Plant Disease Forecasting; an overview

By

Muhammad Ehetisham-ul-Haq
Instructor Plant Protection,
In-Service Agricultural Training Institute, Sargodha

What is a disease ?
Disease

Biotic

Abiotic

What is a Pathogen ?
PATHOGEN

Monocyclic

Polycyclic

Polyetic

Why we study Plant diseases

Plant are the producers having soul importance in food web.
Diseases, Insects and weeds cause 31-42% losses in crops.
(lower in developed countries and higher in developing countries)

Average estimated losses attributed by diseases, insects and weeds are 36.5%

Post harvest losses (6-12%)

Losses by diseases which are due to environmental factors such as freezes, droughts, air
pollutants, nutrient deficiencies, and toxicities are excluded.

Plant Pathology
Branch of science which concerns with symptomology, etiology, epidemiology and management
strategies of plant diseases.

Plant Disease Epidemiology.

Epidemiology = Study of factors effecting plant disease epidemics.
Epidemic = Change in disease in a population over time and space.

MODEL

MENTAL

TANGIBLE

PHYSICAL

ABSTRACT

QUALITATIVE

QUANTITATIVE

MATHEMATICAL

STATISTICAL

(Edminster,
1978)

Plant disease epidemic Modeling

Better understanding how a disease is progressing.

Comparing the plant disease epidemics.

Easy way of understanding and analyzing and estimating disease losses.

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF EPIDEMICS

In a computer simulation of an epidemic, the computer is given data describing the
various subcomponents of the epidemic and control practices at specific points in time
(such as at weekly intervals).
The computer then provides continuous information regarding not only the spread and
severity of the disease over time, but also the final crop and economic losses likely to be
caused by the disease under the conditions of the epidemic as given to the computer.
EPIDEM was designed to simulate epidemics of early blight of tomato and potato
caused by the fungus Alternaria solani
Cercospora blight of celery (CERCOS)
For Mycosphaerella blight of chrysanthemums (MYCOS),
For southern corn leaf blight caused by Cochliobolus (Helminthosporium) maydis
(EPICORN),
For apple scab caused by Venturia inaequalis (EPIVEN).

PLANT DISEASE EPIDEMICS FORECASTING

Disease forecasting allows the prediction of probable outbreaks or increases in
intensity of disease.
Farmers need forecasts that will help them determine whether a plant infection is
likely to occur so they can decide whether to spray a crop right away or to wait
for several more days before they spray.
If disease forecasting allows them to wait, they can reduce the amounts of
chemicals and labor used without increasing the risk of losing their crop.

NEW TOOLS IN EPIDEMIOLOGY

Global positioning system (GPS).

consists of a handheld device that is coordinated with a global system of man-made satellites and, depending
on the accuracy and coordination, provides quite accurate readings of the coordinates of the position of the
device.

GPS enables one to pinpoint an individual tree or a specific area or areas of the field that are affected by a
pathogen, which then can be visited and examined again periodically for incremental advance of the
symptoms.

Geostatistics.

Various geostatistical techniques that are applied in plant disease epidemiology to characterize
quantitatively spatial patterns of disease development or the development of pathogen populations in space
and over time.

Remote Sensing

Remote sensing usually refers to the use of instruments for measuring

electromagnetic radiation reflected or emitted from an object.

Image Analysis

Image analysis refers to photography and electronic image analysis, usually of

large areas of fields or of mountains.

DISEASE-WARNING SYSTEMS
The purpose of these systems is to warn farmers of the impending onset of an
infection period or to inform them that an infection period has already occurred.
Immediate appropriate control measures are adopted to stop recent infections
from developing or prevent further infections from occurring.
In 1970s BLITECAST use centrally located computers that process weather
data either collected on the farm by individual growers and transmitted
electronically or phoned in when certain weather conditions prevail, or at certain
intervals.
The computer then processes the data, determines whether an infection period is
imminent, likely to occur, or cannot occur, and makes a recommendation to the
grower as to whether to spray and what materials to apply.

DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF EXPERT SYSTEMS

Expert systems are computer programs.
Need professional in solving problems.
The dependability of an expert system is proportional to the knowledge of the expert(s) who
produced it.
Expert systems can use data in almost any format and can suggest a solution to the problem.

Diagnosis or management of diseases of tomato (TOM),

Grape (GrapES),
Wheat (CONSELLOR),
Wheat (MoreCrop)
Peach and nectarine (CALEX),
The Penn State apple orchard consultant (PSAOC),

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

Decision support system (DSS) is supposed to collect, organize, and integrate all
types of information related to the production of a crop, to subsequently analyze
and interpret the information, and to eventually recommend the most appropriate
action or action choices.
Numerous DSS systems available are aimed to assist practitioners.
WISDOM for potatoes by the University of Wisconsin.
RADAR for apples by the University of Maine.
PAWS for several crops by the Washington State University.

Publications

Ali, M. I., M. A. Khan, A. Rashid, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M. T. Javed, and M. Sajid. 2012.

Epidemiology of Okra Yellow Vein Mosaic Virus (OYVMV) and Its Management through Tracer,
Mycotal and Imidacloprid. American Journal of Plant Sciences. 3(12):1741-5

Sajid, M., A. Rashid, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M. T. Javed, H. Jamil, M. Mudassir, M. Farooq, F.

Ahmad, M. Latif, M. A. Chohan, M. Ahmad, and A. Kamran. 2013. In vitro evaluation of chemicals
and plant extracts against colony growth of Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. malvacearum causing
bacterial blight of cotton. European Journal of Experimental Biology. 3(1):617-21.

Rashid, A., M. Shahjahan, M. Inam-ul-Haq, M. Shahid, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, I. H. Waris, M.

Farooq, E. Perveez, and M. Ashraf. 2013.Distribution of black chaff disease of wheat caused by
Xanthomonas campestris pv. translucens in different ecological zones of Pakistan and its
management through plant extracts and bio-products. European Journal of Experimental Biology.
3(4):261-6.

Rashid, A., M. U. Younas, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M. Farooq, I. H. Waris, E. Perveez, F. Ahmad, M.

Ltif, and M. Ahmad. 2013. Screening of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) varieties against Ascochyta
blight and its management through biopesticides. Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection.
2013;DOI: 10.1080/03235408.2013.826540:1-6.

Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and M. Atiq. 2013. Bacterial Seed and Boll Rot: A
New Emerging Threat to Cotton in Pakistan Agrihunt Available at: http://agrihuntcom/pak-agrioutlook/3354-bacterial-seed-and-boll-rot-a-new-emerging-threat-to-cotton-in-pakistanhtml (accessed:
May 2013). 2013.

Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., F. Anjum, S. Hussain, M. A. Khan, A. Rashid, and M. Raza. 2013. Prediction
of cotton seedling germination against pre-emergence damping off on the basis of environmental
factors and seed applied fungicides. Archives of Phytopathology and Plant Protection.

Javed, M. T., M. A. Khan, M. Ehetisham-ul-Haq, and M. Atiq. 2013. Biological management of

bacterial blight of cotton caused by Xanthomonas campestris pv. malvacearum through plant extracts
and homeopathic products. Research Journal of Plant Disease and Pathology.3(1): 1-6.

Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and A. Rashid. 2013. Pathogenic aspects of Pantoea
agglomerans in relation to cotton boll age and Dysdercus cingulatus transmitting seed and boll rot in
cotton
germplasm.
Archives
of
Phytopathology
and
Plant
Protection

Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and A. Rashid. 2013. Management of newly

emerging bacterial seed and boll rot of cotton through chemotherapeutants, homeo-products and plant
extracts. Tropical Agriculture.

Ehetisham-ul-Haq, M., M. A. Khan, M. T. Javed, and A. Rashid. 2013. Epidemiological

characterization of bacterial seed and boll rot of cotton and its vector (Dysdercus cingulatus). Journa
of Plant Disease Epidemiology. 2013.