Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Objectives of
The Firm, and
Corporate
Governance
1- 2
Topics Covered
What Is A Corporation?
The Role of The Financial Manager
Who Is The Financial Manager?
Separation of Ownership and Management
Corporate Structure
Sole Proprietorships
Unlimited Liability
Personal tax on profits
Partnerships
Limited Liability
Corporations
1- 3
(1)
Financial
manager
Firm's
operations
1- 4
(4a)
(4b)
(3)
(1) Cash raised from investors
(2) Cash invested in firm
(3) Cash generated by operations
(4a) Cash reinvested
(4b) Cash returned to investors
Financial
markets
1- 5
Treasurer
Controller
1- 6
Different Objectives
Managers vs.
stockholders
Top mgmt vs.
operating mgmt
Stockholders vs. banks
and lenders
1- 7
Topics Covered
Introduction to Present Value
Foundations of the Net Present Value
Rule
Corporate Goals and Corporate
Governance
1- 8
1- 9
Discount Factor
Present value of
a Rs.1 future
payment.
1- 10
1- 11
Future Values
Future Value of Rs.100 = FV
FV Rs.100 (1 r )
F
V
R
s.40,(1.05)R
s.420,
Future Values
FV Rs.100 (1 r )
Example - FV
1- 12
Present Value
Present Value = PV
PV = discount factor C1
1- 13
Present Value
Discount Factor = DF = PV of Rs.1
DF
1
(1 r ) t
1- 14
1- 15
PV
C1
(1r )
420
(1.05 )
400
1- 16
1- 17
PV of C1 Rs.420 at 5%
420
PV
400
1 .05
1- 18
PV of C1 Rs.420 at 5%
420
PV
400
1 .05
1- 19
1- 20
p
r
o
f
i
t
4
2
0
,
3
7
0
,
R
eturnivesm
.
1
3
5
o
r
1
3
.
5
%
n
Rate of Return Rule
1- 21
6
0
N
PV
=-5+1.R
s.45
Net Present Value Rule
Example
Suppose we can invest Rs.50 today and receive
Rs.60 in one year. Should we accept the project
given a 10% expected return?
1- 22
cExpeP
E
octadnpafm
lyofR
y
S
u
m
p
N
o
r
m
a
l
B
o
m
sC.
.18080,,110,30,140,140,Rs10,
Opportunity Cost of Capital
Example
You may invest Rs.100,000 today. Depending on
the state of the economy, you may get one of three
possible cash payoffs:
1- 23
e
x
p
c
t
e
d
p
r
o
f
i
t
1
0
9
5
.
6
E
xpectdreuninvsm
1
5
o
r
%
n
Opportunity Cost of Capital
Example - continued
The stock is trading for Rs.95.65. Next years
price, given a normal economy, is forecast at
Rs.110
1- 24
,P
1
0
V
.5R
s.95,60
Example - continued
Discounting the expected payoff at the expected
return leads to the PV of the project
1- 25
e
x
p
c
t
e
d
p
r
o
f
i
t
1
0
,
1
0
,
E
xpectdreuninvsm
.
1
0
o
r
%
n
Opportunity Cost of Capital
Example - continued
Notice that you come to the same conclusion if you
compare the expected project return with the cost
of capital.
1- 26
1- 27
80
60
40
20
40
60
income in period 0
80
100
1- 28
1- 29
194
185
200
1- 30
Rupees
Now
1- 31
1- 32
1- 33
1- 34
Topics Covered
Valuing Long-Lived Assets
PV Shortcuts Perpetuities and Annuities
Compound Interest & Present Values
Nominal and Real Rates of Interest
(inflation)
D
F
1
t(
r)
Present Values
1- 35
D
F
(1r)t
Present Values
C1
PV DF C1
1 r1
1- 36
Present Values
Ct
PV DF C t
t
(1 r )
Replacing 1 with t allows the formula to be
used for cash flows that exist at any point in
time
1- 37
P
V
R
s.2,5702
3(1.08)2
Present Values
Example
You just bought a new computer for Rs.3,000. The
payment terms are 2 years same as cash. If you can earn
8% on your money, how much money should you set aside
today in order to make the payment when due in two
years?
