Recommended Text Book

Probability and Statistics for

Engineers and Scientists
(7th Edition)
Ronald Walpole
Raymond H. Myers
Sharon L. Meyers
Keying Ye
Pearson Education Singapore

Probability Distribution Function

P( X x) p( x)

j 1

P[a x b] f ( x)dx
a

f ( x)dx 1

Some Probability Distributions

Normal
Exponential
Chi Square
t
F
Bimomial
Poisson

Normal Distribution

e
f ( x)

( x )2

2
2

When =0 =1

f ( x)

x2

/2
2

The Normal Curve

Cumulative Distribution Function

F ( x) P ( X x)
x

F ( x)

f ( x)dx

Useful MS Excel work sheet functions

NORMDIST(x,,,CUM)
NORMSDIST(z)

Area under the normal curve

84%

Cumulative Distribution Curve

-3.000

0.001

-2.500

0.006

-1.500

0.067

-1.000

0.159

-0.500

0.309

0.000

0.500

0.500

0.691

1.000

0.841

1.500

0.933

2.000

0.977

2.500

0.994

3.000

0.999

Example
The daily demand for a product is normally
distributed with a mean of 350 and a
standard deviation of 20. What is the
probability that the demand on any day will
be less than 320
NORMDIST(320,350,20,1)=0.0668

Using the N(0,1) Distribution

When X is normally distributed with mean
of and standard deviation of
(x )/ will be normally distributed with
mean of 0 and SD of 1
(x )/ is denoted by letter z
(x )/ = (320-350)/20= - 1.5
NORMSDIST(- 1.5) will give the same
result

Area under the normal curve

z

area

area

area

area

-3.000

0.001

-1.400

0.081

0.200

0.579

1.800

0.964

-2.800

0.003

-1.200

0.115

0.400

0.655

2.000

0.977

-2.600

0.005

-1.000

0.159

0.600

0.726

2.200

0.986

-2.400

0.008

-0.800

0.212

0.800

0.788

2.400

0.992

-2.200

0.014

-0.600

0.274

1.000

0.841

2.600

0.995

-2.000

0.023

-0.400

0.345

1.200

0.885

2.800

0.997

-1.800

0.036

-0.200

0.421

1.400

0.919

3.000

0.999

-1.600

0.055

0.000

0.500

1.600

0.945

3.200

0.999

Inverse Distribution function

P[ X G ( )]
Useful work sheet functions
NORMINV(p, ,)
NORMSINV(p)

Inverse Distribution Function

Example
The daily demand for a product is normally
distributed with a mean of 350 and a
standard deviation of 20. What should be
the minimum inventory if a service rate of
90 % is desired
NORMINV(0.90,350,20)=375.63
NORMINV(0.90)=1.281
Z=(x 350)/20 = 1.281=375.63

Survival Function

S ( x) P( X x) 1 F ( x)

Survival Function

-3.000

0.001

0.999

-2.500

0.006

0.994

-2.000

0.023

0.977

-1.500

0.067

0.933

-1.000

0.159

0.841

-0.500

0.309

0.691

0.000

0.500

0.500

0.500

0.691

0.309

1.000

0.841

0.159

1.500

0.933

0.067

2.000

0.977

0.023

2.500

0.994

0.006

3.000

0.999

0.001

Survival
Function

Cumulative
pdf

Inverse Survival Function

0.999

-3.000

0.994

-2.500

0.977

-2.000

0.933

-1.500

0.841

-1.000

0.691

-0.500

0.500

0.000

0.309

0.500

0.159

1.000

0.067

1.500

0.023

2.000

0.006

2.500

0.001

3.000

Hazard Function

f ( x)
f ( x)
h( x )

S ( x) 1 F ( x)

Hazard Function Curve

Cumulative Hazard Function

H ( x) h( )d

Rectangular Distribution
1
f ( x)
,A x B
B A
When A=0, B=1
f(x)=1

Probability Density Function

Cumulative Density Function

Survival Function

The Normal Distribution

Importance of
Suppose a variable is defined as under
X= x1+ x2+ x3+ x4+ x5 ..
If x1, x2, x3, x4, x5 etc. are small compared to
, then X will have a normal distribution

Exponential Distribution
Exponential Distribution is used in
Reliability Analysis the time for failure of a
component or a system
Probability density function is given by
f(x)=e-x Where denotes the average
failure rate
F(k)= P(X<k)
=1-e-k

Exponential Distribution

Cumulative Density Function

Hazard Function

Cumulative Hazard Function

Example
An electronic component has an average
life of 500 hours. What is the probability
that a component will last for 600 hour or
more

X is the life of the component

P(X> 600)=1-e -(1/500)600 = 0.301

Poisson Distribution
When time between failures has an exponential
distribution, the number of failures in unit time will have
a Poisson Distribution
Suppose a random variable X has a Poisson
distribution with average of The probability that x will
be have a value of r is given by

e
P(r )
r!

Poisson Distribution (Cont)

Suppose a machine breaks down, on the average,
once in 10 days. What is the probability that it will
break down four times in a month of 30 days

r e 34 e 3
Px=4) =
= 0.168

r!

r!

Worksheet function
poisson(x,MEAN, CUM) returns
Poisson Probabilities

0.050

0.050

0.149

0.199

0.224

0.423

0.224

0.647

0.168

0.815

0.101

0.916

0.050

0.966

0.022

0.988

0.008

0.996

0.003

0.999

10

0.001

1.000

Binomial Distribution
Probability of r successes in n
trials is given by

P (r ) Cr P (1 p )
n

nr

Worksheet function
binomdist(x, n, p, CUM)
Returns Binomial Probabilities

Example
A coin is tossed 10 times. What is the
probability of 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10
heads?
10 r

P(r ) Cr (0.5) (1 0.5)

10

Probability of r heads when a coin

is tossed 10 times
0

0.001

0.001

0.010

0.011

0.044

0.055

0.117

0.172

0.205

0.377

0.246

0.623

0.205

0.828

0.117

0.945

0.044

0.989

0.010

0.999

10

0.001

1.000

Example
A lot contains 50 products out of which 5 are
defective. What is the probability that a random
sample of 10 will not contain any defective units
,N=50, r=10, p=0.10

P (r ) Cr (0.1) (1 0.1)
50

= BINOMDIST(0, 10, 0.1, 0)

=0.3487

50 r

Poisson Assumption of Binomial

Distribution
A Binomial distribution may be approximated
by a Poisson distribution when n is large and p
is small so that np is a small quantity (< 10)
N=10, p=0.1 np=1
P(0)= POISSON(0,1,0) = 0.3678

Normal Assumption to
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution with parameters n
and p will have:
Mean of np
Variance of np(1-p)
It can be approximated to a normal
distribution with the same parameters

An Example
A machine produces 10 % defectives. What is the
probability that a sample of 100 products will show 15
defectives or less
Binomial distribution
Mean = 10
Variance = 100*0.1*0.9=9
SD=3
Assuming a normal distribution with same parameters
Z=(15-10)/3=5/3=1.66
P( No. of defectives < 15)=0.9515

Example
The daily demand for a product is is 400
with a standard deviation of 20 units. What
is the minimum opening inventory required
to meet the demand with a probability of
90%.
For service rate of 90 %
Z = NORMINV(0.90)=1.281
(X-400)/20=1.281
X=425.6 or 427

Example
A time to complete an order is normally
distributed with a mean of 100 days with a
sd of 10 days. What delivery time should
you suggest to if the risk of inability to
meet the due date is limited to 5 %.
Survival Function S=0.05
Cumulative probability function = 0.95
Delivery period = NORMINV(0.95,100,10)
=116.5