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Learning Objectives
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Learning Objectives
8.
Correlation Models
9.
10.
Models
What is a Model?
1.
Representation of
Some Phenomenon
Non-Math/Stats Model
2.
Types
-
Deterministic Models
1.
2.
3.
Probabilistic Models
1.
2.
Hypothesize 2 Components
Deterministic
Random Error
Example: Systolic blood pressure of newborns
Is 6 Times the Age in days + Random Error
SBP = 6xage(d) +
Random Error May Be Due to Factors
Other Than age in days (e.g. Birthweight)
EPI 809/Spring 2008
Types of
Probabilistic Models
Probabilistic
Probabilistic
Models
Models
Regression
Regression
Models
Models
Correlation
Correlation
Models
Models
Other
Other
Models
Models
Regression Models
10
Types of
Probabilistic Models
Probabilistic
Probabilistic
Models
Models
Regression
Regression
Models
Models
Correlation
Correlation
Models
Models
Other
Other
Models
Models
11
Regression Models
Relationship between one
dependent
variable and explanatory variable(s)
Use equation to set up relationship
Numerical Dependent (Response) Variable
1 or More Numerical or Categorical Independent
(Explanatory) Variables
12
2.
3.
4.
13
Model Specification
14
2.
15
Model Specification
Is Based on Theory
1.
2.
3.
4.
16
Thinking Challenge:
Which Is More Logical?
CD+ counts
CD+ counts
17
OB/GYN Study
18
Types of
Regression Models
19
Types of
Regression Models
Regression
Models
20
Types of
Regression Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
Regression
Models
Simple
21
Types of
Regression Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
Regression
Models
2+ Explanatory
Variables
Multiple
Simple
22
Types of
Regression Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
Regression
Models
2+ Explanatory
Variables
Multiple
Simple
Linear
23
Types of
Regression Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
Regression
Models
2+ Explanatory
Variables
Multiple
Simple
Linear
NonLinear
EPI 809/Spring 2008
24
Types of
Regression Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
Regression
Models
2+ Explanatory
Variables
Multiple
Simple
Linear
NonLinear
Linear
25
Types of
Regression Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
Regression
Models
2+ Explanatory
Variables
Multiple
Simple
Linear
NonLinear
Linear
NonLinear
26
Linear Regression
Model
27
Types of
Regression Models
Regression
Models
1 Explanatory
Variable
2+ Explanatory
Variables
Multiple
Simple
Linear
NonLinear
Linear
NonLinear
28
Linear Equations
Y
Y = mX + b
m = Slope
Change
in Y
Change in X
b = Y-intercept
29
Population
Slope
Random
Error
Yi 0 1X i i
Dependent
(Response)
Variable
(e.g., CD+ c.)
Independent
(Explanatory) Variable
(e.g., Years s. serocon.)
31
32
Yi 0 1X i i
33
Random Sample
Unknown
Relationship
Yi 0 1X i i
34
Yi 0 1X i i
Random Sample
Yi 0 1X i i
35
Yi 0 1X i i
Observed
value
i = Random error
E Y 0 1 X i
X
Observed value
36
Yi 0 1X i i
^i = Random
error
Yi 0 1X i
Unsampled
observation
X
Observed value
37
Estimating Parameters:
Least Squares Method
38
Scatter plot
1.
20
40
X
60
39
Thinking Challenge
How would you draw a line through the
points? How do you determine which line
fits best?
60
40
20
0
20
40
X
60
40
Thinking Challenge
How would you draw a line through the
points? How do you determine which line
fits best?
Slope changed
60
40
20
0
20
40
X
60
Intercept unchanged
41
Thinking Challenge
How would you draw a line through the
points? How do you determine which line
fits best?
Slope unchanged
60
40
20
0
20
40
X
60
Intercept changed
42
Thinking Challenge
How would you draw a line through the
points? How do you determine which line
fits best?
Slope changed
60
40
20
0
20
40
X
60
Intercept changed
43
Least Squares
1.