1- 38
P
V
C
C
1
2
(1
r)(1
r)
Present Values
1- 39
P
V
(1.07)1(1207)2265.8
Present Values
1- 40
1- 41
Present Values
Rs.200
Rs.100
Present Value
Year 0
100/1.07
= Rs.93.46
200/1.0772
= Rs.172.42
Total
= Rs.265.88
Year
D
F
.837
.12(027)12
1
Present Values
1- 42
Present Values
Example
Assume that the cash flows
from the construction and sale
of an office building is as
follows. Given a 5% required
rate of return, create a present
value worksheet and show the
net present value.
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
170,000 100,000 320,000
1- 43
1- 44
Present Values
Example - continued
Assume that the cash flows from the construction and sale of an office
building is as follows. Given a 5% required rate of return, create a
present value worksheet and show the net present value.
Period
Discount
Factor
Cash
Flow
Present
Value
0
1
1.0
1
1.05 .952
170, 000
100, 000
170, 000
95, 238
320, 000
290, 249
1
1.05 2
.907
1- 45
Present Values
Example - continued
Assume that the cash flows from the construction and sale of an office
building is as follows. Given a 5% required rate of return, create a
present value worksheet and show the net present value.
+Rs.320,00
0
-Rs.170,000
Rs.100,000
Present Value
Year
0
Year 0
-170,000
= -Rs.170,000
-100,000/1.05 =
Rs.95,238
320,000/1.052 = Rs.290,249
Total = NPV = Rs.25,011
Short Cuts
Sometimes there are shortcuts that make it
very easy to calculate the present value of
an asset that pays off in different periods.
These tolls allow us to cut through the
calculations quickly.
1- 46
Short Cuts
Perpetuity - Financial concept in which a cash
flow is theoretically received forever.
cash flow
Return
present value
C
r
PV
1- 47
Short Cuts
Perpetuity - Financial concept in which a cash
flow is theoretically received forever.
cash flow
PV of Cash Flow
discount rate
C1
PV0
r
1- 48
1- 49
Short Cuts
Year of Payment
1
2..t
t+1
Present Value
C
r
1
C
t
r (1 r )
1
C C
t
r r (1 r )
Short Cuts
Annuity - An asset that pays a fixed sum each
year for a specified number of years.
1
1
PV of annuity C
t
r r 1 r
1- 50
1- 51
1
1
Lease Cost 3000
48
.005 .005 1 .005
Cost Rs.127, 741.0
1- 52
1- 53
Compound Interest
i
ii
Periods Interest
per
per
year
period
iii
APR
(i x ii)
iv
Value
after
one year
v
Annually
compounded
interest rate
6%
6%
1.06
6.000%
1.032
= 1.0609
6.090
1.5
1.0154 = 1.06136
6.136
12
.5
1.00512 = 1.06168
6.168
52
.1154
1.00115452 = 1.06180
6.180
365
.0164
1.000164365 = 1.06183
6.183
Compound Interest
1- 54
Compound Interest
1- 55
Compound Interest
Example
Suppose you are offered an automobile loan at an APR of
6% per year. What does that mean, and what is the true
rate of interest, given monthly payments?
1- 56
Compound Interest
Example - continued
Suppose you are offered an automobile
loan at an APR of 6% per year. What
does that mean, and what is the true rate
of interest, given monthly payments?
Assume Rs.10,000 loan amount.
12
1- 57
Inflation
Inflation - Rate at which prices as a whole are
increasing.
Nominal Interest Rate - Rate at which money
invested grows.
Real Interest Rate - Rate at which the
purchasing power of an investment increases.
1- 58
1
+
n
o
m
i
a
l
n
t
e
r
s
a
t
e
1realintresat=fo
Inflation
1- 59
approximation formula
1
+
.
0
5
9
1
rA
lproxim
+
e
a
ian
tto
erns=
ate9-.0
=
3
2
2
r3=
5
o
.0
5%
6or2.6%
1- 60
Inflation
Example
If the interest rate on one year govt. bonds is 5.9%
and the inflation rate is 3.3%, what is the real
interest rate?
Savings
Bond
Topics Covered
Using PV Formulas to Value Bonds
How Common Stocks are Traded
How Common Stocks are Valued
Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital
Stock Prices and EPS
1- 61
1- 62
Valuing a Bond
Example
If today is January 2004, what is the value of the following bond?
