
Address the difficult political question of how
social solidarity can be fostered across
households, communities and nations (e.g.
monitoring of MDG #8).

What can we do about chronic poverty?

National agenda
Delivering basic services: reduce access barriers;
improve service quality; foster demand for services among
the chronically poor
Delivering social assistance: that can have development
as well as relief outcomes requires innovations in
targeting, technology, institutions
Using PRSs to prioritise the chronically poor

International agenda
Using MDGs to address chronic poverty
Financing chronic poverty reduction: increase aid
volume; direct aid to poorest countries, social assistance
and basic services; commit to sustained aid

Cumulative Share of Bilateral Aid (%)

DAC Aid Concentration Curve

for Child Malnutrition (2000-2)
100

Middle income countries

mostly in the Middle East and
North Africa, with small numbers of
malnourished children and which
receive large amounts of aid per
capita

Small, poor countries

mostly in sub-Saharan
Africa and South Asia,
which have high
malnutrition rates and
receive large amounts of
aid per capita

50

India
accounts for 40% of the
worlds malnourished
children but receives just
3.6% of bilateral aid

0
0

China
has a huge population
but a much smaller
share of children are
malnourished than in
India

50

Cumulative Share of Underweight Children (%)

Source: Baulch 2004

100

Aid Concentration Curves for

Child Malnutrition (2000-2)

Source: Baulch 2004

DAC Aid Concentration Curves

Indicators in Comparison (2000-2)
Monetary poverty
Not in Primary School

Child malnutrition

Under 5 Mortality

Source: Baulch 2004