44
Least Squares
1.
i 1
2
i
i 1
45
Least Squares
1.
i 1
2
i
i 1
2.
46
2
2
2
2
2
LS minimizes i 1 2 3 4
i 1
Y2 0 1X 2 2
^ 44
^ 22
^ 11
^ 33
Yi 0 1X i
47
Coefficient Equations
Prediction equation
yi 0 1 xi
Sample slope
SS xy xi x yi y
1
2
SS xx
Sample Y - intercept
0 y 1x
EPI 809/Spring 2008
48
i yi 0 1 xi
i 1
2
i
i 1
yi 0 1 xi
2 ny n 0 n1 x
0 y 1x
EPI 809/Spring 2008
49
2 xi yi 0 1 xi
2 xi yi y 1 x 1 xi
1 xi xi x xi yi y
1 xi x xi x xi x yi y
SS xy
1
SS xx
50
Computation Table
Xi
Yi
X1
Y1
X2
Y2
2
Xi
2
X1
2
X2
Yn
2
Xn
2
Yn
XnYn
Yi
2
Xi
2
Yi
XiYi
Xn
Xi
2
Yi
2
Y1
2
Y2
X1Y1
XiYi
X2Y2
51
Interpretation of Coefficients
52
Interpretation of Coefficients
1.
Slope (1)
^
Estimated Y Changes by 1 for Each 1 Unit
Increase in X
^
If 1 = 2, then Y Is Expected to Increase by 2 for
Each 1 Unit Increase in X
53
Interpretation of Coefficients
^
1. Slope (1)
^
Estimated Y Changes by 1 for Each 1 Unit
Increase in X
^
^
2. Y-Intercept (0)
54
(g/1000)
1
2
3
4
5
1
1
2
2
4
EPI 809/Spring 2008
55
Scatterplot
Birthweight vs. Estriol level
Birthweight
Estriol level
EPI 809/Spring 2008
56
Yii
Xii22
Yii22
XiiYii
16
25
16
20
15
10
55
26
37
57
11
nn
X ii
nn
ii11
X
Y
ii ii
n
ii11
nn
ii11
22
ii
nn
Y
ii11
nn
X
ii11
ii
22
ii
1510
37
5
0.70
22
15
55
5
58
Coefficient Interpretation
Solution
59
1.
Coefficient Interpretation
Solution
^
^
Slope (1)
60
1.
2.
Coefficient Interpretation
Solution
^
^
Slope (1)
Intercept (0)
61
62
Parameter Estimation
SAS Computer Output
Parameter Estimates
Variable
DF
Intercept
Estriol
^0
1
1
Parameter
Estimate
-0.10000
0.70000
Standard
Error t Value
0.63509
0.19149
-0.16
3.66
Pr > |t|
0.8849
0.0354
^
1
EPI 809/Spring 2008
63
64
Scattergram
Milk Yield vs. Food intake*
M. Yield (lb.)
10
8
6
4
2
0
10
15
65
Yii
22
Xii
22
Yii
3.0
16
9.00
12
5.5
36
30.25
33
10
6.5
100
42.25
65
12
9.0
144
81.00
108
32
24.0
XiiYii
66
11
nn
X ii
nn
ii11
X
Y
ii ii
n
ii11
nn
ii11
22
ii
nn
Y
ii11
nn
X
ii11
ii
22
ii
32 24
218
4
2
32 2
296
4
0.65
67
Coefficient Interpretation
Solution*
68
Coefficient Interpretation
Solution*
1.
Slope (1)
Milk Yield (Y) Is Expected to Increase by .65
lb. for Each 1 lb. Increase in Food intake ( X)
69
Coefficient Interpretation
Solution*
1.
2.
Slope (1)
Milk Yield (Y) Is Expected to Increase by .65
lb. for Each 1 lb. Increase in Food intake (X)
Y-Intercept (0)
^
^
Average Milk yield (Y) Is Expected to Be 0.8
lb. When Food intake (X) Is 0
EPI 809/Spring 2008
70