A German Government bond (Bund) pays a 5.375 percent annual
coupon, every year for 6 years. The par value of the bond is 100
EURO.
Cash Flows
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
Valuing a Bond
Example continued
If today is January 2004, what is the value of the following bond?
A German Government bond (Bund) pays a 5.375 percent annual coupon, every
year for 6 years. The par value of the bond is 100 EURO.
The price at a 3.8% YTM is as follows
5.375
5.375
5.375
5.375 105.375
PV
2
3
4
5
1.038 1.038
1.038 1.038 1.038
$108.31
1- 63
Price
1- 64
Yield
1- 65
1- 66
1- 67
Trading of Stocks
Primary Market
Secondary Market
52 weeks
High
Low
Stock (SYM)
Div
Yield
PE
Vol
(100s)
Close
Net
Change
3449
1876.4
Infosys
(INFOSYSTCH)
0.2%
39.52
1539
3177.9
1.4%
D
i
v
1
1
0
E
xpectdR
eturnr0
Valuing Common Stocks
1- 68
1
0
E
xpectdR
eturn.15
Valuing Common Stocks
1- 69
D
i
v
1
C
apitlzaionR
ate
P
0r
g
1
0
Valuing Common Stocks
1- 70
Div1
Dividend Yield
P0
Return on Equity ROE
EPS
ROE
Book Equity Per Share
1- 71
iP
D
v
D
i
v
D
i
v
P
1
2
H
H
.
0(
1r)(1r)(1r)
Valuing Common Stocks
1- 72
1- 73
3.00
3.24
3.50 94.48
PV
1
2
3
(1 .12) (1 .12)
(1 .12)
PV Rs.75.00
1- 74
Div1
EPS1
Perpetuity P0
or
r
r
Assumes all earnings are
paid to shareholders.
1- 75
1- 76
Rs.3.00
Rs.100
.12 g
g .09
Answer
The market is
assuming the dividend
will grow at 9% per
year, indefinitely.
1- 77
1- 78
1- 79
1- 80
.P
g
.011R
2
5
4
0
s0.
Example
Our company forecasts to pay a Rs.8.33 dividend next year, which
represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a
15% expected return. Instead, we decide to plow back 40% of the
earnings at the firms current return on equity of 25%. What is the
value of the stock before and after the plowback decision?
No Growth
8.33
P0
Rs.55.56
.15
With Growth
1- 81
1- 82
1- 83
1- 84
Topics Covered
A Review of The Basics
NPV and its Competitors
Investment
opportunity (real
asset)
Firm
Invest
Shareholder
Alternative:
pay dividend
to shareholders
Investment
opportunities
(financial assets)
Shareholders invest
for themselves
1- 85
Managers rarely use this measurement to make decisions. The components reflect tax and accounting figures, not market values or cash
flows.
book income
Book rate of return
book assets
1- 86
Payback
The payback period of a project is the number of
years it takes before the cumulative forecasted
cash flow equals the initial outlay.
The payback rule says only accept projects that
payback in the desired time frame.
This method is flawed, primarily because it
ignores later year cash flows and the the present
value of future cash flows.
1- 87
P
a
y
b
c
k
P
roA
jC
eB
ct-2C
C
C
C
N
P
V
@
1
0
%
0
1
2
3
e
r
i
o
d
01580158050
Payback
Example
Examine the three projects and note the mistake
we would make if we insisted on only taking
projects with a payback period of 2 years or less.
1- 88
P
a
y
b
c
k
P
roA
jC
eB
ct-2C
C
C
C
N
P
V
@
1
0
%
0
1
2
3
e
r
i
o
d
0158015805023
2-5,6804
Payback
Example
Examine the three projects and note the mistake
we would make if we insisted on only taking
projects with a payback period of 2 years or less.
1- 89
1- 90
2
,
0
4
,
0
N
,IR
P
V
4
0
0
1
2
(2
I8
1
R
)
(
1
I
R
)
.%
Internal Rate of Return
Example
You can purchase a turbo powered machine tool gadget for Rs.4,000.
The investment will generate Rs.2,000 and Rs.4,000 in cash flows for
two years, respectively. What is the IRR on this investment?
1- 91
IRR=28%
1- 92
1- 93
Project
A
B
C0
C1
IRR
1,000 1,500 50%
1,000 1,500 50%
NPV @ 10%
364
364
C0 C1...... ......C9
60
12
12
C10
15
1- 94
300
Discount
Rate
0
-30
-600
IRR=-44%
1- 95
Profitability Index
When resources are limited, the profitability index
(PI) provides a tool for selecting among various
project combinations and alternatives
A set of limited resources and projects can yield
various combinations.
The highest weighted average PI can indicate
which projects to select.
1- 96
Profitability Index
Cash Flows (Rs. millions)
Project
Project CC00
AA
10
10
BB
55
CC
55
CC1
CC2 NPV
@
10
%
NPV
@
10
%
1
2
30
21
30 55
21
55 20
16
20
16
55 15
12
15
12
1- 97
Profitability Index
Cash Flows (Rs. millions)
Project
Project Investment
Investment(Rs.)
(Rs.) NPV
NPV(Rs.)
(Rs.) Profitability
ProfitabilityIndex
Index
AA
10
21
2.1
10
21
2.1
BB
55
16
3.2
16
3.2
CC
55
12
2.4
12
2.4
1- 98
Profitability Index
NPV
Profitability Index
Investment
Example
We only have Rs.300,000 to invest. Which do we select?
Proj NPV
A 230,000
B 141,250
C 194,250
D 162,000
Investment
200,000
125,000
175,000
150,000
PI
1.15
1.13
1.11
1.08
1- 99
Profitability Index
Example - continued
Proj NPV Investment
A 230,000
200,000
B 141,250
125,000
C 194,250
175,000
D 162,000
150,000
PI
1.15
1.13
1.11
1.08
1- 100
Profitability Index
Example - continued
Proj NPV Investment
A 230,000
200,000
B 141,250
125,000
C 194,250
175,000
D 162,000
150,000
PI
1.15
1.13
1.11
1.08
1- 101
Inflation
INFLATION RULE
Be consistent in how you handle inflation!!
Use nominal interest rates to discount
nominal cash flows.
Use real interest rates to discount real cash
flows.
You will get the same results, whether you
use nominal or real figures
1- 102
Inflation
Example
You own a lease that will cost you Rs.8,000 next
year, increasing at 3% a year (the forecasted
inflation rate) for 3 additional years (4 years
total). If discount rates are 10% what is the
present value cost of the lease?
1+nominal interest rate
1 real interest rate =
1+inflation rate
1- 103
1- 104
Inflation
Example - nominal figures
Year Cash Flow
PV @ 10%
8000
8000x1.03=8240
8000
1.10
8240
1.102
7272.73
6809.92
8000x1.03 =8240
8487.20
1.103
6376.56
8000x1.033 =8487.20
8741.82
1.104
5970.78
Rs.26, 429.99
1- 105
Inflation
Example - real figures
Year
Cash Flow
PV@6.7961%
1
2
8000
1.03
8240
1.032
=7766.99
=7766.99
7766.99
1.068
7766.99
1.0682
7272.73
6809.92
8487.20
1.033
=7766.99
7766.99
1.0683
6376.56
8741.82
1.034
=7766.99
7766.99
1.0684
5970.78
= Rs.26, 429.99
Timing
Even projects with positive NPV may be
more valuable if deferred.
The actual NPV is then the current value of
some future value of the deferred project.
1- 106
1- 107
Timing
Example
You may harvest a set of trees at anytime over the
next 5 years. Given the FV of delaying the
harvest, which harvest date maximizes current
NPV?
Harvest Year
0
77.5
89.4
% change in value
20.3
15.4 11.9
28.8
100 109.4
9.4
Timing
Example - continued
You may harvest a set of trees at anytime over the next 5 years. Given
the FV of delaying the harvest, which harvest date maximizes current
NPV?
64.4
NPV if harvested in year 1
58.5
1.10
1- 108
6
4
.
N
P
V
ifharvestdinyear1058.
1- 109
Timing
Example - continued
You may harvest a set of trees at anytime over the next 5 years. Given
the FV of delaying the harvest, which harvest date maximizes current
NPV?
Harvest Year
2
3
64.0
Topics Covered
Measuring Portfolio Risk
Calculating Portfolio Risk
Beta and Unique Risk
Diversification & Value Additivity
1- 110
Measuring Risk
Variance - Average value of squared deviations from
mean. A measure of volatility.
Standard Deviation - Average value of squared
deviations from mean. A measure of volatility.
1- 111
1- 112
Measuring Risk
Coin Toss Game-calculating variance and standard deviation
For each head, you get the starting balance plus 30%;
For each tail, you get your starting balance less 10%.
(1)
Percent Rate of
Return ()
+100
+20
-60
(2)
Deviation from
Expected Return
( - r)
+80
0
-80
(3)
Squared Deviation
2
( - r)
(4)
Probability
6400
0.25
0
0.5
6400
0.25
2
Variance = Expected value of ( - r) =
Standard deviation =
variance 800
(5)
Probability
Squared
Deviation
1600
0
1600
3200
56.5685425
Measuring Risk
Diversification - Strategy designed to reduce risk
by spreading the portfolio across many
investments.
Unique Risk - Risk factors affecting only that firm.
Also called diversifiable risk.
Market Risk - Economy-wide sources of risk that
affect the overall stock market. Also called
systematic risk.
1- 113
1- 114
Measuring Risk
(
(
)(
)(
Portfolio rate
fraction of portfolio
=
x
of return
in first asset
+
fraction of portfolio
in second asset
rate of return
on first asset
rate of return
)
)
on second asset
Measuring Risk
1- 115
Measuring Risk
1- 116
1- 117
Portfolio Risk
The variance of a two stock portfolio is the sum of these
four boxes
Stock 1
Stock 1
Stock 2
x 12 12
x 1x 2 12
x 1x 2 12 1 2
Stock 2
x 1x 2 12
x 1x 2 12 1 2
x 22 22
Portfolio Risk
Example
Suppose you invest 47% of your portfolio in
Reliance Energy and 53% in Grasim Industries.
The expected return on your Reliance Energy
stock is 17% and on Grasim is 14%. The expected
return on your portfolio is:
1- 118
Portfolio Risk
1- 119
Example
Suppose you invest 47% of your portfolio in Reliance Energy and 53%
in Grasim Industries. The expected return on your Reliance Energy
stock is 17% and on Grasim is 14%. The standard deviation of their
Reliance Energy
Reliance Energy
x12 12 (0.47)2 (37) 2
Grasim
x1 x2 12 1 2
(0.47) (0.53) 1 (37) (33)
Grasim
x1 x2 12 1 2
(0.47) (0.53) 1 (37) (33)
Portfolio Risk
1- 120
Example
Suppose you invest 47% of your portfolio in Reliance Energy and 53%
in Grasim Industries. The expected return on your Reliance Energy
stock is 17% and on Grasim is 14%. The standard deviation of their
annualized daily returns are 37% and 33%, respectively. Assume a
correlation coefficient of 1.0 and calculate the portfolio variance.
Portfolio variance = [(0.47)2 (37)2] + [(0.53)2 (33)2] +2 (0.47 0.53 1 33 37)
= 1216.61
1216.61
34.88 percent
Portfolio Risk
1- 121
Portfolio Variance x 12 12 x 22 22 2( x 1x 2 12 1 2 )
1- 122
Expected
stock
return
beta
-10%
+10%
- 10%
+10%
-10%
Expected
market
return
1- 123
im
Bi 2
m
1- 124
1- 125
1- 126
Topics Covered
Markowitz Portfolio Theory
Risk and Return Relationship
Validity and the Role of the CAPM
1- 127
1- 128
%
probability
Investment A
% return
1- 129
%
probability
Investment B
% return
1- 130
%
probability
Investment C
% return
1- 131
%
probability
Investment D
% return
1- 132
1- 133
Efficient Frontier
Each half egg shell represents the possible weighted combinations for two
stocks.
The composite of all stock sets constitutes the efficient frontier
Expected Return (%)
Standard Deviation
1- 134
Efficient Frontier
Lending or Borrowing at the risk free rate ( rf) allows us to exist outside the
efficient frontier.
Expected Return (%)
in
nd
e
L
Bo
wi
o
r
r
ng
rf
S
Standard Deviation
1- 135
Efficient Frontier
Example
Stocks
ABC Corp
Big Corp
28
42
Correlation Coefficient = .4
% of Portfolio
Avg Return
60%
15%
40%
21%
1- 136
Efficient Frontier
Example
Stocks
ABC Corp
Big Corp
28
42
Correlation Coefficient = .4
% of Portfolio
Avg Return
60%
15%
40%
21%
1- 137
Efficient Frontier
Example
Stocks
Portfolio
New Corp
28.1
30
Correlation Coefficient = .3
% of Portfolio
Avg Return
50%
17.4%
50%
19%
1- 138
Efficient Frontier
Example
Stocks
Portfolio
New Corp
28.1
30
Correlation Coefficient = .3
% of Portfolio
Avg Return
50%
17.4%
50%
19%
1- 139
1- 140
Efficient Frontier
Return
B
A
Risk
(measured
as )
1- 141
Efficient Frontier
Return
B
AB
A
Risk
1- 142
Efficient Frontier
Return
AB
A
Risk
1- 143
Efficient Frontier
Return
ABN AB
A
Risk
1- 144
Efficient Frontier
Goal is to move
up and left.
Return
WHY?
ABN AB
A
Risk
1- 145
Efficient Frontier
Return
Low Risk
High Risk
High Return
High Return
Low Risk
High Risk
Low Return
Low Return
Risk
1- 146
Efficient Frontier
Return
Low Risk
High Risk
High Return
High Return
Low Risk
High Risk
Low Return
Low Return
Risk
1- 147
Efficient Frontier
Return
ABN AB
A
Risk
1- 148
Return
Market Return = rm
Efficient Portfolio
Risk Free
Return
rf
Risk
1- 149
Market Return = rm
.
Efficient Portfolio
Risk Free
Return
rf
1.0
BETA
1- 150
.
Risk Free
Return
rf
Security Market
Line (SML)
BETA
rf
1.0
BETA
SML Equation = rf + B ( rm - rf )
1- 151
R = rf + B ( r m - rf )
CAPM
1- 152
30
20
SML
Investors
10
Market
Portfolio
1.0
Portfolio Beta
1- 153
SML
30
20
Investors
Market
Portfolio
10
1.0
Portfolio Beta
1- 154
30
20
SML
Investors
10
Market
Portfolio
1.0
Portfolio Beta
1- 155
1- 156
(log scale)
2003
http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
1- 157
Stocks
(and other risky assets)
Wealth is uncertain
Market risk
makes wealth
uncertain.
Standard
Wealth
CAPM
Consumption is uncertain
Wealth = market
portfolio
Consumption
Consumption
CAPM
1- 158
Topics Covered
Company and Project Costs of Capital
Measuring the Cost of Equity
Setting Discount Rates w/o Beta
Certainty Equivalents
Discount Rates for International Projects
1- 159
Category
Speculative Ventures
Discount Rate
30%
New products
Expansion of existing business
20%
15% (Company COC)
1- 160
Required
return
13
Company Cost
of Capital
5.5
1.26
Project Beta
1- 161
Measuring Betas
The SML shows the relationship between
return and risk
CAPM uses Beta as a proxy for risk
Other methods can be employed to
determine the slope of the SML and thus
Beta
Regression analysis can be used to find
Beta
1- 162
1- 163
Measuring Betas
HLL
HLL return, percent
20
15
R = 0.42
10
5
0
-20
-15
-10
-5
-5
R2 = .42
-10
B = 0.63
-20
-15
10
15
20
1- 164
Measuring Betas
HLL
Price data: Jan 02- Dec 05
= 0.91
20
15
R = 0.49
10
5
R2 = .49
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
-5 0
-10
-15
B = 0.91
-20
10
15
20
Market return,
percent
Jan 2002-Dec 2005
1- 165
Measuring Betas
Tata Steel
Price data: Jan 98 Dec 01
R2 = 0.35
= 1.03
20
10
0
-20
-15
-10
-5
R2 = .35
-10
B = 1.03
-30
-20
Market
return,15
percent
5
10
20
1- 166
Measuring Betas
Tata Steel
Price data: Jan 02 Dec 05
= 1.29
30
R = 0.52
20
10
-20
R2 = .52
B = 1.29
-15
-10
-5
0
-10 0
-20
-30
10
15
20
Market return,
percent
Jan 2002-Dec 2005
1- 167
Measuring Betas
HFCL
Price data: Jan 98 Dec 01
100
= 3.09
80
60
R = 0.38
40
20
0
-20
R = .38
2
B = 3.09
-15
-10
-5
-20 0
-40
-60
-80
-100
10
15
Market return,
percent
20
1- 168
Measuring Betas
HFCL
Price data: Jan 02 Dec 05
R2 = 0.13
= 1.56
20
10
0
-20
R = .13
2
B = 1.56
-15
-10
-5
0
-10
-20
10
15
20
Market return,
Janpercent
2002-Dec 2005
1- 169
Estimated Betas
equity
Andhra Cements Ltd.
India Cements Ltd.
Madras Cements Ltd.
Shree Digvijay Cement Co. Ltd.
Cement Portfolio
0.99
1.40
0.90
1.74
1.26
Standard Error
0.62
0.32
0.20
0.48
0.29
1- 170
Beta Stability
RISK
CLASS
% IN SAME
CLASS 5
YEARS LATER
% WITHIN ONE
CLASS 5
YEARS LATER
10 (High betas)
35
69
18
54
16
45
13
41
14
39
14
42
13
40
16
45
21
61
1 (Low betas)
40
62
1- 171
1- 172
Capital Structure
Capital Structure - the mix of debt & equity within a
company
Expand CAPM to include CS
R = r f + B ( rm - r f )
becomes
Requity = rf + B ( rm - rf )
1- 173
(V)
(V)
IMPORTANT
E, D, and V are
all market values
1- 174
Bdebt
Bassets
Bequity
1- 175
Asset Betas
1- 176
PV(fixed
cost)
PV(fixed
cost)
BBrevenue BBfixed cost
revenue
fixed cost PV(revenue )
PV(revenue)
PV(variabl
eecost)
PV(asset)
PV(variabl
cost)
BBvariable cost
BBasset PV(asset)
variable cost
asset PV(revenue )
PV(revenue
)
PV(revenue)
PV(revenue)
Asset Betas
PV(revenue
))--PV(variabl
eecost)
PV(revenue
PV(variabl
cost)
BBasset BBrevenue
asset
revenue
PV(asset)
PV(asset)
PV(fixed
cost)
PV(fixed
cost)
BBrevenue 11
revenue
PV(asset)
PV(asset)
1- 177
Ct
CEQt
PV
t
t
(1 r )
(1 rf )
1- 178
1- 179
r rf B ( rm rf )
6 .75(8)
12%
1- 180
r
(62%
r.758mf)
B
f1
1- 181
Example
Project A is expected to produce CF = Rs.100 million for each of three
years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta
of .75, what is the PV of the project?
Year
Project A
Cash Flow PV @ 12%
100
89.3
2
3
100
100
79.7
71.2
Total PV
240.2
r
(62%
r.758mf)
B
f1
Example
Project A is expected to produce CF = Rs.100 million for each of three
years. Given a risk free rate of 6%, a market premium of 8%, and beta
of .75, what is the PV of the project?
Project A
Year
1
2
100
100
89.3
79.7
100
Total PV
71.2
240.2
1- 182
1- 183
Year
1
2
3
Project A
Cash Flow PV @ 12%
100
89.3
100
79.7
100
71.2
Total PV
240.2
Year
Project B
Cash Flow PV @ 6%
94.6
89.3
2
3
89.6
84.8
79.7
71.2
Total PV
240.2
Year
1
2
3
Project A
Cash Flow PV @ 12%
100
89.3
100
79.7
100
71.2
Total PV
240.2
Year
1
2
3
Project B
Cash Flow PV @ 6%
94.6
89.3
89.6
79.7
84.8
71.2
Total PV
240.2
1- 184
Year
1
2
3
Deduction
Cash Flow CEQ
for risk
100
94.6
5.4
100
89.6
10.4
100
84.8
15.2
1- 185
1- 186
100
Year 1
94.6
1.054
Year 2
100
89.6
2
1.054
100
Year 3
84.8
3
1.054
1- 187